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Fantasy Fastlane: Can-Am 500
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 7, 2016 16
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the outlook for the top drivers as well as two sleepers and two value plays based on NASCAR Fantasy Live prices. NASCAR.com fantasy expert RJ Kraft breaks down the drivers you want in your lineup and which drivers you want to avoid for this week.
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Kurt Busch
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 ChevroletLearn more about Kurt Busch
Fantasy Live price: $23.75
Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champ has five top-seven finishes in his last six starts at Phoenix. Juxtapose that with a cold spell of five top 10s and seven laps led in the past 14 races of '16. Even if you are in a gambling mood, it’s hard to justify the roll of the dice here.
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Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 ChevroletLearn more about Elliott
Fantasy Live price: $25.50
Fastlane forecast: In five starts at 1-mile tracks this year, Elliott has three top 10s – including an eighth-place finish at Phoenix. From one race, the rookie has the second-best average running position (8.76) at the track. Chase is worth the investment.
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Carl Edwards
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 ToyotaLearn more about Edwards
Fantasy Live price: $26.00
Fastlane forecast: Edwards is a two-time Phoenix winner. He led 65 laps in a spring race that saw Kevin Harvick edging him at the line. We like the price point, but the strategy games that could come from being locked into the Championship 4 have us a bit leery.
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Matt Kenseth
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 ToyotaLearn more about Kenseth
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Kenseth's lone Phoenix win came in 2002 and statistically, this track is his fourth-worst (16.3 average position). Yet, the veteran's two wins this year are at 1-mile venues so it’s hard to completely discount him from consideration.
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Jimmie Johnson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 ChevroletLearn more about Johnson
Fantasy Live price: $26.25
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has four wins at Phoenix, but the last one came in 2009. A slew of top fives since then put 'Six-Time' atop the track’s driver rating (112.0) and average running position (7.89). The track history says go with JJ in the desert.
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Brad Keselowski
Team Penske, No. 2 FordLearn more about Keselowski
Fantasy Live price: $26.75
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has seven top 10s in his last nine starts in the desert. And while he hasn't led laps in bunches at the 1-mile track, he's been in contention. A solid play, although we like his teammate for a few extra coins this weekend.
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Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 ToyotaLearn more about Hamlin
Fantasy Live price: $27.00
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin won at Phoenix in 2012 and has an average of finish of 11.0 at the track. That total is boosted by 10 top fives in 22 starts. While Toyotas have been solid at 1-mile tracks in ’16, Hamlin hasn't led much. He's a bit pricey for this race.
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Martin Truex Jr.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 ToyotaLearn more about Truex
Fantasy Live price: $27.25
Fastlane forecast: Truex's overall body of work at Phoenix – one top five, average finish of 16.8 in 21 starts is not eye-catching. However, his work at 1-mile tracks this year is: One win and 498 laps led. He may be out of the Chase, but Truex is still a fantasy factor.
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Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 FordLearn more about Logano
Fantasy Live price: $27.50
Fastlane forecast: Logano has five top 10s in his last six Phoenix starts and led the second-most laps (156) in that stretch. He's found his stride in the season's closing push – leading over one-third of his laps (244 of 639) in the past three races. Ride the wave here.
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Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 ChevroletLearn more about Harvick
Fantasy Live price: $27.75
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is the king of Phoenix – with eight wins (six coming in the last eight races there). He has led 1,484 laps there in his career with 994 laps led in the last five races. Pretty much in need of a win to advance, 'El Toro' is a must-start here.
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Kyle Busch
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 ToyotaLearn more about Kyle Busch
Fantasy Live price: $28.00
Fastlane forecast: The spring pole winner led 75 laps here in March on the way to his second straight fourth-place finish. His lone Phoenix win came in 2005 – 20 starts ago. Still, 'Rowdy' has led the third-most laps (585) in the loop data era. Busch is a strong play.
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SLEEPER PICK
Ryan Blaney
Wood Brothers Ford, No. 21 FordLearn more about Blaney
Fantasy Live price: $16.75
Fastlane forecast: Blaney notched a top 10 here in March and has four top-12 finishes at 1-mile venues in 2016. The rookie has been steady in the closing races and the price point makes for an intriguing pick.
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SLEEPER PICK
Danica Patrick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 ChevroletLearn more about Patrick
Fantasy Live price: $15.75
Fastlane forecast: At the 1-mile venues this year, Danica has a place differential of +10.4. In her last four starts at Phoenix, Danica has a place differential of +7.3. That can help boost a fantasy lineup.
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VALUE PLAY
Aric Almirola
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 FordLearn more about Almirola
Fantasy Live price: $13.00
Fastlane forecast: Over the past nine races at Phoenix, Almirola has never finished outside the top 20. In the past four races at the 1-mile track, he has a place differential of +6.5. Under the radar value there.
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VALUE PLAY
David Ragan
BK Racing, No. 23 ToyotaLearn more about Ragan
Fantasy Live price: $5.50
Fastlane forecast: In four of his past Phoenix starts, Ragan has had a positive place differential – an average of +4 in that stretch. The veteran is at a real low price to round out your roster.