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By: RJ Kraft
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $24.25
Fastlane forecast: Over the past three years (five races), Hamlin has the best average finish (3.2) at the superspeedway – with no finish worse than sixth. He has also led the second-most laps in that stretch (125). The Daytona 500 winner is aiming to be the sixth driver to complete the sweep at Daytona. Hamlin is a great play this weekend.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Earnhardt
Fantasy Live price: $25.75
Fastlane forecast: The presumptive favorite entering the weekend as well as the defending race winner. In the past three years, Dale Jr. has led the most laps at Daytona (197) and has two of his four wins at the track. With the second-best driver rating (95.3) and average running position (13.618) in the loop data era, it's hard to argue against Junior this weekend.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Logano has won two of the past six races on restrictor-plate tracks but has fared a bit better at Daytona overall. In the past five races at the 2.5-mile track, Logano has a win and a total place differential of +49. 'Sliced Bread' has a growing reputation for being solid pretty much everywhere, making him a good play this weekend.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Since sweeping the 2013 Daytona points races, Johnson has three top-five finishes and the third-best average running position (14.089). Yet, something seems amiss with the 48 team lately as it has six finishes outside the top 10 in the past seven 2016 races. He's led just 13 laps over that stretch. The value simply isn't there.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Truex's overall body of work at Daytona is far from impressive, but the guy was barely edged out for the Daytona 500 win in February. The downside: His average finish at Daytona is 22.2 – his worst among all tracks. If you have Truex at a discount, play him. Otherwise, you should look elsewhere.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Daytona has been a mixed bag for the defending series champion. 'Rowdy' won this race in 2008. On top of that, he has the best average running position (13.116) and third-most laps led (348) in the loop data era. Despite all that, he has just one top 10 in his last eight starts at the 2.5-mile track. There's higher risk with everyone at Daytona, but Busch's June swoon is behind him.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth's overall resume at Daytona is sound with two wins, and he was in position to win the 2016 Daytona 500. However, he has just one top 10 and three finishes of 33rd-or-worse in his seven starts at Daytona with JGR. The track isn't a powerhouse for him, so it comes down to what price you have him at.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Restrictor-plate tracks are not Edwards' forte as he has made 47 starts combined at Daytona and Talladega with no wins and just 52 laps led (0.89 percent of his career laps). Prior to his top five in this year's Daytona 500, Edwards had an average finish of 30.0 in the past six races there. At a price that high, it is advisable to look elsewhere.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 ChevroletLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: In 61 starts on restrictor-plate tracks, the 2004 champion has yet to score a win. However, he does have top 10s in more than half his starts (32). Busch has been a top 10 machine in 2016 – with 14 on the year through 16 races – and he has four in his last five Daytona starts. Busch has been one of the most consistent drivers all year and is a good play this weekend.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has four top-four finishes in the past six Daytona races, and that has come with him not leading any of 1,037 laps run in that stretch. He also has had three races with at least a +23 place differential in that time. The points leader is a two-time winner at the superspeedway and is a sound choice pretty much every week for your lineup.
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SLEEPER PICK
Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 ChevroletLearn more about Dillon
Fantasy Live price: $20.00
Fastlane forecast: Daytona is Dillon's best track with a 12.5 average finish, and he has four top 10s there in six starts. RCR's prowess on the restrictor-plate tracks is well-known, adding further fuel to the belief that Dillon is a strong play this weekend.
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SLEEPER PICK
Tony Stewart
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 ChevroletLearn more about Stewart
Fantasy Live price: $14.00
Fastlane forecast: The Sonoma winner has struggled at Daytona in recent years. However, all four of his wins at the track have come in the summer race at the superspeedway, and his 551 laps led are the most in the loop data era. At this price, 'Smoke' is well worth it.
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VALUE PLAY
Casey Mears
Germain Racing, No. 13 ChevroletLearn more about Mears
Fantasy Live price: $9.25
Fastlane forecast: Mears' price has dropped nearly $4 since the start of the year, making him a real steal at this value for Daytona. Why? Five top-11 finishes in his past six starts there, as well as four races with double-digit place differential gains in that stretch.
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VALUE PLAY
Michael McDowell
Circle Sport-Leavine Family Racing, No. 95 ChevroletLearn more about McDowell
Fantasy Live price: $7.50
Fastlane forecast: McDowell is a real solid choice to round out your roster because of the value he brings in place differential. Three of his past five Daytona starts have seen the veteran driver finish with at least 20 spots gained from start to finish.