Analysis: Meet the 2021 Round of 12 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs field

The NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12 playoff field is set. The Round of 12 consists of Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. Before the start of the round, RJ Kraft breaks down each playoff driver with a look at his playoff elimination history (since the current postseason format was installed in 2014), favorable track, plus strengths and weaknesses to keep in mind as the playoff drama unfolds.

1. Kyle Larson, 3,059 points, 6 wins


No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2016; Was not playoff eligible in 2020.

Favorable track: Las Vegas ... with a win, four top fives and an average finish of 9.8 in 10 starts.

Kyle Larson, continued

Strengths: Let's start with the obvious -- Larson has been the best overall performer on 1.5-mile tracks this season. He has two wins on them -- including a win at a playoff track in Las Vegas -- and has led 836 laps on that track type -- the next closest total is 152. With three of those tracks in the postseason, including a Round of 8 with two of those, it makes for a major opportunity for him. His performance on 750-horsepower ovals has not been nearly as good, but it has been solid enough to not hinder him in the playoffs. He has had speed on road courses as evidenced by two road-course wins this season and four top-three finishes on that track type. His crew has been the fastest based on average four-tire stops (13.657 seconds), per Racing Insights. 




Weaknesses: Five of the final six tracks on the schedule are among some of his worst based on average finish. Let's start with the Round of 12 -- if he doesn't get off to a good start at Las Vegas, it is cause for concern as he has just two top 10s in 13 Talladega starts and no top 10s in two Charlotte Roval starts. The Round of 8 gets a little dicier for him with Texas and Martinsville as the main points of concern. He has just one top five and three finishes of 36th or worse in his last five races at Texas, while at Martinsville, he has just three top 10s in 13 starts -- although two of them have come in his last two races there. We saw last year with Kevin Harvick that it doesn't matter how many playoff points you are carrying into the Round of 8, if you don't perform, you will not advance.

2. Martin Truex Jr., 3,029 points, 4 wins


No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Won championship in 2017; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Did not make playoffs in 2014.

Favorable track: Las Vegas ... with two wins and an average of 10.7 in 19 starts.

Martin Truex Jr., continued


Strengths: All four of Truex’s wins (Darlington, Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond) this season have come at tracks that are part of the playoffs -- demonstrating the 19 team's emphasis on prioritizing the 750-horsepower package. He had spring wins at tracks where the final two races will take place, and that should give him a leg up on those weekends. He has been solid on 1.5-mile tracks this year with the fifth-best average finish on that track length. With all of that, we haven't touched on his road record -- where he has four wins and nearly won the Charlotte Roval race in 2018.



Weaknesses: The spring and summer stretch has seen Truex have two three-race stints of finishes outside the top 10 -- and that is something he can ill-afford to have the deeper we get into the playoffs. Truex's lack of a win on a superspeedway stands out with Talladega part of the Round of 12 -- he is 0-for-66 on that track type. For a driver who won his 2017 championship on the back of his 1.5-mile track dominance, it is interesting to note he has not led a lap on a 1.5-mile track since Las Vegas in March. That could become a factor in the Round of 8 where there are two 1.5-mile tracks (Texas and Kansas).

3. Denny Hamlin, 3,024 points, 1 win

No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.

Favorable track: Martinsville ... with five wins and an average finish of 9.7 in 31 starts.

Denny Hamlin, continued


Strengths: Hamlin was a top-two car throughout the Round of 16 with a win, four stage wins and the most laps led. The Round of 8 sets up well for Hamlin as he has 11 combined wins at Texas (3), Kansas (3) and Martinsville (5). He has been remarkably consistent on 1.5-mile tracks (fourth-best average finish) and a hair better on ovals with the 750-horsepower power (best average finish). At five of the seven tracks the series visits in the regular season that are also in the playoffs, he scored top fives in five of them. Hamlin's pit crew has posted the fourth-fastest average four-tire pit-stop time (13.875 seconds) per Racing Insights. 




Weaknesses: As good as he has been on superspeedways of late, Talladega can be a mixed bag for any driver -- look at his last five races there: 32nd, 1st, 4th, 3rd and 36th. In three starts at the Charlotte Roval, he has not finished better than 12th. Hamlin has cut down on pit-road mistakes in recent years, but he is prone to a speeding penalty at the wrong time.

4. Ryan Blaney, 3,024 points, 3 wins


No. 12 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2016.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... with a win and an average finish of 4.7 in three starts.

Ryan Blaney, continued


Strengths: The Round of 12 sets up well for Blaney as he has three wins combined at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval, while Las Vegas is his best 1.5-mile track on the schedule. Speaking of 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has top fives in three of those six races so far in 2021, and that bodes well with Texas and Kansas both in the Round of 8. Martinsville has also been a strong track for him -- average finish of 10.7. The 2021 season is the first multi-win season of his Cup career.




