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Fantasy Fastlane: Hellmann’s 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 17, 2016 15
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 ChevroletLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $24.50
Fastlane forecast: Restrictor-plate races have long been the 2004 champion's proverbial 'White Whale.' In 62 points-paying tries at Daytona and Talladega, he is winless. He does have three top 10s in his last four starts at 'Dega, but his last top five there came in '07.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $24.75
Fastlane forecast: In his lone premier series start at Talladega, Elliott scored the pole and led 27 laps en route to a top-five finish. He's had speed of late with 183 of Elliott's 346 laps led coming in the Chase. Cars will draft with a fast hotrod, so stay with the rookie.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $25.25
Fastlane forecast: Johnson may be locked into the Round of 8 but don't sleep on him at Talladega. In his last four races there, the two-time 'Dega winner has led 168 of 766 laps (21.9 percent) at the Alabama track. That's more than restrictor-plate ace Dale Jr. in that stretch.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Both of Hamlin's restrictor-plate wins have come in the past three years. His Talladega win came in 2014 and is in the middle of four finishes of 30th-or-worse. The numbers say Denny is more comfortable at Daytona and we're more comfortable with him there, too.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Logano is the defending race winner but his 2015 Chase race at Talladega is his only top 10 here in his four years at Penske. The two-car team has three wins in the last four restrictor-plate races. Given his Chase position, expect Logano to be near the front.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: His numbers at JGR might not back it up, but Kenseth is a solid restrictor-plate racer. The 2003 champ has just one win at Talladega, but in the loop data era, he has the second-most laps led (451) and second-best average running position. The veteran is solid.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: With Junior sidelined, Keselowski has the best Talladega resume in the field with four wins. The '12 champ only controls his Chase destiny with a win and he has shown the ability to rise up in clutch spots -- see his '14 win here. Build around the No. 2.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Truex has four top 10s in his last seven Talladega starts and nearly won the season-opening Daytona 500. He may not have any victories on restrictor-plate tracks, but he's no liability. If you have a discount price on Truex, hold onto him.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: 'Rowdy' has one career win at Talladega and nabbed a runner-up finish in the spring. In the 14 races in between that, he has as many top 10s as finishes of 33rd-or-worse at ‘Dega—four. Long range, holding him sets up well for the last four races.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $28.25
Fastlane forecast: The 2014 champion has one win at Talladega. He also has just one finish outside the top 15 in his past eight starts here. Locked into the Round of 8, it's OK to look to drivers in win-or-go-home mode, but there's no harm in holding onto the 4.
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SLEEPER PICK
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 FordLearn more about Stenhouse
Fantasy Live price: $15.25
Fastlane forecast: Nearly 20 percent of Stenhouse's top 10s have come at 'Dega. He holds the best average finish (12.8) among drivers with more than one start.
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SLEEPER PICK
Clint Bowyer
HScott Motorsports, No. 15 ChevroletLearn more about Bowyer
Fantasy Live price: $14.25
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has two wins at the 2.66-mile track. He also has five top-10 finishes here in his past six races. The veteran gets it done at 'Dega.
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VALUE PLAY
Bobby Labonte
Go Fas Racing, No. 32 FordLearn more about Bobby Labonte
Fantasy Live price: $10.00
Fastlane forecast: Labonte has an average place differential of +11.6 over his last seven starts at Talladega. The 52-year-old has one Sprint Cup win here, in 1998.
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VALUE PLAY
Landon Cassill
Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 FordLearn more about Cassill
Fantasy Live price: $7.75
Fastlane forecast: Cassill has an average place differential of +10 at 'Dega, including five races where he gained at least 20 spots over the course of the day.