2024 NASCAR.com preseason staff predictions

With the Busch Light Clash in the rearview mirror and arrivals at Daytona just days away, it's time for preseason predictions for the 2024 NASCAR campaign. Ballots were cast by 14 NASCAR.com editorial staff members and contributors in nine key categories, producing an unscientific but potentially telling preview of how the new season might unfold.

RELATED: 2024 Cup Series Championship odds

Best race

Darlington, Atlanta in September (tie)

The lowdown: With no clear-cut favorite in the balloting, the nod went to the new-look lineup for the Cup Series' regular-season finale and playoffs starting point. The Southern 500 at Darlington remains a crown-jewel on the 2024 schedule, but with a new perspective as the field-setter for 16-driver postseason grid. The other top vote-getter is scheduled just one week later, with Atlanta's superspeedway-style layout opening the playoffs with a dose of unpredictability.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Atlanta-2, Darlington-2 (3 votes each); Chicago (2); Daytona-1, Kansas-1, Kansas-2, Charlotte-1, Martinsville-2, Indianapolis (1).

Best candidate for first Cup Series win

Ty Gibbs

The lowdown: Perhaps not surprisingly, last season's Sunoco Rookie of the Year was a runaway choice to break into the Cup Series win column. The 21-year-old Gibbs notched four top-five finishes last year and flirted with a postseason bid. More strides are forecast in Year 2.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Ty Gibbs (9); Josh Berry, John Hunter Nemechek (2); Carson Hocevar (1).

Most improved/sleeper pick

Erik Jones

The lowdown: A 27th-place result in the final 2023 Cup Series standings marked a nine-position drop from the previous year for Jones, who managed just one top-five finish last year. With his Legacy Motor Club team newly aligned with Toyota for a fresh start, more solid footing and even overachieving are expected as Jones enters his eighth big-league season.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Erik Jones (4); John Hunter Nemechek (3); Corey LaJoie (2); Ty Gibbs, Austin Cindric, Justin Haley, Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland (1).

Craftsman Truck Series champion

Corey Heim

The lowdown: Heim returns to the same No. 11 Tricon Garage ride that he took to a convincing Championship 4 appearance last year. The 21-year-old driver assembled a strikingly consistent season in 2023, topping the circuit in top fives, top 10s, laps led and average finish. Little wonder that he's a preseason favorite.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Corey Heim (7); Christian Eckes (5); Ben Rhodes, Nick Sanchez (1).

Xfinity Series champion

Cole Custer

The lowdown: A tight vote offers a slight edge to Custer, who emerged with his first Xfinity Series crown last year. Going back-to-back will be a tall task, with six other drivers receiving votes in the competitive category.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Cole Custer (4); AJ Allmendinger (3); Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill (2); Sheldon Creed, Riley Herbst, Chandler Smith (1).

Cup Series Sunoco Rookie of the Year

Josh Berry

The lowdown: The veteran savvy of the 33-year-old Berry won the approval of voters as he slots into the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford, replacing future Hall of Famer Kevin Harvick. All three rookie candidates showed glimpses of promise in partial Cup Series slates last year, which is reflected in all three also received multiple votes in the poll.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Josh Berry (9); Carson Hocevar (3); Zane Smith (2).

Daytona 500 winner

Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski (tie)

The lowdown: Remarkably, all 14 votes went to drivers who have not yet tasted victory in NASCAR's most prestigious race. The picks produced a deadlock of co-favorites, with recent strong showings by Blaney and Keselowski influencing the predictions for the "Great American Race."

Vote totals, honorable mentions: Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski (4); Kyle Busch (3); Chase Elliott (2); Martin Truex Jr. (1).

Cup Series Championship 4

William Byron, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin

The lowdown: Forecasting the Championship 4 field is no easy assignment given the treacherous nature of the Cup Series Playoffs, but a quartet of strong candidates rose to the top of the list. Among them are two drivers (Byron, Larson) who reached the final four in 2023, and two more drivers (Hamlin, Logano) who aim to get back into the title-race mix this season.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: William Byron, Joey Logano (10); Kyle Larson (9); Denny Hamlin (8); Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick (4); Ryan Blaney (3); Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. (2).

Cup Series champion

William Byron

The lowdown: Byron enters the 2024 season fresh off a breakout six-win campaign, hungry for more after his first Championship 4 appearance. Should the prediction come to fruition, it would mark the first Cup Series title for the Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 team since Jeff Gordon hoisted his fourth and final crown in 2001.

Vote totals, honorable mentions: William Byron (4); Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson (3); Joey Logano (1).