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Fantasy Fastlane: Bank of America 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 4, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $24.00
Fastlane forecast: Johnson is a seven-time winner at Charlotte but only two of those wins have come since 2006. The Hendrick driver is a loop data darling with the top driver rating (109.6) and average running position (8.31). The price is more than reasonable.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $25.00
Fastlane forecast: The rookie looks more and more like the driver who was a top 10 machine in the spring. Elliott finished eighth at Charlotte in May and has five top 10s in seven starts at 1.5-mile tracks this year. Chase is a solid play for this Chase race.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Edwards has one win at Charlotte and owns the second-best average finish at the track (10.9). The veteran driver has just one top 10 in his past five races. The price point is pretty favorable, though, as a third driver in your lineup.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $26.50
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin may not have a points-paying win at Charlotte, but he has 11 top 10s in his past 12 starts there – he had just three such finishes in his first 10 starts. Denny has continued his summer surge in the Chase and is a good play this weekend.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth has two wins at Charlotte and was on the pole for this race last year. The 2003 champion got the first of his 38 victories here and has six top 10s in his last 10 starts at the 1.5-mile track. He led 72 laps in this race last year and is a solid play.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano dominated this race last year en route to a sweep of the Round of 12. Charlotte is his best track with a 9.5 average finish in 15 starts. The lack of laps led (just one) in the past month is alarming, but the finishes are there (6.8 avg. finish).
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Charlotte remains one of two tracks Busch has yet to win at. The loop data says otherwise: Most laps led (907) and the second-best driver rating (104.6) and average running position (9.85). The defending champ is a good play.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: With wins in three of the past five races (and 581 laps led in that stretch), its easy to forget how dominant Truex was in May at Charlotte. He led all but eight laps (or 12 miles) in that race. Build around the 78 this weekend.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's lone Charlotte win came in this race in 2013. His overall body of work at the 1.5-mile track is OK, but his run of five top fives in his past six 2016 races is where the value lies. Expect the 2 car to be close to the front.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.50
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has three wins at Charlotte, including a victory in this race in 2014. In his past seven starts at the 1.5-mile track, he has an average finish of 3.3 with two wins and three runner-ups in that stretch. That record speaks for itself.
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SLEEPER PICK
Kasey Kahne
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 ChevroletLearn more about Kahne
Fantasy Live price: $23.50
Fastlane forecast: Kahne’s four wins at Charlotte are his most at any track. Add in his recent surge with four top 10s in five races and he is an intriguing buy.
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SLEEPER PICK
Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 ChevroletLearn more about Austin Dillon
Fantasy Live price: $22.00
Fastlane forecast: Charlotte is Dillon's best non-plate track with a 12.8 average finish and a place differential of +8.2. He is a sneaky roster play.
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VALUE PLAY
Casey Mears
Germain Racing, No. 13 ChevroletLearn more about Mears
Fantasy Live price: $9.50
Fastlane forecast: Mears won at Charlotte in 2007 for his lone Sprint Cup victory. He also has a double-digit positive place differential in two of his past five starts here.
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VALUE PLAY
Matt DiBenedetto
BK Racing, No. 83 ToyotaLearn more about DiBenedetto
Fantasy Live price: $5.25
Fastlane forecast: In three starts at Charlotte, DiBenedetto has an average place differential of +7. That makes for a nice play to round out the roster.