Predictions and likelihoods for 2018 NASCAR Playoffs

Las Vegas loves to make odds. As the site of Sunday's Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs opener (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM), the time seems right to take on some of the most likely developments and best bets for the 10-race home stretch. With the postseason ready to roll, here are five predictions and likelihoods for the NASCAR Playoffs.

MOST LIKELY WILD-CARD RACE: Move over, Talladega. The all-new event on the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course promises to pack in plenty of uncertainty. Factor in its position as a Round of 16 elimination race, and the potential for chaos grows. Desperate drivers outside the playoff cut line should have opportunity for desperate measures in the playoffs' biggest unknown. (Honorable mentions: Talladega, Martinsville)

MOST LIKELY CHAMPIONSHIP 4 LOCK: The speed shown by Kevin Harvick may be reason enough, but there's a steadying consistency lingering underneath to support the flash. Seven victories in 26 races equal a winning clip of 26.9 percent, but his 19 top-five finishes (also a series best) move him to the head of the class of postseason favorites. (Honorable mentions: Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr.)

MOST LIKELY TEAM TO SEND MULTIPLE DRIVERS TO HOMESTEAD: Joe Gibbs Racing has its own Championship 4 favorite in Kyle Busch, a six-time winner this year. But teammates Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones have experienced late-summer boosts to buoy their postseason hopes. If you count fellow Toyota driver Martin Truex Jr. as a virtual JGR affiliate via Furniture Row Racing, things are looking up for the Coach. (Honorable mention: Stewart-Haas Racing, Team Penske)

MOST UNLIKELY UNDERDOG: Jimmie Johnson enters the final stretch of his hands-down most difficult season tied with Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman for the final spot in the field of 16. It's unfamiliar footing for a seven-time champion, who has just two top-five results through the first 26 races. The 'sleeping giant' metaphors persist, but can the No. 48 group wake up in time to make an impact? (Honorable mention: None)

MOST LIKELY NON-PLAYOFF DRIVER TO STEAL A WIN: The 16 championship-eligible drivers remain the favored candidates to monopolize Victory Lane the rest of the way. But if anyone can elbow his way into that crowded room, it's likely Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Talladega Superspeedway on the basis of Roush Fenway Racing's restrictor-plate strength. Elbowing might be part of it, given his rambunctious run at Daytona in July. (Honorable mentions: Daniel Suarez at Dover, AJ Allmendinger at Charlotte Roval)