Roundtable: Is Penske the team to beat?

1. It may sound like a no-brainer, but having won the first two races, is Team Penske the organization to beat in this year’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup?

Zack Albert: You’ve come to the right place for no-brainers, but early indications say yes. I still think the Hendrick Motorsports crowd will have a strong say in who is crowned before it’s all said and done.

Alan Cavanna: In every Chase year before this year, the answer would be an easy “yes.” And while I do think Penske is the best team, it doesn’t really matter at the moment. The two Penske wins mean nothing after the Dover race. In year’s past, those wins would carry an advantage to Homestead. Now they don’t.

Kenny Bruce: I agree with your line of thinking there, Alan. (Scary, huh?) Unless someone won a dozen races this season, I’d have a hard time considering anyone a favorite. The new format will basically put everyone back on equal ground after each round. So a driver winning twice in one round, or sweeping all three races in a round, really doesn’t get the benefit the way he or she would have in the past.

Albert: I think a lot of it depends on whether you believe in the abstract concept of momentum, which the Penske bunch definitely has right now. I think momentum matters – at least until you get to the burbling cauldron of Talladega.

Cavanna: Would I love to be a Penske car right now? Absolutely. But if I’m Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, or Jimmie Johnson, I’m nowhere near as worried as I would’ve been last year.

Bruce: That being said, it’s pretty clear that Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are hitting their stride at the right time. And, as Zack mentioned, if those (Penske) guys are putting the beatdown on you every weekend, that’s got to be kind of disheartening.

Albert: Would the Captain let you drive, Alan? Are you Penske material based on your years-ago quarter-midget driving experience?

Cavanna: I was a huge Rusty Wallace fan growing up. That has to get my foot in the door.

2. Staying in Chase mode for No. 2 here, guys. While there’s plenty of opportunity for movement with one race remaining in the Challenger Round, who are the surprises, as far as likely to advance and likely to be eliminated?

Cavanna: I’m going out on a limb and saying one JGR driving is sent packing, and AJ Allmendinger has the ride of this life in Dover and makes it to the next round.

Albert: I like the Allmendinger pick, but I don’t have quite as much trust in it. I think Kurt Busch is primed to jump up from his current rank of 15th at Dover and transfer on – a mild surprise given how erratic that team has been this year.

Cavanna: Dinger has three career top-10s at Dover, and the luxury of being “in” the next round at the moment. It’s his to lose. Who doesn’t love an underdog story?

Bruce: I’ll be surprised if Denny Hamlin gets bumped. While not as consistent as he needs to be, Hamlin’s been in the Chase before so his team knew what to expect coming in. Of course, a faulty fuel probe isn’t exactly something a team can prepare for on race day. But if he advances, somebody has to drop. And I don’t have a clue who that might be. Performance-wise, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of difference between all those teams hanging around eighth through 12th in points.

Albert: I cringe to say it but I think that someone moving up may come at the cost of Kasey Kahne. The combination of gobs of bad luck and a baffling performance deficit give me pause at penciling him in for the Contender Round.

Bruce: Allmendinger has definitely gotten it done in the first two races. Maybe not the greatest of runs, but the JTG team has been able to avoid the problems that have others sweating bullets heading into Dover.

Cavanna: You make a good point, Kenny. No matter what the final scenario, a good driver is going to be out of contention. One wreck or incident, and two former champs (Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth) could not make the top-12. It’s hard to fathom but clearly possible in the new format.

Bruce: The best thing about all of this? Under the right circumstances (as in picking up a win), any of these teams outside the top 12 could still advance.

3. As interesting as this Chase has been so far, let’s jump ahead a little. NASCAR announced its 2015 rules package this week. What is likely to have a bigger impact on the upcoming year, the mechanical changes (horsepower reduction, smaller spoiler, etc.) or the ban on testing?

Cavanna: Certainly the mechanical changes. NASCAR put a lot of research in the changes it announced and it all has to do with on-track product. When that changes, the ripple effect will be huge. Better racing will benefit everyone, and that means a HUGE impact.

Bruce: Alan, thinking big picture. I like that.

Albert: I vote mechanical changes as well since that balance of grip and aero is such a moving target. Still think the testing ban will be a big deal, but teams are sure to re-allocate that money in their budget for simulation-style tests (wind tunnel, shaker rigs) elsewhere.

Cavanna: You hit the nail on the head Zack. The money in the sport isn’t going anywhere; teams will find a way to spend it. Just elsewhere.

Bruce: Think you’re right, Zack. The testing ban may save smaller teams money, but bigger teams will just spend it in R&D, computer simulation, etc. And given that a lot of testing was done on tracks where NASCAR doesn’t race, with tires that won’t be similar to those used in the event, I don’t know that they were making big gains. More like confirmation of things they’d seen in simulation, maybe? But cutting horsepower and taking away downforce should put the drivers back in control of their destiny. If (slightly) slower means Goodyear can soften tires, which would wear more, then that adds another element drivers don’t currently face. It could/should get interesting.

Cavanna: And when I think “impact”, I think it has to do what the fans can see. Fans can’t see testing. Combine that with the potential for better racing, and I think the mechanical changes win this debate.

Bruce: As long as they don’t show up next year with a wing on the car again, I think everyone will be pleased with the changes.

Cavanna: “The car that shall not be talked about!”

Albert: Well, I’d love it if they brought back the Superbirds from 1970, but I don’t know that the rules changes are going to be that radical.

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