Bubble Watch: Kansas will set the tone for driver championship aspirations

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs continue to pick up steam as a wild opening round set the tone for what will be a thrilling Round of 12 beginning at Kansas Speedway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in the Sunflower State, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Ranking the Round of 12 drivers

Safely above the elimination line

1. Kyle Larson (plus-39)

2. Christopher Bell (plus-24)

3. Tyler Reddick (plus-20)

4. William Byron (plus-14)

Ryan Blaney

Points above elimination line: 11

Chances of advancing to next round: 83.70%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Cold: Since his victory at Pocono, Blaney has been streaky at best with just three top 10s in the last eight races. He's also on a stretch of three DNFs in the last five races. The defending champ will need to quickly correct the misfortunes at Kansas, where he has finished outside the top 10 in the last three events. 

Denny Hamlin

Points above elimination line: 7

Chances of advancing to next round: 69.29%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Hot: A top-five outing at Bristol put Hamlin into the Round of 12 and now it's time for the No. 11 Toyota team to put the pedal to the metal this weekend at one of Hamlin's best tracks. He's finished inside the top five in every Kansas race dating back to the fall of 2021 (six in a row). 

Chase Elliott 

Points above elimination line: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 75.20%

Trending: Warming Up

Kansas outlook -- Warm: Elliott managed his points well across the first three races of the postseason and really turned it on at Bristol with his best finish since winning at Texas in the spring. With how consistent Elliott has been in 2024, he's due for another victory and will be among the favorites on Sunday and at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. 

Joey Logano

Points above elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 51.56%

Trending: Win or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Going Cold: After winning at Atlanta, it looked like the even-year enigma would take over this postseason campaign. Still, Logano struggled at Watkins Glen and was in an incident at Bristol that parachuted him to a finish in 28th, four laps down. Kansas will be a key sign of where Logano stands among the title heavyweights. He finished 34th at the track in the spring. 

Austin Cindric

Points below elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 40.84%

Trending: Warm

Kansas outlook -- Ice Cold: Cindric advanced to the Round of 12 for the second time in three years. He will have to be in ultimate points-management mode on Sunday to avoid being in too far of a hole heading to Talladega, as he's finished 31st or worse in his last three Kansas outings, crashing in the spring race.

Daniel Suárez

Points below elimination line: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 34.09%

Trending: Going Cold

Kansas outlook -- Cold: Despite having no speed at Bristol, Suárez performances at Atlanta and Watkins Glen saw him edge the ill-fated Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. after each suffered speeding penalties during the final stage. Now back to square one to begin the Round of 12, the No. 99 team will need its first top 10 at Kansas since 2022 on Sunday to stay within striking distance of the elimination line. 

Alex Bowman

Points below elimination line: 7

Chances of advancing to next round: 48.99%

Trending: Warm

Kansas outlook -- Warm: Entering the postseason with the biggest chip on his shoulders, Bowman delivered and then some in the opening round with top 10s at Atlanta and Bristol, including a pole award last weekend. Beginning this weekend where Bowman owns top 10s in four consecutive Kansas events, the Arizona native can shine as he's been great at Talladega and the Roval as well. 

Chase Briscoe

Points below elimination line: 7

Chances of advancing to next round: 32.83%

Trending: Warm

Kansas outlook -- Cold: Fool us twice -- shame on us. 2022 taught us not to underestimate Briscoe's talents and he once again showed just how good he is in another staple race at Bristol to cement his place in the Round of 12. Kansas is not Briscoe's best track, with just a career-best result of 13th, but that came in a 2022 playoff race. Oh, and the No. 14 Ford driver made the Round of 8 that year.