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Playoff Bubble Watch: Round of 16
By Zack Albert, NASCAR.com | Published: September 27, 2017 13
Chris Trotman | Getty Images
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Chris Trotman | Getty Images
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs nears its first elimination phase this weekend. Sunday at Dover International Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBCSN, MRN, SiriusXM), the field will be whittled from 16 to 12 drivers in the 400-mile first-round finale.
Only four drivers have officially clinched spots in the Round of 12 -- Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch by winning the last two weeks, and Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski on the basis of their cushion in the points standings. For the remaining dozen drivers, the 'Monster Mile' may hold the key to their postseason fate. Here's a look at all 12 heading into Sunday's showdown at Dover.
Only four drivers have officially clinched spots in the Round of 12 -- Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch by winning the last two weeks, and Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski on the basis of their cushion in the points standings. For the remaining dozen drivers, the 'Monster Mile' may hold the key to their postseason fate. Here's a look at all 12 heading into Sunday's showdown at Dover.
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Jeff Zelevansky | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin
Postseason standings: 5th
Points above cut-off line: +44
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 9
Career average finish at Dover: 17.7
Note: Hamlin has three career poles at the 1-mile concrete track, but has yet to visit Victory Lane. Barring a catastrophe that erases his large points edge, he should easily advance.
Postseason standings: 5th
Points above cut-off line: +44
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 9
Career average finish at Dover: 17.7
Note: Hamlin has three career poles at the 1-mile concrete track, but has yet to visit Victory Lane. Barring a catastrophe that erases his large points edge, he should easily advance.
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Matt Kenseth
Postseason standings: 6th
Points above cut-off line: +43
Wins at Dover: 3
Top-fives at Dover: 17
Top-10s at Dover: 24
Career average finish at Dover: 12.8
Note: Kenseth's most recent win at the 'Monster Mile' came in spring 2016. He finished an impressive sixth at Dover in his premier-series debut in 1998.
Postseason standings: 6th
Points above cut-off line: +43
Wins at Dover: 3
Top-fives at Dover: 17
Top-10s at Dover: 24
Career average finish at Dover: 12.8
Note: Kenseth's most recent win at the 'Monster Mile' came in spring 2016. He finished an impressive sixth at Dover in his premier-series debut in 1998.
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Jimmie Johnson
Postseason standings: 7th
Points above cut-off line: +32
Wins at Dover: 11
Top-fives at Dover: 16
Top-10s at Dover: 22
Career average finish at Dover: 9.3
Note: Johnson returns to Dover -- a sweet spot on the schedule for the No. 48 team -- as the mile-long track's most recent winner and the record-holder atop its all-time win list.
Postseason standings: 7th
Points above cut-off line: +32
Wins at Dover: 11
Top-fives at Dover: 16
Top-10s at Dover: 22
Career average finish at Dover: 9.3
Note: Johnson returns to Dover -- a sweet spot on the schedule for the No. 48 team -- as the mile-long track's most recent winner and the record-holder atop its all-time win list.
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Ryan Blaney
Postseason standings: 8th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: +26
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 26.0
Note: Blaney's Dover resume is a small sample size of just three Monster Energy Cup starts, but he's excelled there in other NASCAR national series.
Postseason standings: 8th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: +26
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 26.0
Note: Blaney's Dover resume is a small sample size of just three Monster Energy Cup starts, but he's excelled there in other NASCAR national series.
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Chase Elliott
Postseason standings: 8th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: +26
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 3
Career average finish at Dover: 3.7
Note: Elliott also has just three career starts at the Delaware venue, but he's logged top-five efforts in each -- a solid stat in his favor.
Postseason standings: 8th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: +26
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 3
Career average finish at Dover: 3.7
Note: Elliott also has just three career starts at the Delaware venue, but he's logged top-five efforts in each -- a solid stat in his favor.
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Kevin Harvick
Postseason standings: 10th
Points above cut-off line: +25
Wins at Dover: 1
Top-fives at Dover: 5
Top-10s at Dover: 15
Career average finish at Dover: 14.8
Note: Harvick's lone Dover win was a clutch one, helping him stay alive in the 2015 Playoffs.
