Assessing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup bubble

By Zack Albert

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series takes a break this weekend, a rare breather as the jockeying for remaining Chase postseason berths intensifies. Just 15 races into the season, 10 drivers have scored victories to virtually seal their playoff fates. That leaves six spots up for grabs in the remaining 11 regular-season races for drivers to either qualify on the basis of points or punch their ticket for the Chase grid with victories.

With the engines idle for now, let's take an overview look at the top contenders firmly on the Chase bubble, still searching for that first 2016 win.

6. Chase Elliott

Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: The Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings leader has shown remarkable consistency, logging six top-five finishes and 11 top-10 efforts thus far. He's also led laps in bunches the last two weeks, inching closer and closer to a breakthrough win. Barring a week-over-week catastrophe, Elliott can probably rely on his points position down the regular season's home stretch. Based on his recent proximity to a Victory Lane visit, he may not need to.
Ticket-punching possibility: Pocono, where he led a Sprint Cup Series career-best 51 laps earlier this month.

11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: With four runner-up finishes already this season, Earnhardt has been right on Victory Lane's doorstep. Wild fits of inconsistency, though, have left him fumbling for the door's keys. With admittedly dreadful luck (including three DNFs in the last six races), Earnhardt said that this weekend's break is a welcome one. The No. 88 group aims to hit the reset button when the Sprint Cup Series resumes June 26 at Sonoma.
Ticket-punching possibility: Darlington, which could produce a coveted throwback triumph in the Gray Ghost paint scheme, though Earnhardt would certainly rather wrap up a Chase spot before Labor Day.

12. Austin Dillon

Team: Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: Two months ago, Dillon sat in seventh place in the drivers' standings -- his high-water mark for 2016. He's cooled significantly since, with crashes at Dover and Pocono distancing him from the top 10. RCR's speed has vastly improved, but all the pieces still need to fall in place to contend for wins.
Ticket-punching possibility: Kentucky, where he's won twice in XFINITY competition.

14. Jamie McMurray

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: McMurray eked into his first career playoff appearance last year, and he's firmly on the edge of doing so again. But performance gains are needed to solidify the footing, which is teetering on the foundation of several finishes in the teens and a zero in the 2016 laps-led column.
Ticket-punching possibility: Daytona. Four of McMurray's seven career wins have come on restrictor-plate tracks, where he's a fine fiddler with the draft.

15. Ryan Newman

Team: Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: Still clinging to a Chase position, but also still seeking his first top-five finish of the year. Newman has demonstrated a dose of consistency this year, but it's thus far shown in achieving results on the fringes of 10th place. The urgency to end a losing streak that's nearing three full years grows.
Ticket-punching possibility: New Hampshire, where he has three wins and seven Coors Light Pole Awards over the course of his career.

16. Ryan Blaney

Team: Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford
Provisional Chase grid: In.
Chase outlook: Two rookies in the Chase? It's never happened before, but Blaney is positioned to follow Chase Elliott's lead into the playoff field. The Wood Brothers should continue to reap benefits from their technical alliance with Team Penske, which has come on strong in recent weeks.
Ticket-punching possibility: Bristol, where he's won in both the XFINITY and Camping World Truck Series.

17. Kasey Kahne

Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: Kahne sits 11 points behind Ryan Blaney's delicate hold on the final Chase spot, but still needs a leap forward in the results column. The collection of two top-five runs is outnumbered by an accumulation of six finishes in the back half of the field.
Ticket-punching possibility: Richmond, where he finished fourth in April and the site of the first premier-series victory of his career.

18. Trevor Bayne

Team: Roush Fenway Racing No. 6 Ford
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: A much-needed revival in performance this year has pushed Bayne as close to the Chase as he's ever been. Driving his way into the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race for the first time was a season highlight, but he would need more than an exhibition segment win to make the postseason jump.
Ticket-punching possibility: Daytona, site of his only Sprint Cup victory in the 2011 running of 'The Great American Race.'

19. (tie). AJ Allmendinger

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing No. 47 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: After matching his career-best oval track finish -- a second-place drive at Martinsville in April -- Allmendinger's record in 2016 has been much choppier, dropping him seven spots in the standings in two months' time. A twice-knocking opportunity comes calling next weekend and again in August, when he puts his road-racing skill back on display.
Ticket-punching possibility: Sonoma or Watkins Glen, where his road-course savvy could carry him to his second-ever Chase berth.

19. (tie) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Team: Roush Fenway Racing No. 17 Ford
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: After finishes of 27th and 25th in the final standings the last two years, Stenhouse has made gains back to the points position of his rookie season (2013). Breaking through that ceiling will require more finishes like his season-best fifth place at Auto Club Speedway in March.
Ticket-punching possibility: Bristol, where he's notched two of his four career top-five finishes in the Sprint Cup Series.

21. Kyle Larson

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: A post-Michigan penalty knocked Larson out of the top 20 in points, but his recent rise -- including laps led in four of the last six races -- is palpable. The season overall has been a feast-or-famine affair with four top-10 efforts offset by four finishes of 34th or worse. Larson needs to string together solid results with regularity, but a win in any of the 11 races before the Chase would almost cure all ills.
Ticket-punching possibility: Michigan, where he ran an impressive third last weekend. Honorable mention to Indianapolis, where he is 2-for-2 in top-10 finishes in his short career.

35. Tony Stewart

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Chevrolet
Provisional Chase grid: Out.
Chase outlook: After missing the first eight races of the season with a severe back injury, Stewart sits as a true wild-card with two mandatory checklist items to qualify for the Chase -- moving into the top 30 in points and securing a win. Mechanical issues at Dover and a crash at Pocono have stemmed the progress, but a relief-driver-aided sixth at Talladega and a seventh at Michigan have helped the cause.
Ticket-punching possibility: Indianapolis, his best track by average finish (9.6) and where a homegrown third Brickyard victory would send the Hoosier State faithful into delirium. Highly honorable mention to Watkins Glen, where the road-adept Stewart tops NASCAR's all-time win list with five victories.