Editor’s Note: Keep tabs on this page for lineup advice following qualifying, including changes you should consider.
With four races remaining in the 2026 Cup Series season, the cream has risen to the top of The Chase presented by Mobil 1. The six drivers who have separated themselves from the pack have combined to win 10 of the last 14 visits to Phoenix Raceway, with Ryan Blaney chasing history as he aims to become just the third driver to win three consecutive races in the Sonoran Desert, joining Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson. In the fantasy realm, though, the battle will be Team Penske versus the field.
Returning to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can come play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced in 2024 where strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2026 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.
MUST START
Driver: Ryan Blaney, Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Selections remaining: 3
Comment: Blaney scored his crowning achievement at Phoenix in 2023, hoisting the Bill France Cup. But he has been stellar here for years, placing inside the top two positions in six of the last eight visits. The No. 12 pit crew – now with Austin Cindric – had multiple woes during the spring race and Blaney still rebounded to win.
Driver: Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Selections remaining: 2
Comment: Outside of the Penske walls, Bell seems to loom as Blaney’s toughest opponent in “The Valley of the Sun.” The No. 20 team has won twice in its last five trips to Phoenix, with four top-five efforts during that span. Bell led a race-high 176 laps in the spring but left dejected after the first of his eight runner-up finishes in 2026.
Driver: Joey Logano, Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Selections remaining: 4
Comment: Despite a 92-point deficit, don’t count the three-time Cup titleist out yet. Logano has captured four checkered flags at Phoenix, tied for his most at any race track (Las Vegas Motor Speedway). Team Penske thrives on flat tracks, and Logano has won this race – and the championship – twice in the last four years.
DRIVERS TO AVOID
Driver: Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota
Selections remaining: 4
Comment: Gibbs has been streaky at Phoenix since joining the big leagues, though he placed fourth in March. His two victories have come at short tracks in 2026, but an average finish of 20.3 here ranks him 13th out of the 16 championship hopefuls.
Driver: Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 5
Comment: Hocevar trails Gibbs among Chasers with a 22.7 average finish, tied with Ryan Preece for 14th among the 16 Chase drivers. His Phoenix struggles are apparent, with three consecutive finishes of 20th or worse and a best result of 15th in six starts.
SLEEPERS OF THE WEEK
Driver: William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Selections remaining: 3
Comment: Byron’s championship hopes may be fading, but his Phoenix numbers shouldn’t be overlooked. The 2023 winner has finished seventh or better in six of his last eight starts at the Avondale oval and leads all drivers in laps spent inside the top five (1,963) and top 10 (2,510) in the Next Gen car.
Driver: Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Selections remaining: 4
Comment: We are all in on Team Penske this weekend, which includes its affiliate Wood Brothers Racing. Berry has been phenomenal down the stretch, especially at flatter venues. Two of his three Phoenix top 10s have come in the famed No. 21 machine, earning a personal best of fourth place (March 2025).
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Kyle Larson vs. Denny Hamlin
Pick: Hamlin
Comment: Hamlin has lost ground to Larson in all six Chase races, but Larson believes Phoenix is a wild card for the No. 5 team as the finishes have overshadowed the performance in recent years. Hamlin led 208 of 319 laps last year, and the Chris Gayle-led group should come out swinging.
Ryan Blaney vs. Christopher Bell
Pick: Blaney
Comment: This is a dead heat to call, as Phoenix ranks among both drivers’ best venues. Blaney gets the historical edge, with six top-two finishes in the last eight races. It may take a win to settle this one.
Chase Briscoe vs. Joey Logano
Pick: Logano
Comment: With back-to-back victories, Briscoe is the hottest driver in Cup, shaving 58 points from Larson’s lead in just two weeks. Despite being a former Phoenix winner, he faces an uphill battle against Logano, with Team Penske poised to come out guns blazing at one of its strongest tracks.
Bubba Wallace vs. Chase Elliott
Pick: Wallace
Comment: History favors Elliott, who clinched the 2020 championship with a walk-off victory at Phoenix. But the No. 9 team hasn’t scored a top-five finish here since 2021 and has managed just one since its May victory at Texas, which came at Richmond. Wallace offers more upside this weekend, with a pair of top 10s in the last four appearances.
MY LINEUP
Starting five: Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Josh Berry, William Byron.
Garage: Austin Cindric.
36 FOR 36
Pick: Riley Herbst, 23XI Racing, No. 35 Toyota
Comment: Getting down to the nitty-gritty part of the 2026 season, there are limited options here. Herbst is a formidable Phoenix player, winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts Series season finale in 2024 in dominant fashion. His best Cup finish in three Phoenix starts is 18th, which came earlier this season, and his results have improved with each visit.