Fantasy Live: By the numbers through 15 races

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is off for Father's Day weekend meaning Fantasy Live players can rest up and reassess their standings situation for the home stretch of the final 11 races of the 2018 regular season. Before the action resumes in wine country at the first road course of the season, Sonoma Raceway, let’s take a deep dive into some of the numbers from the first 15 races of the season.

WINNER WINNER: With powerhouse organizations Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske in the fold, Ford has been the winning manufacturer pick of choice for Fantasy Live players as a bonus pick. The Blue Oval has won eight of the season’s first 15 races and has been chosen 45.76 percent of the time. Meanwhile, Chevrolet and Toyota are neck and neck for second at 27.12 percent and 27.11 percent, respectively. Given the Bowtie Brand’s early struggles with just one win compared to Toyota’s six victories, it’s a bit surprising to see those two so close to each other as these picks.

AGGRESSIVE OUTPUT: Worried you may not be able to make ground in your league? Perhaps you are in league where owners have already burned through their maximum 10 uses of Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. That is the case for 9,950 players on Busch and another 8,928 with Harvick. While both have combined for nine wins in the first 15 races, the two past champions have plenty of tracks coming up where they are strong.

PERFECT MARKS: In the Fantasy Live scoring system, 60 is the maximum point total you can get from a driver (40 points for the win, 10 points for Stage 1 and 2 wins); just like drivers can earn for every race except for the Coca-Cola 600. This season, that has occurred four times; Kevin Harvick at Las Vegas and Dover, Martin Truex Jr. at Auto Club and Kyle Busch at Charlotte.

USE ME: Only four times — Kevin Harvick at Atlanta, ISM and Kansas and Kyle Busch at Bristol — has the most owned driver won the race. That’s not to say the most owned hasn’t put up a good to great points day, but just one of those interesting statistical oddities to note. A look at the most uses by race; Daytona: Chase Elliott (47.3%), Atlanta: Kevin Harvick (61.3%), Las Vegas: Martin Truex Jr. (66.1%), ISM: Kevin Harvick (67.3%), Auto Club: Kyle Larson (66.4%), Martinsville: Brad Keselowski (65.6%), Texas: Kevin Harvick (61.2%), Bristol: Kyle Busch (70.6%), Richmond: Joey Logano (61.7%), Talladega: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (48.3%), Dover: Chase Elliott (53.2%), Kansas: Kevin Harvick (64.2%), Charlotte: Denny Hamlin (49.3%), Pocono: Ryan Blaney (70.3%) and Michigan: Brad Keselowski (58.4%)

SLEEPER APPEAL: Among race winners in 2018, Daytona 500 winner Austin Dillon was owned by the least amount of players (8.4%). While that is the best success story of a driver providing a big return that many of your competitors likely did not get, there are a few other instances to call out. In that same race, Michael McDowell earned the fifth-most fantasy points and was owned by just 1.5 percent of players. Jamie McMurray earned the seventh-most fantasy points with a third-place finish at Texas in April and was rostered by just 2.4 percent of players. More recently, Paul Menard earned the sixth-most fantasy points at Michigan and was on just 6.8 percent of rosters.

STEADY GROWTH: Aric Almirola was a bit of an unknown coming into the 2018 season. In 10 seasons, he had one victory and his best finish in the standings came in 2014 when he placed 16th. The 2018 campaign has been a breakout year for the Florida native with his new team at Stewart-Haas Racing. He has been one of the most consistent drivers all season as he sits 11th in the standings and has the seventh-best average finish so far (12.0). As the season has progressed, so has fantasy owners' trust in him. Through the first five races, he was owned by less than 10 percent of players. Week by week that has steadily increased, peaking last month at Kansas (44.5 percent) thanks to his season-best starting spot of fourth. The point here is it takes time for owners to trust, but Almirola is rewarding those who believed.

POLE PICKS: To the surprise of no one, the most picked drivers for the Busch Pole in Fantasy Live (worth five bonus points) have been Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson. That foursome accounts for nine poles on the season. It’s worth noting is that two drivers with two poles on the year -- Ryan Blaney and Kurt Busch – have not been as popular of picks for the pole bonus. That is certainly something to keep in mind as we get deeper into the year. Busch has scored poles at the high-speed venues of Texas and Michigan while Blaney nabbed poles at Las Vegas and Pocono.

PICK OUT A WINNER BOBBY: Picking the race winner in Fantasy Live is a whopping 30 bonus points – half of the maximum total a driver can earn you on their own. As uses dwindle, these picks become more and more important. For me, it’s a way to save a use or protect against someone that you think could be pretty strong while still getting points out of them. Much like with the pole picks, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have been the most selected. It’s reasonable to expect that will only continue as we get deeper into the year and owners run out of uses but still look for a way to get points out of the trio.

SETTING THE STAGE: Stage-winning bonus picks are worth 10 points for each stage – just as the drivers receive when they win a stage. Kevin Harvick has the most stage wins on the year (8) and has been picked the most to win Stage 1 and 2. Much like the race winner picks, this is a good way to try and save a use as we go deeper in the season. Something else to keep in mind: Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney each have four stage wins, just one behind Kyle Busch – who has been picked to win stages nearly double the amount of those two combined. Another interesting trend is that players feel more confident with Kyle Larson (fourth-most picks for Stage 1, fifth-most for Stage 2) and Blaney (sixth-most picks for Stage 1, ninth-most for Stage 2) in Stage 1 than in Stage 2. Conversely, Keselowski sees a spike in picks for Stage 2 jumping from the fifth-most picked for Stage 1 to fourth for Stage 2.

GOING TO THE GARAGE: The garage pick has been a nice added featured to the Fantasy Live game as it gives owners the chance to hide a mistake or a poor performer for the weekend. Sometimes, it forces tough choices as well. Based on the numbers, it seems like most owners are putting a strong driver in the garage in the hopes that they may not have to use them, but giving themselves the option of having that driver at their disposal. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have been the most-used garage drivers so far, but its interesting to note Joey Logano is the third-most-used garage driver. The Team Penske driver has rebounded in a big way in 2018 – third in points – after a 2017 that saw him miss the NASCAR Playoffs. Jimmie Johnson has also been a popular garage pick as he has been used the seventh-most times out of the garage. That includes the most used garage driver at three tracks he’s had great success: Martinsville, Texas and Dover.

AROUND THE CORNER: As we look to the latter 11 races of the regular season in Fantasy Live, it’s important for owners to account for the fact that there are several wild-card races on the schedule. The road course of Sonoma – site of next week’s race -- has had nine different winners in the past nine races. The July Daytona race has seen eight different winners in the past eight races there. The Watkins Glen road course has seen eight different winners in the past nine races there. These tracks open the door for some use saving and lineup shakeups. There’s also the possibility as NASCAR Executive Vice President and Chief Racing Development Officer Steve O’Donnell directly mentioned earlier this month on FS1 that the rules package used in May’s Monster Energy NASCAR All-Star Race could be brought out for a few races later in 2018.