Bubble Watch: Does the 2025 Cup Series title run through Joe Gibbs Racing?

Joey Logano nearly pulled off a gamble late at Las Vegas to once again punch his Championship 4 ticket, but it was Denny Hamlin taking the chip last weekend to win No. 60 and secure his first Champ 4 appearance since 2021. Now, Talladega Superspeedway looms in its first Round of 8 appearance and chaos is bound to unfold Sunday afternoon (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race at Talladega, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Power Rankings entering Talladega

Safely above the elimination line

1. Denny Hamlin (ADV)

Kyle Larson

Points above cutline: 35

Chances of advancing to next round: 83.2%

Trending: Hot

Talladega outlook -- Hot: An average finish of 9.6 on superspeedways leads all Cup drivers this season and is owned by Larson. No, you aren't reading that wrong. The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver is getting the hang of pack racing and has posted top fives in the last two trips to the Alabama superspeedway. 

Christopher Bell

Points above cutline: 20

Chances of advancing to next round: 72.8%

Trending: Hot

Talladega outlook -- Hit or Miss: Last season, Bell tallied eight top 10s in the 10-race playoffs. He's marching well toward reaching that mark again, but a win in the next two races would certainly be the bar to get the No. 20 back in the Championship 4. Bell has three consecutive third-place results but has varying success at Talladega with just three top 10s in 11 starts and DNFs in two of the last three. 

Chase Briscoe

Points above cutline: 15

Chances of advancing to next round: 54.2%

Trending: Warm

Talladega outlook -- Cold: No. 19 crew chief James Small gambled late with a two-tire stop at Vegas that ultimately worked out for a clutch top five to build a gap at the cutline. Talladega will present a big challenge for Briscoe, who owns just two top 10s in nine 'Dega starts. 

William Byron

Points below cutline: 15

Chances of advancing to next round: 26.5%

Trending: Going Cold

Talladega outlook -- Hot: Byron had one of the biggest playoff misfortunes in recent memory after slamming into Ty Dillon while running second as the Kaulig Racing driver tried coming down pit road during the final stage. The regular-season champ now sits below the cutline, but Talladega has been great to the No. 24 team the last few years as Byron has finished no worse than seventh at the 2.66-mile facility since the spring of 2023. 

Chase Elliott 

Points below cutline: 23

Chances of advancing to next round: 25.1%

Trending: Cooling Off

Talladega outlook -- Hit or Miss: The playoff mustache suffered its first mulligan as an untimely, uncontrolled tire penalty stymied Elliott to an 18th-place result at Las Vegas. The Dawsonville, Georgia native is a two-time winner at Talladega, but recent success has come and gone as he top 10s in two of the last four races at the track, with the other two being 15th- and 29th-place runs.  

Joey Logano

Points below cutline: 24

Chances of advancing to next round: 15.8%

Trending: Warming Up

Talladega outlook -- Ice Cold (but leads laps): Taking two tires in the closing laps to finish sixth at Vegas was much-needed for the No. 22 team to avoid a virtual must-win situation over the next two weeks. Logano has led 117 laps in the Gen 7 era at Talladega, so he should be a favorite, right? Wrong. His best finish in the Gen 7 era? 19th in the spring of 2024. 

Ryan Blaney

Points below cutline: 31

Chances of advancing to next round: 22.4%

Trending: Ice Cold

Talladega outlook -- Ice Cold: Concerning similarities between Blaney's last three races this season and his last three races at Talladega. Since his New Hampshire win, Blaney's best finish was 13th at the Charlotte Roval. His best finish since his 2023 playoff win at the superspeedway? 20th. He's also crashed out in the last two Talladega races.