Since 2004, 81 percent of field has been in playoff position before May event
The NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race break provides a chance to look back at the first 11 years of the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup era to see which drivers that made the Chase each year were in the field by this point and which dropped out. We’re nearly halfway through the 26-race regular season and a quarter of the way through the 2015 schedule.
Before we break down each season at the break, let’s look back at Chase history. From 2004-2006, the top 10 drivers after the Richmond race made Chase.
The field expanded to 12 from 2007-2013, and from 2011-2013, two Wild Card entries rounded out the dozen playoff teams as the drivers with the most wins in the top 20 in points made the Chase. But in the final year of that format, a 13th driver was added by NASCAR Chairman and CEO Brian France
In 2014, 16 drivers made the Chase based on wins and top-30 points performances with the fielded rounded out by drivers up in the points without wins.
For comparison’s sake across different formats, we’ll look at which drivers were in the top 10 at the all-star break for the first three years of the Chase, the top 12 for the next seven and the top 16 last year.
Here’s a year-by-year look:
2004 / 8 of 10: In the inaugural Chase, once and future champions Bobby Labonte (7th) and Kevin Harvick (8th) fell out of the Chase in favor of Mark Martin (12th) and Jeremy Mayfield (16th) as the other eight drivers after the 11th race of the season at Richmond would make the Chase. Winning has been important since the start of the Chase with Martin earning a victory two weeks after the all-star break, and Mayfield going to Victory Lane for the cutoff race at Richmond.
2005 / 6 of 10: In the biggest shakeup between the all-star break and the playoffs cutoff in the Chase era, four drivers would fail to make the postseason. Jeff Gordon (3rd), Elliott Sadler (4th), Kevin Harvick (8th) and Jamie McMurray (9th) would be replaced in the top 10 after Richmond in September by Rusty Wallace (12th), Carl Edwards (13th), Jeremy Mayfield (16th) and Matt Kenseth (21st). Mayfield and Kenseth won back-to-back August races at Michigan and Bristol to help propel them into the Chase.
2006 / 9 of 10: In the final year of the 10-driver Chase, reigning champion Tony Stewart would suffer the biggest fall in the Chase era. In second place in points after 11 races, Stewart would be the only driver in the top 10 at the all-star break to fail to make the playoffs. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin, would rise from 13th to reach the postseason. A Pocono summer sweep earned Hamlin his first Chase berth in his rookie season.
2007 / 11 of 12: In the first year that a dozen drivers would make the Chase, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was 12th after 11 races and would be the only top-12 driver at the all-star break to miss the Chase as his former Chance 2 Motorsports XFINITY driver, Martin Truex Jr., would make the Chase from 18th. Two weeks after the all-star break, Truex’s first career win at his home track at Dover helped him in his quest to make the playoffs.
2008 / 11 of 12: For the second consecutive year, the top 11 drivers after 11 races would make the Chase with 12th-place David Ragan replaced by Roush Fenway Racing teammate Matt Kenseth, who was 20th at the point of the season.
2009 / 9 of 12: Nine of the top-12 drivers after 11 races would find their way into the Chase with Jeff Burton (6th), Kyle Busch (7th) and Matt Kenseth (10th) dropping out and Juan Pablo Montoya (14th), Kasey Kahne (16th) and Brian Vickers (17th) climbing into the playoffs. Kahne’s wins at Sonoma in June and Atlanta at August and Vickers’ victory at Michigan in August helped the secure spots in the playoffs.
2010 / 10 of 12: The all-star break came after 12 races, and 10 of the top 12 drivers at the break would make the Chase, including the entire top 10. Mark Martin (11th) and Martin Truex Jr. (12th) relinquished their spots in the top dozen to Tony Stewart (14th) and Clint Bowyer (15th). Stewart’s Atlanta win the week before the Chase cutoff was part of his rally to make the playoffs.
2011 / 9 of 12: Three of the 12 drivers in the top 12 after 11 races would not make the Chase as Clint Bowyer (8th), Mark Martin (11th) and Greg Biffle (12th) would be replaced by Denny Hamlin (13th), Jeff Gordon (14th) and Brad Keselowski (24th). Hamlin (Michigan, June), Gordon (Pocono, June and Atlanta) and Keselowski (Kansas, June; Pocono, August; Bristol, August) won their way into the Chase.
2012 / 10 of 12: After 11 races, 10 drivers in the top 12 would make the Chase. Kyle Busch (9th) and Carl Edwards (10th) did not advance after the cut-off race at Richmond, and Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kasey Kahne (16th) and Jeff Gordon (24th) earned spots in the playoffs. Kahne had two wins (Charlotte, May and Loudon, July) and Gordon had a win (Pocono, August) after the all-star break and before the start of the Chase.
2013 / 10 of 13: Among the top-13 drivers at the all-star break after 11 races, three would not be Chase drivers as Brad Keselowski (7th), Aric Almirola (9th) and Paul Menard (11th) dropped out while Ryan Newman (17th), Kurt Busch (18th) and Joey Logano (19th) earned postseason berths. Newman’s Indianapolis win and Logano’s August Michigan victory keyed Chase comebacks for them.
2014 / 13 of 16: The Chase field expanded to 16 with a win-and-you’re-in format. After 11 races, 13 drivers that made the Chase were in the top 16. Brian Vickers (10th), Kyle Larson (13th) and Austin Dillon (14th) dropped out while AJ Allmendinger (17th) and Aric Almirola (21st) would win their way in at Watkins Glen and Daytona respectively. Kurt Busch had won at Martinsville but was clinging to a spot in the top 30 in 28th, the lowest points position for a driver at the all-star break who eventually made the playoffs.
Over the first 11 years of the playoffs, 80.9 percent of drivers who would go on to make the Chase were in playoff positions. In those 11 years, drivers who were out of the Chase at the all-star break and would make their way into it by the cutoff won 24 of 164 races (14.6 percent), and those drivers would win races in all but one of those years to propel them into the playoffs. No matter the format, the Chase has reinforced the importance of winning and rising to the occasion.
At this year’s all-star break, only half of the Chase field is set with eight drivers winning the first 11 races. Drivers have 15 races to get wins and make the top 30 in the driver points standings.