Assessing Cup playoff bubble ahead of final month of regular season

Just one month remains in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, but there's still plenty to be decided as multiple big-name drivers still seek win No. 1 in 2024. 

With a pause in the action, let's assess where drivers near the bubble stand entering the final four races before the playoffs and potential wild-card winners at each of the final four tracks that could stun the postseason picture. 

MARTIN TRUEX JR. 

POINTS ABOVE ELIMINATION LINE: 108

TRACK THAT MOST BENEFITS HIM: Richmond 

TRACK THAT LEASTS BENEFITS HIM: Daytona

In his final full-time Cup season, it's difficult to see Truex not finding Victory Lane at all. Despite a comfortable cushion to the elimination line, Truex has demons to exorcise at upcoming tracks like Richmond, Michigan and Daytona. 

Earlier this season, Truex led over 200 laps at Richmond and came up short to Denny Hamlin after an overtime restart that left Truex heated during the cool-down lap. 

Truex was on the short end of a thrilling late-race battle with Chris Buescher at Michigan last season and is still looking for his maiden triumph in the Irish Hills, and of course, there's Truex's widely-known winless streak at superspeedways. 

TY GIBBS

POINTS ABOVE ELIMINATION LINE: 42

TRACK THAT MOST BENEFITS HIM: Darlington 

TRACK THAT LEASTS BENEFITS HIM: Michigan

It wasn't too long ago where it seemed Gibbs would be an outside threat to make the Championship 4 in just his sophomore Cup campaign. However, the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing team has stumbled this summer with just two top 10s between the Coke 600 and Brickyard 400. 

Gibbs has run well at Michigan in his first two tries but the bigger issue is those around him, and especially Buescher, are all capable of winning at the two-mile oval. 

After finishing second in the spring Darlington race, it wouldn't be a shock if Gibbs won his way into the playoffs in the regular-season finale. 

CHRIS BUESCHER 

POINTS ABOVE ELIMINATION LINE: 17

TRACK THAT MOST BENEFITS HIM: All of them 

TRACK THAT LEASTS BENEFITS HIM: If you had to pick one, Daytona. 

You could argue Buescher's four best tracks are the final four of the regular season. Last year, Buescher was the hottest driver entering the playoffs with victories at Richmond, Michigan and Daytona. With the speed the No. 17 RFK Ford has shown for most of 2024, Buescher could pull off a stretch similar to last year and the Southern 500 will be circled on his calendar after the heartbreak and frustration at Darlington in the spring. 

Daytona appears as least beneficial for Buescher due to the potential wild-card winner it could produce. 

ROSS CHASTAIN

POINTS ABOVE ELIMINATION LINE: 7

TRACK THAT MOST BENEFITS HIM: Darlington 

TRACK THAT LEASTS BENEFITS HIM: Richmond

Of those still capable of making the playoffs on points, Chastain may be the odd man out of the group of five with the lack of results and overall speed from the Trackhouse Racing camp.

With four consecutive finishes outside the top 10, no one needed this break more than Chastain and co. to regroup and figure out how to find race-winning speed in August. It's likely Chastain falls out of the top 16 after Richmond but Michigan and the Southern 500 will be Chastain's best shots of staying afloat... and we've seen the No. 1 pull off some Hail Mary's before. 

BUBBA WALLACE

POINTS BELOW ELIMINATION LINE: 7

TRACK THAT MOST BENEFITS HIM: Daytona 

TRACK THAT LEASTS BENEFITS HIM: Darlington

The post-Chicago penalty offered Wallace a reset and since then, he's collected two top 10s and has cut his playoff deficit to single digits. Wallace has the momentum over the rest of those on the bubble. 

It's highly possible that Bubba finishes well at all four of the remaining tracks and makes the top 16 on points but he'll likely want to secure a victory before the Southern 500, which will be more physically and mentally grueling than ever if he's points racing. 

RICHMOND WILD CARD: Josh Berry

Little by little, Berry has snuck into race-winning contention. After seventh and third-place results at Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, Berry is going to be a true player for a Richmond win. He finished 11th at the Virginia short track in the spring and was runner-up in the previous year's spring event behind the wheel of the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9.

MICHIGAN WILD CARD: Kyle Busch

Yes, Busch has wrecked out of the last two races in the Irish Hills but that came after nine consecutive top 10s at the track. Busch has started inside the top 10 in the last three Michigan races and if luck were to finally fall on the right side for the two-time Cup champ this season, Michigan would be the pick. 

DAYTONA WILD CARD: Todd Gilliland

If anyone was worthy of "stealing" one of the 16 postseason bids, Gilliland's name is probably at the top of that list. His third Cup season has been nothing short of impressive with top 10s at Chicago and Indianapolis and top-20 finishes in 10 of the last 11 events. 

The results didn't show at Daytona and Atlanta to kickoff 2024 but Gilliland led 74 combined laps at the drafting tracks and is due for his big premier series breakthrough; no better place than at the "World Center of Racing." 

DARLINGTON WILD CARD: Chase Briscoe

Compared to last year, 2024 has been a massive improvement for Briscoe, and it's important for the fourth-year veteran to keep it up as he will take over the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in 2025. 

Briscoe surprised at Darlington in the spring with a top-five result and the Stewart-Haas Racing Fords will likely be fast again in the 500-mile slugfest to set the playoff battle.