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Fantasy Fastlane: First Data 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 24, 2017 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as three sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup for this week.
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Clint Bowyer
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 FordFantasy Live price: $23.25
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has a nice history at Martinsville. If you remove the 2015 and 2016 runs here (easy to do in revisionist history), he would be working on a streak of seven top 10s. If you are looking to go against the grain, this is a nice contrarian play that could pay off big.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $23.50
Fastlane forecast: Johnson is a nine-time winner at Martinsville and also the defending winner of this race. He holds the best average finish (7.1), most laps led (2,838) and top driver rating (116.9) among active drivers here. The seven-time champ is a strong play to roster in the Round of 8.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordFantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the most recent winner at Martinsville and has four top-five finishes is his last five starts there. Among playoff drivers, he holds the third-best average finish (12.9) at 'The Paperclip.' His success here has flown under the radar compared to others.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has seen a steady improvement over his four Martinsville starts – including notching a playoff point and 20 laps led in the spring. With four top-four finishes in six playoff races, no driver (not named Truex or Busch) has surged forward more this postseason.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaFantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has yet to win at Martinsville, but has notched six top 10s and led 568 laps in nine starts with JGR. Prior to that, he had just eight top 10s and 73 laps led in 26 starts with Roush. The 2003 champ may be out of the playoffs, but is still a solid fantasy play here.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaFantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is a five-time winner at Martinsville and has 17 top 10s in 23 starts here. His 1,387 laps led, 10.1 average finish and 106.6 driver rating are second-best to Johnson among active drivers. With 11 top-six finishes in his last 15 races this season, he is on an upswing.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 FordFantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Here's a surprising stat: Harvick has just three top fives in 32 starts at Martinsville. Those came in three straight races from 2010 to 2011 and include one win. The price tag is high for a driver with four finishes outside the top 15 in his last six Martinsville starts.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaFantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Busch has four top-five finishes including a win in his last four starts here. Most recently, he led 274 laps en route to a runner-up finish in the spring. The 2015 champion is strong at all three Round of 8 tracks and is well worth owning from here on out.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaFantasy Live price: $28.25
Fastlane forecast: This is Truex's fourth-worst track with a 20.4 average finish. However, recent results have been far kinder. He has three top-seven finishes in his last five starts here and led 147 laps from the pole last October. He's been THE car all year and it’s hard to turn back now.
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SLEEPER PICK: Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordFantasy Live price: $22.75
Fastlane forecast: In the last seven Martinsville races, Logano has started on the pole three times. In that same stretch, he has four top-five finishes and 457 laps led. Despite the struggles in '17, expect Logano to be in the mix here.
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $21.50
Fastlane forecast: Dillon has two top-five finishes in his last three Martinsville starts. He tends to not qualifying well here, leading to big place differential gains with a +10.6 average place difference in seven starts.
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SLEEPER PICK: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $13.50
Fastlane forecast: Earnhardt has one win at Martinsville but this pick has more to do with recent results. Junior has notched three seventh-place finishes in his last four starts this year – at a wide variety of track types.
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VALUE PICK: AJ Allmendinger
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $10.00
Fastlane forecast: Martinsville is a track that Allmendinger has found success at in his career but especially during his JTG tenure. He has six top-11 finishes in seven starts in the No. 47 car.
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VALUE PICK: Cole Whitt
TriStar Motorsports, No. 72 ChevroletFantasy Live price: $5.00
Fastlane forecast: Whitt has long been a Fastlane favorite. In eight starts at Martinsville, he holds a +8 average place differential with four finishes inside the top 22 in his last five starts there.