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Breaking down the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 12 Playoffs field
By RJ Kraft | Published: September 24, 2020 13
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The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs moves to the Round of 12 where drivers will take aim at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. This is a round that many drivers have referred to as a wild card with the unpredictability of the high banks of Alabama and the twist and turns of a road course combined with an oval that have thrown the playoff picture upside down in past years. Before the start of the round, NASCAR.com's RJ Kraft examines what opportunities or potential pit falls could befall drivers in this round.
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1. Kevin Harvick, 3,067 points, 9 wins
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016.
Playoff results to date: 1st at Darlington, 7th at Richmond and 1st at Bristol.
Outlook: Harvick has such a points buffer on the bulk of the field that as long as he makes it through Vegas unscathed – a track he has two wins at – he should be fine for the Round of 8. His points advantage will make navigating the wild cards of Talladega and the Charlotte Roval a little easier for the 2014 champion. Simply put, it will be stunning if he doesn't make it to the Round of 8.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016.
Playoff results to date: 1st at Darlington, 7th at Richmond and 1st at Bristol.
Outlook: Harvick has such a points buffer on the bulk of the field that as long as he makes it through Vegas unscathed – a track he has two wins at – he should be fine for the Round of 8. His points advantage will make navigating the wild cards of Talladega and the Charlotte Roval a little easier for the 2014 champion. Simply put, it will be stunning if he doesn't make it to the Round of 8.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2. Denny Hamlin, 3,048 points, 6 wins
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.
Playoff results to date: 13th at Darlington, 12th at Richmond and 21st at Bristol.
Outlook: Hamlin stubbed his toe quite a bit in the Round of 16 with pit-road woes and an incident with teammate Martin Truex Jr. at Bristol. While he has yet to win at Las Vegas and his Charlotte Roval stats aren't great, his recent success on superspeedways stands out. He has four straight top-four finishes at the track type, with two of those coming at Talladega. His points buffer gives him some margin for error but not nearly as much as Kevin Harvick.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.
Playoff results to date: 13th at Darlington, 12th at Richmond and 21st at Bristol.
Outlook: Hamlin stubbed his toe quite a bit in the Round of 16 with pit-road woes and an incident with teammate Martin Truex Jr. at Bristol. While he has yet to win at Las Vegas and his Charlotte Roval stats aren't great, his recent success on superspeedways stands out. He has four straight top-four finishes at the track type, with two of those coming at Talladega. His points buffer gives him some margin for error but not nearly as much as Kevin Harvick.
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3. Brad Keselowski, 3,035 points, 4 wins
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2017; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2014, 2015; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2018, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 11th at Darlington, 1st at Richmond and 34th at Bristol.
Outlook: Keselowski has eight wins at tracks in this round (three at Las Vegas and five at Talladega). He has not finished outside the top seven at Las Vegas in the last 10 races there, and he has not finished outside the top 10 in any 1.5-mile race this year (while scoring the fifth-most points on that track type). His recent ‘Dega numbers aren't as strong, but Penske's power there is well documented.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2017; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2014, 2015; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2018, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 11th at Darlington, 1st at Richmond and 34th at Bristol.
Outlook: Keselowski has eight wins at tracks in this round (three at Las Vegas and five at Talladega). He has not finished outside the top seven at Las Vegas in the last 10 races there, and he has not finished outside the top 10 in any 1.5-mile race this year (while scoring the fifth-most points on that track type). His recent ‘Dega numbers aren't as strong, but Penske's power there is well documented.
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4. Joey Logano, 3,022 points, 2 wins
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2017.
Playoff results to date: 3rd at Darlington, 3rd at Richmond and 11th at Bristol.
Outlook: Logano continues to lurk under the radar as a contender – probably because he hasn't won since Phoenix in March – but he will very much be a factor. His lowest point total in the last 10 races? 29. He has the second-most stage points in 2020. Las Vegas is his best track with an 8.0 average finish for his career and two wins in his last three races there. He also has three wins at Talladega and a knack for finding the front there.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2017.
Playoff results to date: 3rd at Darlington, 3rd at Richmond and 11th at Bristol.
Outlook: Logano continues to lurk under the radar as a contender – probably because he hasn't won since Phoenix in March – but he will very much be a factor. His lowest point total in the last 10 races? 29. He has the second-most stage points in 2020. Las Vegas is his best track with an 8.0 average finish for his career and two wins in his last three races there. He also has three wins at Talladega and a knack for finding the front there.
