Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Darlington

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 25 regular-season races (out of 26) following Brad Keselowski's win at Darlington.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top-10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending with one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. All of the above drivers are in must-win situations.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman is more than a full race worth of points ahead of any driver below the cutoff line with just one regular-season contest remaining. Barring someone below him in the standings winning at Indianapolis, he's in the playoffs.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: The No. 48 team was fast on the speed chart all weekend, but finished 39th in the race with engine issues. It was a painful setback for a team that appears close to turning the corner, but can't quite get there.

14. Aric Almirola, 2,001 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Almirola officially locked up his spot in the NASCAR Playoffs at Darlington, showing plenty of moxie at one of the toughest tracks on the circuit.

13. Denny Hamlin, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin joined Almirola by clinching a postseason berth via points, but he was never really in the running for a win despite winning the Busch Pole Award.

12. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Finishing on the lead lap was impressive Sunday -- just 16 cars did so -- and Dillon showed plenty of fight battling with Kyle Larson at the end of Stage 1 and Stage 2.

11. Erik Jones, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jones is a threat to win every week, but his postseason outlook would improve greatly with the addition of a few more playoff points.

10. Kyle Larson, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3* (1 does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection fail)
Note: Larson jumps three spots in the standings, but boy, he was inches away -- literally -- from climbing even more. His near-miss at Darlington on the heels of coming out second on the final pit stop will sting for a while.

9. Ryan Blaney, 2,007 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 5
Note: Blaney didn't have his typical speed at Darlington, and he dropped two spots in the standings -- losing two playoff points, as a result.

8. Chase Elliott, 2,008 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Watkins Glen)
Stage wins: 3
Note: A top-five at Darlington seems to indicate Elliott is peaking at the perfect time -- just as the playoffs are about to begin.

7. Clint Bowyer, 2,013 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowyer drilled Ryan Newman's car as the No. 31 was slowing up to pit, ruining his night and falling three spots in these standings as a result.

6. Kurt Busch, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Bristol-2)
Stage wins: 2
Note: There's a logjam to get into the top five now that Brad Keselowski has won. Three drivers would begin the playoffs with 2,014 points if they started today, and Busch ranks third out of these three due to tiebreaking procedures (best finish).

5. Joey Logano, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 3
Note: A runner-up finish behind teammate Brad Keselowski was Logano's second-best showing of the season.

4. Brad Keselowski, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Darlington)
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski's win at Darlington and ascension in the regular-season standings was worth seven playoff points in one weekend, making him the highest riser of the week.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,035 points

Qualified via: 4 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma, Kentucky)
Stage wins: 7
Note: Truex Jr. said his team would be eliminated in the second round if it didn't fix its mistakes, but he has enough playoff points banked to withstand a few rough outings.

2. Kyle Busch, 2,050 points

Qualified via: 6 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland, Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Busch didn't clinch the Regular Season Championship at Darlington, but he enters Indianapolis up 39 points on Kevin Harvick.

1. Kevin Harvick, 2,050 points

Qualified via: 7 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1, New Hampshire, Michigan-2)*
Stage wins: 12*
Note: It will be difficult for Harvick to catch Kyle Busch for the Regular Season Championship, but a stage win ... or two ... or a race win ... would make Indianapolis all the more sweeter. (Note: One race win and two stage wins will not count toward Harvick's playoff points total)