Weaknesses: The Round of 16 was the biggest bugaboo for Blaney and he made it through -- meaning a deep playoff run can be had based on past success at a number of the tracks after that. Like most drivers, Talladega could trip him up -- even with two wins there, he has crashed out of three of the last nine races. The No. 12 pit crew ranks outside the top 10 in average four-tire pit stops (per Racing Insights) among the playoff teams.

5. Kyle Busch, 3,022 points, 2 wins


No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: Won championships in 2015 and 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014, 2020.

Favorable track: Texas ... with four wins and an average finish of 11.0 in 30 starts.

Kyle Busch, continued


Strengths: The 1.5-mile tracks in the playoffs are a major opportunity for Busch as he has the best average finish on that track length in 2021 as well as the most top fives (5) and top 10s (6) in those six races. With two wins on the Texas repave, he has a leg up on that track as well. He has jelled well in the summer months with new crew chief Ben Beshore, and this team feels like it's just beginning to scratch the surface.




Weaknesses: Busch has struggled with the 750-horsepower package this season on ovals. He has the 16th-most points in those 11 races. The Round of 12 could be the bugaboo for "Rowdy." Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval are among some of his worst tracks on the Cup circuit based on average finish, and he only has two combined wins at those tracks in 55 starts.
 The Round of 16 saw him with mistakes in each race -- an accident at Darlington, a pit-road penalty at Richmond and a cut tire at Bristol. Mistakes like that in any round from here could lead to elimination.

6. Chase Elliott, 3,021 points, 2 wins


No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Won championship in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... with two wins and an average finish of 2.7 in three starts.

Chase Elliott, continued


Strengths: Elliott's road-course success has been well documented as he has seven of his 13 Cup wins on road courses. He has won the last two races at the Charlotte Roval, so that gives him a leg up on that wild card to close out the Round of 12. Elliott has been steady with the 750-horsepower package on ovals and showed speed throughout the Round of 16. He closed out last postseason strong with wins at Martinsville and Phoenix to win the title, and that surely has to be a confidence boost the deeper we get into the playoffs. He is a performer on the big stage as six of his 13 Cup wins have come in the playoffs. Elliott's pit crew has the third-best average four-tire stop time this season (13.747 seconds), per Racing Insights. 




Weaknesses: The lead-off track in the Round of 12 (Las Vegas) has not been friendly to Elliott over the years. It's his third-worst track based on average finish. He's had promising runs at both go awry in recent years. The bigger concern for Elliott would be his performance on 1.5-mile tracks. His average finish of 13.2 is just 13th best in the series this season -- in the lower half among those drivers in the playoffs. That could make the Round of 8 a bit more problematic for him as two of those tracks are part of those three races. Two incidents in the Round of 16 led to two finishes outside the top 20 and that can not be a repeat occurrence in any round moving forward.

7. Alex Bowman, 3,015 points, 3 wins


No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2020; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015. Was not playoff eligible in 2016, 2017.

Favorable track: Charlotte Roval ... with two top fives and an average finish of 4.7 in three starts.

Alex Bowman, continued


Strengths: Bowman's No. 48 pit crew, led by crew chief Greg Ives, has been one of the best in the regular season as its efforts directly led to him getting the lead at Dover, to him being in position to be on the front row for the final restart of his Richmond win and to him being in position to capitalize at Pocono when Kyle Larson's tire went down on the last lap. The pit crew has posted the fifth-best average four-tire stop time this season (13.894 seconds), per Racing Insights. His body of work on 1.5-mile tracks has been solid with the eighth-best average finish on that track type. He also holds the 10th-best road-course average finish this season and has been quite underrated on that track type. This is a team that has already rose to the occasion once by staving off elimination at Bristol.


Weaknesses: While Bowman has two wins with the 750-horsepower package on ovals, the overall results with it have been a real mixed bag, especially at tracks that are in the playoffs ... Martinsville (34th) and Phoenix (13th) in addition to his Richmond win. His non-top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks both came at playoff tracks in Las Vegas and Kansas. The lack of solid results on tracks in the first visits this year that are also in the playoffs is quite concerning. The 48 hasn't had the raw speed that his teammates have had throughout the year across different track types.

8. William Byron, 3,014 points, 1 win


No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2020; Did not make playoffs in 2018.

Favorable track: Kansas ... with four straight top 10s and an average finish of 8.0 in that stretch.

William Byron, continued


Strengths: Byron's already been on the brink of elimination, but a third-place run at Bristol pushed him through to the next round. That type of test early in the postseason could be invaluable for a young team led by first-year crew chief Rudy Fugle. Talladega could prove to be a boon for the fourth-year driver as he has back-to-back top fives there --the only driver to do so in that stretch. 

His 8.3 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks is third-best this season and that bodes well with three of the next five races on that track length.


Weaknesses: It was long thought road courses were something of a strength for Byron -- not to the level of Chase Elliott, but a place where he would have some advantage over most. That has not been the case in 2021 as his average finish of 25.2 on those tracks is the worst among the playoff field. It's been a tale of two seasons so far for Byron as he has just three top 10s in his last 11 starts after 14 top 10s in his firsts 18 starts. Byron's No. 24 pit crew ranks outside the top 10 based on average four tire stop times and that could loom larger the deeper he goes in the playoffs.