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5. Chase Elliott, 3,021 points, 2 wins
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.
Playoff results to date: 20th at Darlington, 5th at Richmond and 7th at Bristol.
Outlook: Similar to Joey Logano, Elliott is lurking in the championship chase. His road-course success with four wins in his last six road starts, including a victory at the 2019 Charlotte Roval, set him up well for success at a track where others may struggle. Elliott won at Talladega in the spring of 2019. The potential trip-up for Elliott is Las Vegas, where he won two stages in February before late-race trouble, has three top 10s but also four finishes outside the top 25 in seven starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.
Playoff results to date: 20th at Darlington, 5th at Richmond and 7th at Bristol.
Outlook: Similar to Joey Logano, Elliott is lurking in the championship chase. His road-course success with four wins in his last six road starts, including a victory at the 2019 Charlotte Roval, set him up well for success at a track where others may struggle. Elliott won at Talladega in the spring of 2019. The potential trip-up for Elliott is Las Vegas, where he won two stages in February before late-race trouble, has three top 10s but also four finishes outside the top 25 in seven starts.
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6. Martin Truex Jr., 3,016 points, 1 win
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championship in 2017; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Did not make playoffs in 2014.
Playoff results to date: 22nd at Darlington, 2nd at Richmond and 24th at Bristol.
Outlook: Despite some Round of 16 misfortune, Truex still has nine top-four finishes in his last 11 starts. Talladega is one of his three worst tracks, so it's hard to expect much from him there. His road-course success with three wins in his last eight starts at that track type sets him up well for the Charlotte Roval. He has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and two wins in his last six races at Las Vegas, so the ingredients are there for a fast start to the Round of 12.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championship in 2017; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Did not make playoffs in 2014.
Playoff results to date: 22nd at Darlington, 2nd at Richmond and 24th at Bristol.
Outlook: Despite some Round of 16 misfortune, Truex still has nine top-four finishes in his last 11 starts. Talladega is one of his three worst tracks, so it's hard to expect much from him there. His road-course success with three wins in his last eight starts at that track type sets him up well for the Charlotte Roval. He has the third-most points on 1.5-mile tracks in 2020 and two wins in his last six races at Las Vegas, so the ingredients are there for a fast start to the Round of 12.
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7. Alex Bowman, 3,009 points, 1 win
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015.
Playoff results to date: 6th at Darlington, 9th at Richmond and 16th at Bristol.
Outlook: Say hello to the sleeper pick to move through this round. Bowman was one of the top cars at Las Vegas in February and has the seventh-most points there among the field in the last three races. He also has the third-most points at Talladega over the last three races there. At the Charlotte Roval, he is one of two drivers to score top fives in both runs at that venue. The inconsistencies that plagued his summer runs seem to be gone.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015.
Playoff results to date: 6th at Darlington, 9th at Richmond and 16th at Bristol.
Outlook: Say hello to the sleeper pick to move through this round. Bowman was one of the top cars at Las Vegas in February and has the seventh-most points there among the field in the last three races. He also has the third-most points at Talladega over the last three races there. At the Charlotte Roval, he is one of two drivers to score top fives in both runs at that venue. The inconsistencies that plagued his summer runs seem to be gone.
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8. Austin Dillon, 3,005 points, 1 win
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2017, 2018; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 2nd at Darlington, 4th at Richmond and 12th at Bristol.
Outlook: Dillon was the story of the Round of 16 as he made good on his vow to bust some brackets. He finished fourth at Las Vegas in February and has the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks – more than fellow playoff drivers Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer. A good start at Vegas is imperative for AD given his woes at Talladega and road courses. He has crashed out of four of the last seven at Talladega and has no top 10s in 14 road-course starts.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2017, 2018; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 2nd at Darlington, 4th at Richmond and 12th at Bristol.
Outlook: Dillon was the story of the Round of 16 as he made good on his vow to bust some brackets. He finished fourth at Las Vegas in February and has the 10th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks – more than fellow playoff drivers Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer. A good start at Vegas is imperative for AD given his woes at Talladega and road courses. He has crashed out of four of the last seven at Talladega and has no top 10s in 14 road-course starts.
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9. Aric Almirola, 3,005 points
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2015, 2016, 2017.
Playoff results to date: 9th at Darlington, 8th at Richmond and 5th at Bristol.
