Bubble Watch: Claim your Championship 4 chip at Las Vegas

Could this be the most competitive Round of 8 in the Cup Series Playoffs era? Between the remaining drivers vying for the 2024 crown, four have won the Bill France Trophy and all have made the Championship 4 except for Tyler Reddick. 

Sunday's round opener at Las Vegas (2:30 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) will be a dogfight among the group to go for the checkered flag to punch their ticket to Phoenix. See who's trending upward and downward entering the semifinal round. 

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Ranking the Round of 8 competitors 

Kyle Larson

Points above elimination line: 33

Chances of advancing to next round: 91.48%

Trending: Hot

Las Vegas outlook -- Scorching Hot: Going all the way back to his early days in the Cup Series, Larson has been a top-10 threat at the desert track. Since joining Hendrick in 2021, he's upped that ten-fold with three wins in just seven starts in the No. 5. Outside of the wreck in 2022 with Bubba Wallace, Larson has either finished 10th (once), second (twice) or won in the seven-race stretch. 

Christopher Bell

Points above elimination line: 13

Chances of advancing to next round: 81.37%

Trending: Hot

Las Vegas outlook -- Hit or Miss: This weekend cannot be a miss for the No. 20 camp. After some mechanical issues hampered Bell in the spring, they'll need a performance similar to that of the last playoff race at Vegas where the No. 20 driver likely would've needed just one more lap to get around Larson for the win. Good news for Bell is that he's won one race in his last two appearances in the Round 8 to clinch a Championship 4 berth. 

Tyler Reddick

Points above elimination line: 10

Chances of advancing to next round: 35.84%

Trending: Cold

Las Vegas outlook -- Warming Up: Reddick had to use another lifeline with a surgical final stage at the Roval to point his way into the Round of 8. The regular-season champ has had a miserable playoff campaign but the semifinal round may be the No. 45 driver's chance to re-insert his name as the favorite for the title. He finished second in the spring at Las Vegas and has five top 10s in the last six starts at the Nevada track. 

William Byron

Points above elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 57.16%

Trending: Warming Up

Las Vegas outlook -- Warm: Byron has seemed to defrost from his paradoxical summer freeze after a scorching run in the Round of 12. The No. 24 driver finished second at Kansas and completed the round with back-to-back third-place results at Talladega and the Roval. Vegas has also been good for Byron, who has three consecutive top 10s at the oval and won the spring 2023 event. 

Ryan Blaney

Points below elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 34.22%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Las Vegas outlook -- Warming Up: The defending champ advanced to the Round of 8 with relative ease but he's far from out of the woods and there are more concerns with Blaney's recent performances. The No. 12 has DNF'd in four of the last eight events and can't afford to do so in the Round of 8. The silver lining? The races Blaney has finished in that stretch have all been inside the top 10 and he enters Vegas with top 10s in the last two events at the track. 

Denny Hamlin

Points below elimination line: 8

Chances of advancing to next round: 47.00%

Trending: Cooling Off

Las Vegas outlook -- Warm: Hamlin finds himself in familiar territory as he's halfway home to finally scoring that elusive championship. A mechanical failure at Homestead ultimately ended the No. 11's run last year but Vegas has been kind to Hamlin has he's finished inside the top 10 in six of the last eight events. 

Chase Elliott 

Points below elimination line: 9

Chances of advancing to next round: 31.76%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Las Vegas outlook -- Cold: Elliott is the outlier of this Round of 8 where he's yet to have solid footing at Vegas in his career. He enters Sunday with three finishes of 12th or worse in Nevada and needs to find the speed to turn it around as it'll be hard to catch the pack starting the semifinal round beneath the elimination line. 

Joey Logano

Points below elimination line: 11

Chances of advancing to next round: 22.17%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Las Vegas outlook -- Hit or Miss: Destiny is manifesting once again for the even-year enigma as Logano made the Round of 8 after Alex Bowman's DQ at the Roval. Logano won the 2022 playoff race at Vegas that culminated in him winning his second series title three weeks later at Phoenix. Can he do it again?