Playoff Bubble Watch, Michigan

By | Published: August 10, 2017 10

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Michigan's wide corners and blazing speeds set the scene for the 23rd (of 26) Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular-season race. We present a detailed look how drivers on the playoff bubble perform at the 2-mile oval; drivers are ordered by their position on the bubble.

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Chase Elliott

Points above cutoff: +39
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 8.3 (Rank: 1 of 9)
Average finish: 2.0 (Rank: 1 of 9)
Notable: Elliott has finished runner-up at Michigan in all three of his Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series starts here.

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Jamie McMurray

Points above cutoff: +34
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 22.2 (Rank: 9 of 9)
Average finish: 17.4 (Rank: 6 of 9)
Notable: Is there cause for concern with McMurray's numbers? Hardly. Chip Ganassi Racing cars are fast at Michigan, and McMurray's previous three races here have all yielded top-10 results.

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Matt Kenseth

Points above cutoff: +28
Michigan wins: 3 (2002, 2006, 2015)
Average start: 16.9 (Rank: 5 of 9)
Average finish: 10.4 (Rank: 2 of 9)
Notable: A Toyota has only won once at Michigan since 2012, but that victory came from Kenseth in 2015.

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Clint Bowyer

Points below cutoff: -28
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 19.0 (Rank: 6 of 9)
Average finish: 17.5 (Rank: 7 of 9)
Notable: It's a big one for Bowyer this weekend. He's finished outside the top 20 in his past four Michigan starts (although he started third in June). He can't afford another finish like that.

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Joey Logano

Points below cutoff: -95
Michigan wins: 2 (2013, 2016)
Average start: 11.6 (Rank: 2 of 9)
Average finish: 12.1 (Rank: 3 of 9)
Notable: Logano has logged nine consecutive top-10s at Michigan, a stretch in which he also has 3 pole awards. It's practically win-or-bust for the No. 22 team, though.

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Daniel Suarez

Points below cutoff: -129
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 20.0 (Rank: 8 of 9)
Average finish: 24.0 (Rank: 9 of 9)
Notable: Ignore the numbers here. Suarez won his first national series race at Michigan in an XFINITY Series car and is comfortable on sweeping, fast ovals.

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Erik Jones

Points below cutoff: -160
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 14.0 (Rank: 3 of 9)
Average finish: 13.0 (Rank: 4 of 9)
Notable: Jones is a Michigan native, so this is a homecoming of sorts for him.

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Trevor Bayne

Points below cutoff: -229
Michigan wins: 0
Average start: 19.5 (Rank: 7 of 9)
Average finish: 22.3 (Rank: 8 of 9)
Notable: Bayne's best bet shot at winning this weekend is some sort of strategic gamble.

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Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Points below cutoff: -258
Michigan wins: 2 (2008, 2012)
Average start: 14.8 (Rank: 4 of 9)
Average finish: 15.6 (Rank: 5 of 9)
Notable: Michigan just has an It Factor for Dale Jr. He twice has stopped long losing skids in the Irish Hills. This is his best shot to win before the playoffs start.