Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Lurking Logano should worry un-clinched drivers at Martinsville

Joey Logano was one of the hottest drivers in the playoffs until the engine expired in his No. 22 Ford in the Texas heat two races back. A top-10 rebound at Kansas rekindled some momentum, but Logano still enters the Round of 8 elimination race on the bottom of the pile, essentially needing a win to advance — which could spell trouble for the other six drivers looking to claim their Phoenix spot. If the Championship 4 started today, these upcoming drivers would be the first four out and the last four in. Sunday's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could shake things up even further. Take a look at who's on the bubble.

Joey Logano: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below fourth: 26
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — over the last 25 races, Logano essentially has a 50/50 shot to land in the top 10, with 12 such finishes and 13 of 11th or worse. Three of his last four were top 10s, however, and the one that wasn't was because of an engine failure (i.e. not his fault).
Martinsville outlook: Hot - the other six drivers not locked in should be worried that Logano is in desperation mode at "The Paperclip," because he's one of the best there. He memorably won a grandfather clock (the battle) en route to his 2018 title (the war) and owns four straight top-eight finishes. He'll most certainly have an impact on Sunday's race.

Brad Keselowski: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below fourth: 6
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — over the last three races, Keselowski has one top five and two finishes of 17th or worse, with 13 finishes of 11th or worse in the last 23.
Martinsville outlook: Hot — being good at Martinsville runs in the Penske pipeline, as Keselowski, like Logano, has been top notch at the Virginia track. The 2012 champ has nine top fives and two wins in the last 11 races there.

Martin Truex Jr.: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below fourth: 3
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Kansas snapped a three-race streak of finishes of 12th or worse, but overall he has six top 10s in the last 11 races.
Martinsville outlook: Hot — this race is so compelling because all the drivers below the elimination line are quality at Martinsville, Truex the strongest among them. He's the odds-on favorite to win the race, which would make it four trips to Victory Lane in the most recent five races at "The Paperclip."

Ryan Blaney: FIRST FOUR OUT

Points below fourth: 1
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Blaney has won two of the last 10 races ... but they were each before the playoffs started. He has two top 10s and two finishes of 15th or worse the last four races, with one DNF.
Martinsville outlook: Warm — Blaney has been knocking on the door at Martinsville, notching a pair of runner-up finishes last year amid a streak there that has seen him pick up four top fives in the last five races. He could point his way in, but a win — given the speed we've seen out of the 12 car lately — could happen, too.

Kyle Busch: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above fifth: 1
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Busch's playoffs have been a wild ride full of highs and lows, with five top 10s and five finishes of 21st or worse in the last 10 races overall, and yet he's still on the right side of the bubble.
Martinsville outlook: Warm — it's been about half a decade since Busch's two Martinsville wins, but he's certainly no slouch there overall. The No. 18 JGR driver has nine top fives in the last 20 'Paperclip' races, scoring stage points in 14 of the 18 stages run at the track.

Denny Hamlin: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above fifth: 32
Full standings
Trending: Warm — Hamlin hasn't looked quite as dominant as he did in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but certainly still championship-capable. His 11th-place run at Texas was his only non-top 10 in the postseason.
Martinsville outlook: Hit or miss recently — the five-time winner at the track obviously knows how to get it done there, but it's important to note that all of his wins were 2015 or earlier, and two of his last three Martinsville finishes were outside the top 10. That said, he does have four top fives in the last six.

Chase Elliott: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above fifth: 34
Full standings
Trending: Warm — Elliott has three top 10s and two finishes of 12th or worse the last five, but he has two finishes of seventh or better in the Round of 8, clearly building momentum.
Martinsville outlook: Hot — it's only likely to continue, as the defending series champ is the defending winner of this race, as well. Elliott has three straight top fives at Martinsville and six top 10s in the last seven races there. He'll be tough.

Kyle Larson: FIRST FOUR IN

Points above fifth: CLINCHED WITH WIN (Texas; also won Kansas)
Full standings
Trending: Red hot — Larson looks straight-up unstoppable right now. Winner of three consecutive, he has 11 top 10s in the last 13 races — five of which were victories.
Martinsville outlook: Warming up — "The Paperclip" is a nice heat check for the 5 team, because it's historically one of Larson's lesser tracks. His last two starts there did net top 10s, but the six prior he didn't finish better than 14th once. He's scored stage points in only three of the 18 stages there.