Racing Insights: Who will rule Charlotte’s fall oval return?

It’s a home game for the NASCAR Cup Series on Sunday, as Charlotte Motor Speedway — just down the road from many race shops — plays host to the Bank of America 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). But for the first time in nine years, the annual fall race is set for the 1.5-mile oval, a change from the infield road course that hosted NASCAR’s postseason from 2018-2025.

Sunday’s 267-lap race marks the third consecutive Chase presented by Mobil 1 event on an intermediate. It’s a key opportunity for championship-contending drivers to accumulate major points before Phoenix Raceway and Martinsville Speedway sandwich Talladega Superspeedway over the next stretch. Look no further than Denny Hamlin, who finished 16th last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and needs a strong result to remain firmly in the title fight. He enters Charlotte 40 points behind Kyle Larson after starting The Chase with a 25-point advantage.

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With the Queen City on deck, take a look at drivers to keep an eye on over 400 miles, and keep reading for Racing Insights’ full race projections as postseason pressure continues to rise.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: No driver in the Cup Series is hotter than Larson, who’s now earned five straight top-five finishes to open The Chase. He fell a lap down early at Las Vegas due to handling issues and a lengthy pit stop but battled through adversity to nearly claim the South Point 400 win. The two-time and defending series champion has averaged 54.6 points per race since the start of September, a massive jump from 27.85 points during the regular season. His 2.2 average finish is the best all-time through five postseason races, doubling as the second-best five-race stretch of his career. Larson is one of the best on intermediates, scoring a series-best 20 stage wins and leading 2,192 laps at 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen era. His results have been inconsistent at Charlotte, though, with an 18.1 average finish and just one win.

DENNY HAMLIN: With a car that he considered race-winning caliber, Hamlin spun from third late in Stage 1 at Las Vegas and never recovered. His finish outside the top 15 marked his first result worse than fifth at a 1.5-mile track since May last year, adding 14 points to his deficit to Larson. At minus 40, it’s the most the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team has trailed in points since Michigan in June. Hamlin has just one win in 35 oval Charlotte starts but has finished inside the top 10 in five of the last seven. He led 75 laps there in the spring and arguably had the best car before rain shortened the event and resulted in a Daniel Suarez victory. This weekend could make or break Hamlin’s championship hopes, and he’ll have some work to do – starting 12th after rain washed out practice and qualifying.

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Trailing Larson by 55 points, Bell continues to lurk but understands that he’ll need to click off multiple wins over the final five races to stay in the thick of the championship. That said, Charlotte serves as a great opportunity for the No. 20 JGR team to capitalize. Bell has a pair of podium finishes in the last three Charlotte oval events, including a 2024 Coca-Cola 600 victory. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of the five Next Gen races, ranking sixth or better in points earned in each of those events, with an average finish of eighth. His average finish (11.75) is fourth-best all-time at Charlotte and second-best among active drivers (Tyler Reddick, 9.5). Through five Chase races, Bell has scored the second-most points (213), trailing only Larson. Like teammate Hamlin, Charlotte could determine whether Bell remains a viable title threat.

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR BANK OF AMERICA 400 (3 p.m. ET, USA)