Odds are good for overachieving JGR driver to make NASCAR’s playoffs
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We’ve known for years that Kyle Busch is an overachiever.
His 141 wins in NASCAR’s three national series is most among active drivers and he accumulated them before even celebrating his 30th birthday earlier this month.
Busch has certainly surpassed mortal expectations off the track as well, returning behind the wheel of the No. 18 M&M’s Red Nose Day Toyota for Saturday’s NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race (9 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1, MRN, SiriusXM) only three months after severely breaking his right leg and left foot in the Feb. 21 season-opening XFINITY Series race at Daytona International Speedway.
But his greatest feat is yet to be written.
Despite his missing the first 11 races of the year, I believe Busch is going to qualify for the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup. There are not many drivers with whom you could walk that far out on a limb. Busch is one.
There has been much debate over NASCAR’s decision to grant him a medical waiver, which allows him try to earn a berth in the 16-driver playoff. But NASCAR has nothing to lose and everything to gain by the decision. Same with the fans.
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The waiver doesn’t provide Busch with anything more than an opportunity, and why would you begrudge him that?
He still must win a race and collect enough points to be ranked 30th or higher in the driver standings.
If Busch can meet the qualification guidelines in 15 races that everyone else had 26 to cover, then more power to him.
Just thinking about the run he’d need to put together puts the feat in the amazing category and reminds you of Tony Stewart‘s last fantastic championship run in 2011 when he won five of the 10 Chase races or reigning champ Kevin Harvick‘s current Cup output of eight first or second place finishes in 11 races this season.
These examples prove phenomenal is possible.
Yes, the odds are stacked against Busch. He’s essentially working with a 179-point deficit (Stewart is currently 30th with 179 points) and still recovering from a painful injury that will be intensely tested every minute and every lap he’s in the car. And, as Busch noted this week in announcing his return, these cars sport a new aero package that he has yet to race.
But, his older brother Kurt missed the first three races and hasn’t wasted much time figuring out the new car. He’s got a victory already and is 14th in points. And equally as telling, the drivers on the other end of the spectrum — the people Busch will need to overtake in points — have had all year to get accustomed to the car and still have not gotten a grip.
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The upcoming schedule is also Busch friendly.
He has wins on 10 of the 13 tracks that make up the remaining 15 regular season races to set the Chase field, including both road courses, Sonoma Raceway (one) and Watkins Glen International (two). The vast majority of his success — 19 of Busch’s 29 career Sprint Cup wins — have come on the series’ remaining regular season venues.
And he has four wins at Richmond International Raceway, site of the regular season finale, which quite possibly will be a make-or-break race for Busch in the final push for a Chase position.
It’s safe to say that in his career Busch has sometimes demonstrated a rebellious determination. That singular passionate commitment to winning — along with a whole lot of natural talent — have already made Busch an exceptional race car driver.
The fact that the odds are so stacked against him probably only makes him more determined.
It’s easy to temper expectations and dismiss Busch’s chances of overcoming all the hurdles between recovery and a championship berth.
But “easy” was never Busch’s path before his accident and difficulty doesn’t faze him.
Whether you’re a fan of Busch or not, watching him attempt what would be the greatest comeback in modern NASCAR history stands to be poignant, entertaining, compelling and inspiring.
And most definitely, exciting.