9. Joey Logano, 3,013 points, 1 win


No. 22 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2017.

Favorable track: Las Vegas ... with two wins and an average finish of 8.4 in 16 starts.

Joey Logano, continued


Strengths: Logano has the second-best average finish (6.2) in oval races with the 750-horsepower package, which bodes well for the final two races (if he remains in playoff contention). The Round of 12 also sets up well for Logano as Las Vegas is his best playoff track with more than three starts, he has three wins at Talladega and he has never finished outside the top 10 at the Charlotte Roval. 




Weaknesses: His 17.0 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks may not play a big role until the Round of 8, but the 22 camp's struggles with the 550-horsepower package will need to be solved by that round. Vegas is the only 1.5-mile track in the first two rounds, and Logano's only top 10 on that track type this season came there in the spring. But the body of work on that track type suggests there is plenty to be worried about should he reach the Round of 8, but hey, he did win at Kansas last year to lock into the Championship 4 after struggling on intermediates.

10. Brad Keselowski, 3,008 points, 1 win


No. 2 Team Penske Ford

Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2017, 2020; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2014, 2015; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2018, 2019.

Favorable track: Las Vegas ... with three wins and an average finish of 10.8 in 16 starts.

Brad Keselowski, continued


Strengths: The Round of 12 sees his best playoff track by average finish (Las Vegas) and the track where he has won the most (Talladega) as part of the mix. With his up-and-down stats on 1.5-milers, Martinsville in the Round of 8 looms large for him -- he has two wins there and an 11.2 average finish. He has won a playoff race in three of the last four seasons. 




Weaknesses: Keselowski is in a lame-duck finish to his Penske tenure before he heads for a driver-owner role at Roush Fenway Racing. Both are in the Ford camp, but how freely will that information be flowing? His up-and-down season has been a real mystery with some struggles at tracks where he's typically run well. The No. 2 pit crew does not rank in the top 10 among average four-tire pit stops, per Racing Insights.

11. Christopher Bell, 3,005 points, 1 win


No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

Elimination history: First playoff appearance in the Cup Series; Did not make playoffs in 2019.

Favorable track: Texas ... with one top five and an average finish of 12.0 in two starts.

Christopher Bell, continued


Strengths: Bell has been a sneaky good driver this season with the 750-horsepower package as he has six of 11 top 10s with it. It's also important to note of the two remaining 750-horsepower tracks that are both in the regular season and playoffs, he had top 10s at both of them this season. Bell and new crew chief Adam Stevens struck early for a win two races into the season, but it has been over the summer where the team has found its footing. 




Weaknesses: Bell's body of work on the 1.5-mile tracks could use some improvement as he has just the 17th-best average finish on that track type -- the worst among remaining playoff drivers on that track length. Talladega is his worst track on the circuit with no finish better than 17th in three starts. While Bell has gone through this elimination format in other national series, the Cup playoffs are a much different animal, and he won't have the buffer of playoff points built up to help cover for an early mistake/bad performance. The No. 20 pit crew ranks outside the top 10 in average four-tire pit-stop time, per Racing Insights.

12. Kevin Harvick, 3,002 points, 0 wins


No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2020.

Favorable track: Phoenix ... with nine wins and an average finish of 8.8 in 37 starts.

Kevin Harvick, continued


Strengths: Harvick had the fourth-best average finish in the Round of 16 (all 750-horsepower tracks) and his Bristol showing as well as subsequent confrontation with reigning champion Chase Elliott showed the 2014 champ will not be going quietly. Despite not leading any laps on 1.5-mile tracks this season, Harvick does have the sixth-best average finish (9.7) on tracks of that length. His 19 top 10s on the season are third most among the playoff field. He has a knack for rising to the occasion when his back is against the wall (see: Phoenix win in 2014, Dover in 2015). 
His pit crew has helped his cause routinely this season as it has the second-best average four-tire stop time (13.735 seconds), per Racing Insights. 




Weaknesses: Harvick's 200 laps led (with none on 1.5-mile tracks) and his eight top fives are on pace to be his lowest marks in those statistical categories since 2013. The 1.5-mile tracks have long been a stronghold for Harvick since joining SHR, but one top five in the six races on that track length is an indicator this is far from a Harvick year we’ve become used to seeing. Without any wins or stage wins this season, he carries minimal playoff points and is on the chopping block right away with no margin for error. He has been feast or famine on road courses with two top 10s and three finishes outside the top 20 this year.

Aric Almirola, 1 win

No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford

Eliminated in Round of 16

Tyler Reddick

No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

Eliminated in Round of 16

Kurt Busch, 1 win

No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet

Eliminated in Round of 16

Michael McDowell, 1 win

No. 34 Front Row Motorsports

Eliminated in Round of 16