Outlook: Almirola was one of four drivers to score top 10s in all three Round of 16 races. He'll need to continue that pattern if he wants to advance on. His three Las Vegas top 10s have all come with SHR (in five starts there). He has not finished outside the top 10 at Talladega in eight starts and has a playoff win there from 2018. The concern lies in the Charlotte Roval as he has a 16.5 average finish there and has just two top 10s in 20 road-course starts at the Cup level.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2015, 2016, 2017.
Playoff results to date: 9th at Darlington, 8th at Richmond and 5th at Bristol.
Outlook: Almirola was one of four drivers to score top 10s in all three Round of 16 races. He'll need to continue that pattern if he wants to advance on. His three Las Vegas top 10s have all come with SHR (in five starts there). He has not finished outside the top 10 at Talladega in eight starts and has a playoff win there from 2018. The concern lies in the Charlotte Roval as he has a 16.5 average finish there and has just two top 10s in 20 road-course starts at the Cup level.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Kyle Busch, 3,004 points
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championships in 2015, 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014.
Playoff results to date: 7th at Darlington, 6th at Richmond and 2nd at Bristol.
Outlook: The reigning champ moved closer to tasting the Victory Lane rainbow in the Round of 16 but will have his work cut out for him in the Round of 12. Busch himself said after Bristol "we'll be eliminated" in this round. His results at Las Vegas and Talladega are mixed bags. While his road-course resume is solid, he has not finished inside the top 30 at the Charlotte Roval. If Busch can survive and advance, would you really be surprised if he doesn't reach the Championship 4? We wouldn't.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championships in 2015, 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014.
Playoff results to date: 7th at Darlington, 6th at Richmond and 2nd at Bristol.
Outlook: The reigning champ moved closer to tasting the Victory Lane rainbow in the Round of 16 but will have his work cut out for him in the Round of 12. Busch himself said after Bristol "we'll be eliminated" in this round. His results at Las Vegas and Talladega are mixed bags. While his road-course resume is solid, he has not finished inside the top 30 at the Charlotte Roval. If Busch can survive and advance, would you really be surprised if he doesn't reach the Championship 4? We wouldn't.
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11. Clint Bowyer, 3,004 points
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2015; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2016, 2017.
Playoff results to date: 10th at Darlington, 10th at Richmond and 6th at Bristol.
Outlook: Bowyer was one of four drivers – and three from SHR – to score top 10s in all three Round of 16 races. As for this round, the two wild cards are his opportunity. Bowyer is one of two drivers to notch top fives in both Charlotte Roval races, and he is not afraid to go for the strong points day via strategy to advance at that track type. He has two wins at Talladega but more recently has five finishes outside the top 20 in his last six starts there. Las Vegas has been one of his worst tracks, and he has the lowest point total on 1.5-milers this year among all playoff drivers.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2015; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2016, 2017.
Playoff results to date: 10th at Darlington, 10th at Richmond and 6th at Bristol.
Outlook: Bowyer was one of four drivers – and three from SHR – to score top 10s in all three Round of 16 races. As for this round, the two wild cards are his opportunity. Bowyer is one of two drivers to notch top fives in both Charlotte Roval races, and he is not afraid to go for the strong points day via strategy to advance at that track type. He has two wins at Talladega but more recently has five finishes outside the top 20 in his last six starts there. Las Vegas has been one of his worst tracks, and he has the lowest point total on 1.5-milers this year among all playoff drivers.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12. Kurt Busch, 3,001 points
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2016, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2017, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 8th at Darlington, 13th at Richmond and 15th at Bristol.
Outlook: The 2004 champion's top 10 at Darlington is his only top 10 in the last seven races of 2020. He is going to need to correct that to advance. Like Clint Bowyer, the two wild cards are his opportunities. While he has not won at Talladega, he does have top 10s in seven of his last 10 starts there. He has long been a solid road racer and has a top five at the Charlotte Roval. His home track of Las Vegas is the tricky one – it is statistically his worse on average finish (22.5). He must avoid trouble there.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2016, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2017, 2019.
Playoff results to date: 8th at Darlington, 13th at Richmond and 15th at Bristol.
Outlook: The 2004 champion's top 10 at Darlington is his only top 10 in the last seven races of 2020. He is going to need to correct that to advance. Like Clint Bowyer, the two wild cards are his opportunities. While he has not won at Talladega, he does have top 10s in seven of his last 10 starts there. He has long been a solid road racer and has a top five at the Charlotte Roval. His home track of Las Vegas is the tricky one – it is statistically his worse on average finish (22.5). He must avoid trouble there.