Postseason standings: 10th
Points above cut-off line: +25
Wins at Dover: 1
Top-fives at Dover: 5
Top-10s at Dover: 15
Career average finish at Dover: 14.8
Note: Harvick's lone Dover win was a clutch one, helping him stay alive in the 2015 Playoffs.
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Jamie McMurray
Postseason standings: 11th
Points above cut-off line: +9
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 2
Top-10s at Dover: 8
Career average finish at Dover: 17.8
Note: In 29 Dover starts, McMurray has just one DNF -- an engine failure that ended his postseason run early last year. He'll need durability Sunday from his slightly precarious perch in the points.
Postseason standings: 11th
Points above cut-off line: +9
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 2
Top-10s at Dover: 8
Career average finish at Dover: 17.8
Note: In 29 Dover starts, McMurray has just one DNF -- an engine failure that ended his postseason run early last year. He'll need durability Sunday from his slightly precarious perch in the points.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Postseason standings: 12th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: Even
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 21.1
Note: Stenhouse led at Dover for the first time in his career last June, but absorbed a crash-related 39th place. He holds a share of the cut-off line heading to Sunday's 400-miler.
Postseason standings: 12th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: Even
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 21.1
Note: Stenhouse led at Dover for the first time in his career last June, but absorbed a crash-related 39th place. He holds a share of the cut-off line heading to Sunday's 400-miler.
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Tim Bradbury | Getty Images
Austin Dillon
Postseason standings: 12th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: Even
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 22.6
Note: There's plenty on the line for Dillon's 150th premier-series start. He'll need to outperform his history -- with finishes of 20th or worse in three-quarters of his Dover starts -- to stay afloat.
Postseason standings: 12th (tie)
Points above cut-off line: Even
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 0
Top-10s at Dover: 1
Career average finish at Dover: 22.6
Note: There's plenty on the line for Dillon's 150th premier-series start. He'll need to outperform his history -- with finishes of 20th or worse in three-quarters of his Dover starts -- to stay afloat.
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Ryan Newman
Postseason standings: 14th
Points below cut-off line: -1
Wins at Dover: 3
Top-fives at Dover: 7
Top-10s at Dover: 14
Career average finish at Dover: 13.6
Note: Newman placed fourth on Dover's concrete in June, offering some optimism for Sunday. His winning history at the 'Monster Mile' dates back to 2003-04, when he won three of four races in a two-season span.
Postseason standings: 14th
Points below cut-off line: -1
Wins at Dover: 3
Top-fives at Dover: 7
Top-10s at Dover: 14
Career average finish at Dover: 13.6
Note: Newman placed fourth on Dover's concrete in June, offering some optimism for Sunday. His winning history at the 'Monster Mile' dates back to 2003-04, when he won three of four races in a two-season span.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kurt Busch
Postseason standings: 15th
Points below cut-off line: -17
Wins at Dover: 1
Top-fives at Dover: 7
Top-10s at Dover: 9
Career average finish at Dover: 18.6
Note: The Daytona 500 winner has ground to make up at Dover. Since his only win there (2011), Busch has just one top-10 outing in the last 11 Dover races.
Postseason standings: 15th
Points below cut-off line: -17
Wins at Dover: 1
Top-fives at Dover: 7
Top-10s at Dover: 9
Career average finish at Dover: 18.6
Note: The Daytona 500 winner has ground to make up at Dover. Since his only win there (2011), Busch has just one top-10 outing in the last 11 Dover races.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kasey Kahne
Postseason standings: 16th
Points below cut-off line: -21
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 8
Career average finish at Dover: 18.6
Note: Kahne's No. 5 team changed crew chiefs after the Playoffs opener, but the infusion may not be enough. Kahne will need a stellar Dover day, plus some misfortune for a rival or two, to advance to the Round of 12.
Postseason standings: 16th
Points below cut-off line: -21
Wins at Dover: 0
Top-fives at Dover: 3
Top-10s at Dover: 8
Career average finish at Dover: 18.6
Note: Kahne's No. 5 team changed crew chiefs after the Playoffs opener, but the infusion may not be enough. Kahne will need a stellar Dover day, plus some misfortune for a rival or two, to advance to the Round of 12.