Four drivers most likely to advance

Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson were the two drivers we picked who didn’t make it, while Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman were the two who bucked our statistical trends. While we batted over .500, we still hope to do better this time. What the numbers couldn’t account for were the accidents that the Nos. 48 and 88 teams encountered during the Contender Round.

But since the method is fun to use as a barometer, we’ll dust ourselves off and try it again. To review, we’re using three categories to evaluate each driver’s ability to move to the next round: average finish for the season, average finish in the last five races and career average finish at the Eliminator Round tracks.

The hope is that with stats that reflect the past and present we’ll be able to tell the future, giving each driver a final point total based on where they rank in each category. For example, if a driver has the best average finish for the season, he’d get eight points for that category, but if he has the worst, he’d get one point and so on.

Let’s get the party started by looking at average finish for this season:

Average Finish for the 2014 Season

Inside the Numbers: The top three drivers in this category remain unchanged from the last time. And based on these numbers a strong argument can be made for Jeff Gordon, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski having the strongest cars all season.

Where it gets interesting is that Ryan Newman has leap-frogged Kevin Harvick since our last report. The Richard Childress Racing driver is quietly having a strong season, and these numbers force us to take notice. Now that Newman has safely avoided a penalty for his car coming in too low at Talladega, he could be a legitimate threat if he continues to stay hot down the stretch.

Average Finish for the Last Five Races

Inside the Numbers: Based on what we just said about Newman, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he has the third-best average finish over the past five races. But limiting our sample to the last four races makes Newman’s numbers look even better. Because when you toss out his 18th-place finish at Loudon, he has an average finish of 6.5 since Dover.

Logano and Harvick remain strong in this category, and Kenseth is showing signs that he might be ready for a late-season surge. The driver of the No. 20 for Joe Gibbs Racing improved from 15 to 12 in average finish, indicating he is ready to make a move.

Meanwhile, Gordon and Keselowski, who both were averaging top-10 finishes coming into the Contender Round, have dropped toward the bottom of the list this time. Can the former champions rebound in time? We shall see in our study.

Average Finish for the Eliminator Round Tracks

Inside the Numbers: Based on his history, Gordon has a great chance to rebound as he searches for his fifth championship. Only Hamlin has a better history at the tracks coming up in the Eliminator Round. Gordon has eight wins at Martinsville, one at Fort Worth and two at Phoenix. Hamlin’s numbers at those tracks are four, two and one, respectively. It will be a shock if one of them doesn’t find Victory Lane.

It’s interesting that the Team Penske drivers are both toward the bottom of this list. Whether it helps to have a teammate in the Chase or not, both drivers will have to overcome their history in order to advance. Keselowski has never won at any of the three tracks and has a combined 12 top-10s in 31 races. Logano has one win (this year at Texas) and 12 top-10s in 34 races.

The Final Outcome

So there we have it. The four drivers advancing to the Championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be Gordon, Logano, Harvick and Kenseth. Keselowski and Newman just miss the cut, while Edwards and Hamlin fall back in the pack. It will be interesting to see how it all really shakes out in the next three weeks.

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