Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Chicagoland

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 17 regular-season races (out of 26) following Kyle Busch's win at Chicagoland.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. Paul Menard is closing in on Stenhouse Jr. for the first spot below the cut line as well.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman's improvement has created some breathing room for the final playoff spot ... but one slip-up is all it takes in this type of format.

15. Erik Jones, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones' sixth-place finish at Chicago was his best result since April, a sure sign of his improving speed.

14. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jimmie Johnson lost ground on Aric Almirola in the regular-season standings. His playoff spot isn't secure with nine regular-season races remaining.

13. Chase Elliott, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Finishing 19th place at a track where his career average finish (in two starts) was 2.5 is a kick to the gut for Elliott and his team.

12. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: It may seem small, but Almirola's first stage win of the season is an important playoff point that separates him from four other drivers who would enter the postseason with 2,000 points.

11. Kyle Larson, 2,002 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1 (does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection)
Note: Larson gave NASCAR fans the show of the season, finishing second after a last-lap duel with Kyle Busch. A win would have jumped him to seventh in the postseason field, though.

10. Ryan Blaney, 2,005 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: A second-place qualifying effort at Chicago did not portend a similar result on race day.

9. Denny Hamlin, 2,005 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is seeded below Austin Dillon because he doesn't have a win. Therefore Dillon gets the tiebreaker as the two both would enter the playoffs with 2,005 points.

8. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Dillon's Daytona 500 win essentially clinched his spot in the postseason in February. This summer can be spent trying creative ways to improve.

7. Kurt Busch, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Busch took exception with teammate Kevin Harvick's racing at the end of Stage 2 at Chicago. It cost the driver of the No. 41 one playoff point.

6. Brad Keselowski, 2,010 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski dropped one spot in the regular-season standings (down to fifth), with Clint Bowyer now sitting 13 points behind him. Remember, the higher you finish in the regular-season standings, the higher the playoff points.

5. Joey Logano, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Perhaps no driver has been more consistent than Logano this year. He enters Daytona as one of the best plate racers in the sport.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer remains frustrated with what most drivers would consider strong showings. It's the mark of someone eyeing a deep playoff run.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,025 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: A win by Kyle Busch is a blow to Truex Jr., who remains stuck at three wins after Chicago.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,037 points

Qualified via: 5 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1)*
Stage wins: 9*
Note: For a while on Sunday, it looked like Harvick would jump Kyle Busch for the No. 1 seed. But a set of late cautions shuttered Busch to the front, and he ended up pulling further ahead. (Note: Two stage wins and one victory will not count toward Harvick's playoff points)

1. Kyle Busch, 2,045 points

Qualified via: 5 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland)
Stage wins: 5
Note: So much is on the line every lap with this playoff system. Busch moving Kyle Larson to grab the checkered was a massive victory for the No. 18, and equally as big a blow to Larson, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.