Playoff Watch: Post-Watkins Glen

By Brad Norman | Published: August 6, 2017 18

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Following Martin Truex Jr.'s Watkins Glen win, 22 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular-season races are in the books. That leaves just four races until the postseason field is set. This is what the playoffs would look like if the postseason started today.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale.

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Missing the cut

With 13 drivers earning wins that count for playoff eligibility, there are a handful of big names currently out of the postseason picture. Chief among them are Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano. Remember, Logano's Richmond win was ruled encumbered, so it doesn't count toward playoff eligibility. Bowyer finishes fifth at Watkins Glen but actually lost ground to Matt Kenseth, who finished second.

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16. Jamie McMurray, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: McMurray is last in the field due to no stage wins, and therefore no bonus playoff points. His three extra points (2,003) come from being eighth in the regular-season standings.

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15. Matt Kenseth, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Kenseth finished second at The Glen, and he's a handful of points behind both Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray in the regular-season standings. Passing them would boost his playoff standing.

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14. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Charlotte)
Stage wins: 0
Note: The more first-time winners we get in 2017, the more it hurts Austin Dillon. Not having one at The Glen is a big win for the No. 3 team.

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13. Kasey Kahne, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Indianapolis)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Kahne likely can't catch Ryan Newman in the regular-season standings, so the No. 13 spot is his most likely playoff seed.

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12. Ryan Newman, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Newman could boost his total here by gambling on a stage win or two.

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11. Kurt Busch, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Busch is still riding the Daytona 500 win, but his sixth-place effort at Watkins Glen was his best finish in two months.

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10. Chase Elliott, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Elliott ranks highest among the three non-winners in the playoffs, but the line is razor thin. One poor showing combined with a first-time winner would knock him from the No. 10 seed to out of the postseason.

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9. Ryan Blaney, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Three stage wins give Blaney a leg -- and three points -- up on his fellow one-win competitors.

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8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., 2,010 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Talladega, Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Stenhouse Jr. has a couple of tracks ahead where win No. 3 could loom -- in particular, he's good at Bristol.

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7. Denny Hamlin, 2,013 points

Qualified via: 1 win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is typically a title contender in this format because of how well he performs at the 10 tracks that comprise the playoffs.

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6. Kevin Harvick, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Harvick slipped in the standings after his finish at Watkins Glen, but consider him likely to jump back into the top five in the playoff field over the next month.

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5. Jimmie Johnson, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Texas, Bristol, Dover)
Stage wins: 1
Note: Johnson finished 29th at Watkins Glen, and he's cooled off considerably since his three-win start to the season.

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4. Brad Keselowski, 2,019 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Michigan looms large for Keselowski as Team Penske looks to get back on track.

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3. Kyle Larson, 2,021 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Auto Club, Michigan)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Larson's performance has cooled lately, and he dropped from second to third in the regular-season standings and playoff field.

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2. Kyle Busch, 2,024 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 9
Note: In two weeks, Busch has gone from a non-playoff lock to the No. 2 seed. He's on an incredible run.

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1. Martin Truex Jr., 2,049 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Las Vegas, Kansas, Kentucky, Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 14
Note: A fourth win of 2017 had even Truex Jr. conceding he felt like a 'lock' to make it to the championship race.