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Fantasy Fastlane: Citizen Soldier 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: September 26, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $23.75
Fastlane forecast: Johnson's 10 wins at the 'Monster Mile' are the most all-time and he has led a whopping 3,003 laps. He also owns the top average running position (7.942) and driver rating (118.1) in the loop data era. Build around the 48 this weekend.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $24.75
Fastlane forecast: With the Chase in full swing, Elliott has found the speed that was lacking during his summer swoon. The rookie was strong at Dover in his first run here in May – notching a third-place finish at the 1-mile track. He is a solid start.
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Kyle Larson
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 ChevroletLearn more about Larson
Fantasy Live price: $25.00
Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish (6.2), Dover is Larson's best track and he has no finish of worse than 11th in five starts. He led 85 laps in the spring en route to a runner-up finish. The rising star has been solid of late, so continue to trust him.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $25.75
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has one win at Dover (in 2007). The more recent history at the 'Monster Mile' has not been kind with an average finish of 19.4 in his past seven starts. Those numbers suggest staying away from Edwards this weekend.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth is a three-time winner at Dover and the most recent winner there. In his last 11 starts at Dover, Kenseth has eight top-seven finishes. After a near miss at New Hampshire, he is well worth the play this weekend.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano has been tough to figure out in 2016 with 19 top 10s but just 390 laps led. At Dover, Logano has led just three laps -- his lowest at any track. Combine that with the high price and it's a reason enough to look elsewhere.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Truex's first win came at Dover in 2007 and he has five straight top-11 finishes there. He was nearly unstoppable in September with two wins, an average finish of 3.0 and 394 laps led (of a possible 1,344) in that stretch. Ride the wave.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Dover has been boom-or-bust for Busch. In his last nine starts there, he has five top 10s and 589 laps led but also has four finishes of 29th-or-worse. The 2015 champ has two wins at Dover and is trending upward. Roll with 'Rowdy.'
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has six top fives in his last eight races even though something seems a little amiss. He has one Dover win -- in this very race in his title year (2012). Kes has led 155 laps in the past four races here making a solid, if unspectacular play.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.75
Fastlane forecast: Harvick could well score back-to-back wins. On top of dominating this race last fall, the 2014 champion has led 810 laps (of a possible 2,005) in his last five starts here. For perspective, he led just 145 laps in 26 starts at Dover prior to that.
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SLEEPER PICK
Jeff Gordon
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 ChevroletLearn more about Gordon
Fantasy Live price: $22.50
Fastlane forecast: A five-time winner at Dover, Gordon has led the third-most laps all time at the 1-mile track (2,389). The veteran is a solid buy.
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SLEEPER PICK
Ryan Blaney
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 FordLearn more about Blaney
Fantasy Live price: $16.25
Fastlane forecast: At tracks around 1-mile this year, Blaney has an average finish of 10.25 (finished eighth at Dover in May). The price point is perfect.
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VALUE PLAY
Danica Patrick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 ChevroletLearn more about Patrick
Fantasy Live price: $15.25
Fastlane forecast: Danica has an average place differential of +7.4 in eight Dover starts. The average jumps to +13 over the past three races for a nice play.
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VALUE PLAY
David Ragan
BK Racing, No. 23 ToyotaLearn more about Ragan
Fantasy Live price: $7.00
Fastlane forecast: In eight of his last nine starts at Dover, Ragan has a positive place differential (average of +5). That has a subtle, effective impact.