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June 27, 2015

Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Toyota/Save Mart 350


Get last minute fantasy tips ahead of Sunday’s race (3 p.m. ET, FS1)

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MORE: Full starting lineup for Sonoma

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Sonoma Raceway’s 1.99 mile road course for the 16th race of the season, the Toyota/SaveMart 350. Fantasy Cheat Sheet took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke to NASCAR contacts to provide you with the most accurate fantasy preview of Sunday’s race.

When: Sunday, June 28; 3:19 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1, PRN, SiriusXM)

Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 82; wind out of the WSW at 10 mph. There is a zero percent chance of precipitation.

The Track: Sonoma Raceway | Learn more about the track

Sonoma is a 1.99 mile road course. It has 10 turns including some of the only right-hand turns NASCAR drivers will make all season.

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Key to Race: GORDON, BORIS, AND THE BOYS

Jeff Gordon has been the King of Road Courses. He has the most road course wins in NASCAR history with nine and the most wins at Sonoma with five. Martin Truex Jr. Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, and Kurt Busch all have been successful at Sonoma lately. Then there is the road track specialist Boris Said who is always a threat to steal a win on road courses.

Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Top 5

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has been awesome at Sonoma. He has finished second in three of the last four races at the track and will be looking to notch his first win of the 2015 campaign.

No. 78 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. was awesome on both road course races in 2013. He has made himself into an option every weekend.

No. 15 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has finished inside the top eight in six of the past eight races (including a 2012 win) at Sonoma. He will be fast once again.

No. 41 Kurt Busch: Busch has a win and six top-five finishes in 14 career Sonoma starts. He finished third at The Glen last year and we like his chances on Sunday.

No. 19 Carl Edwards: Edwards won last year at Sonoma and he has three top-five finishes in the last five races at the track. He is a great option.

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6 to 10

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson won the 2010 edition of this race, but has been inconsistent at the track. We like him to finish just outside the top five.

No. 5 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has been awesome in four of the past six trips to Sonoma. We like his chances for another top 10 finish this weekend.

No. 22 Joey Logano: Logano was terrific in four of the last six road course races. We recommend using him in nearly all leagues.

No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has finished in the top 15 in nine of his 12 career Sonoma starts. He is a solid option on Sunday.

No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has appeared to have solved the mystery of driving road courses. He cracked the top 11 in both races last year and is someone to keep an eye on this weekend.

11 to 20

No. 4 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been hit-or-miss at Sonoma during his career. He won’t match his second-place finish of 2007 or third-place finish of 2010, but he should crack the top 15.

No. 18 Kyle Busch: Rowdy took the checkers at Watkins Glen in 2013. He will be one of the cars to beat this weekend.

No. 47 AJ Allmendinger: Allmendinger won at The Glen last year and has driven well at Sonoma. He isn’t a bad fifth driver.

No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has been excellent at Sonoma. In 16 career starts he has two wins and nine top 10 finishes. Smoke could finally make some noise this weekend.

No. 31 Ryan Newman: Newman is a good option on Sunday. In 13 career starts at Sonoma he has five top-10 finishes.

No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray finished in the top 15 at both road course races last year. He could make some noise on Sunday.

No. 2 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was terrible at both road courses last year. There are better weekends to use him.

No. 27 Paul Menard: Menard cracked the top 10 at Sonoma last year. He is a nice third or fourth driver this weekend.

No. 10 Danica Patrick: Patrick cracked the top 21 in both road course races last season. She is a decent sleeper pick this weekend.

No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has cracked the top 15 in just three of his nine career starts at Sonoma. The talented driver has showed he can drive on any surface and any track configuration, but this is a weekend to stay away from him.

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21 to 30

No. 32 Boris Said: Said has five top-10 finishes in 15 career starts at Sonoma. The road course master is an excellent pick this weekend to round-out your roster.

No. 42 Kyle Larson: Larson was awesome at The Glen last year. We will see if he can build on that momentum this weekend.

No. 20 Matt Kenseth: We recommend steering clear of the talented Kenseth this weekend. In 15 career starts at Sonoma he has just one top 10 finish.

No. 3 Austin Dillon: Dillon cracked the top 20 in both road course starts last year. He is just a weak option in most leagues.

No. 13 Casey Mears: Mears has averaged just above a 20th place finish at Sonoma during his career. We like a road course warrior like Boris Said much better than Mears this weekend.

No. 9 Sam Hornish Jr.: You wouldn’t know that Hornish came from open-wheel racing based on his previous runs at Sonoma. In three career starts he has averaged just a 35th place finish. There is certainly room for improvement from him.

No. 43 Aric Almirola: Almirola has been pretty bad at Sonoma in his previous starts. This isn’t a great weekend to use him.

No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse has showed mostly poor efforts on road courses so far in his career. He isn’t worth taking a chance on.

No. 38 David Gilliland: Gilliland finished second in the 2008 edition of this race. He won’t be that fast this time around, but he might be worth using in very deep leagues.

No. 55 David Ragan: Ragan has averaged a 27th place finish on road courses during his career. There are much better options this weekend.

Field Fillers:

No. 6 Trevor Bayne
No. 95 Michael McDowell
No. 33 Alex Kennedy
No. 34 Justin Marks
No. 35 Cole Whitt
No. 23 JJ Yeley
No. 7 Alex Bowman
No. 46 Michael Annett
No. 98 Josh Wise
No. 40 Landon Cassill
No. 51 Justin Allgaier
No. 26 Jeb Burton
No. 83 Matt DiBenedetto

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