Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Michigan

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 15 regular-season races (out of 26) following Clint Bowyer's win at Michigan.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Stenhouse Jr. is just four points behind the cutoff line. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. Paul Menard is a mere four points behind the cut line as well.

16. Aric Almirola, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Almirola is one of five drivers with 2,000 points in the field, and he ranks last due to the tiebreaker (best finish). He actually sits 11th in the regular-season standings, though. With Stewart-Haas Racing as fast as ever, it wouldn't be a surprise if he wins his way in.

15. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman jumps into the field this week, nabbing the final spot. The points battle between him, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and now Paul Menard will be worth watching all summer.

14. Erik Jones, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: A marquee win at home wasn't in the cards for Jones, but he'll have more opportunities this summer -- again at Michigan, and then at Bristol. Both tracks suit him well.

13. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: After taking a nice step forward last week at Pocono, the No. 48 team took one step back at Michigan.

12. Chase Elliott, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: An early flat tire derailed Chase Elliott's bid for a top-five run -- that's the bad. The good? Chase and Co. rallied past it to finish ninth in a rain-shortened race.

11. Kyle Larson, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1 (does not count as a bonus point)
Note: Larson doesn't get the bonus point for winning a stage due to a post-race infraction. His spin at Michigan was a major bummer, considering he had won three in a row at the track.

10. Denny Hamlin, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Hamlin dropped one position in the playoff field post-Michigan. A pre-race inspection failure stung, but the No. 11 team rallied from the rear to finish 12th.

9. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: The Daytona 500 victory locked Dillon into the playoff field early.

8. Ryan Blaney, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Ryan Blaney won Stage 1 at Michigan, and climbed from 10th to ninth in the regular-season standings. Those two things give the Team Penske driver two extra playoff points for this exercise, which is why he jumps Austin Dillon this week.

7. Kurt Busch, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: A top-three finish at Michigan inches Busch closer to Martin Truex Jr. in the regular-season standings. Every position in the top 10 counts for bonus points, so it was a nice day for the No. 41 team.

6. Brad Keselowski, 2,011 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski feels close to a breakthrough in the win column. He's the highest-ranked driver in the regular-season standings (fourth) without a victory.

5. Joey Logano, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Logano slips a spot to fifth following Clint Bowyer's win.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,016 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: A gutsy call on pit road led to a rain-shortened win, and it could pay off in spades for the No. 14 team. Another win and Bowyer may enter the title discussion.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,018 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Auto Club, Pocono)
Stage wins: 3
Note: There's no way to hide it -- the No. 78 team was off at Michigan. Given his speed at 2-mile tracks in years past, it was a surprise.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,036 points

Qualified via: 5 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dover, Kansas)*
Stage wins: 8*
Note: One victory and two stage wins won't count toward bonus playoff points due to a post-race inspection failure. Harvick added another stage win to the pile at Michigan, but was a pit stop away from nabbing his sixth win of the year.

1. Kyle Busch, 2,040 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Texas, Bristol, Richmond, Charlotte)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Being the regular-season points leader is worth 15 playoff points, and Busch is first after Michigan. That ensures he's first in this field, too.