Bubble Watch: No margin for error in Talladega playoff race

More questions than answers remain after the Cup Series Round of 12 opener at Kansas Speedway last weekend. With a nerve-wracking race at Talladega Superspeedway looming Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), take a look at where playoff drivers stand heading to the superspeedway and updated chances on reaching the next round. 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in Alabama with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Playoff driver points earned at drafting tracks in 2024

Safely above the elimination line

1. William Byron (plus-34)

2. Ryan Blaney (plus-28)

3. Christopher Bell (plus-28)

4. Kyle Larson (plus-18)

Denny Hamlin

Points above elimination line: 11

Chances of advancing to next round: 80.36%

Trending: Warming Up

Talladega outlook -- Hit or Miss: What will probably go down as the worst top-10 result in the minds of the No. 11 camp, Kansas was a missed opportunity with a Toyota that was capable of winning and clinching a Round of 8 berth. With a woeful day on pit road, Talladega needs to be another big points day for Hamlin, if not a win. The last five 'Dega races have either produced a top five for the No. 11 or a finish outside the top 15. 

Alex Bowman

Points above elimination line: 8

Chances of advancing to next round: 85.34%

Trending: Warm

Talladega outlook -- Hit or Miss: Bowman's continuing to prove himself during the 2024 playoffs with a solid sixth-place result at Kansas. He'll need more of the same at a track that hasn't been kind to him in 17 starts (22.8 avg. finish). However, Bowman did finish fifth at Talladega in the spring. 

Chase Elliott 

Points above elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 73.35%

Trending: Warm

Talladega outlook -- Better than most: Perhaps more impressive than his two wins at Talladega is that Elliott has completed every lap at the superspeedway dating back to the fall 2020 race. The feat should bode well for Elliott, who needs to extend his gap to the elimination line before the round's closure at the Charlotte Roval. 

Joey Logano

Points above elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 67.24%

Trending: Cold

Talladega outlook -- Ice Cold: While Logano is definitely one of the more assertive drafters in the field, it doesn't always lead to the best results. You have to go back to the fall of 2021 to find Logano's last top 10 at Talladega. In five races since, he's finished 19th or worse. That would likely put him underneath the elimination line before the Roval. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below elimination line: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 66.29%

Trending: Ice Cold

Talladega outlook -- Win or Miss: Tension is rising for the No. 45 Toyota team as the Regular Season Champion has sputtered so far in the playoffs. Being below the elimination line entering Talladega is less than ideal and the only thing lifting Reddick's numbers at the superspeedway is that he won the spring race. 

Daniel Suárez

Points below elimination line: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 21.08%

Trending: Cold

Talladega outlook -- Lukewarm: Suárez finished 26th at Talladega in the spring after getting caught up in the last-lap melee to the checkered flag but had three consecutive top 10s prior at the superspeedway. The No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team will need to be aggressive going for stage points Sunday to maximize their day before the race gets dicey in the closing laps. 

Chase Briscoe

Points below elimination line: 25

Chances of advancing to next round: 11.50%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Talladega outlook -- Better than most: Briscoe's history at the track in seven Cup starts is very interesting. He has an average finish of 14.4, which is third best of active Cup drivers to have made five starts or more at the superspeedway. If he's able to keep the trend up on Sunday, it could decide Briscoe's playoff fate. 

Austin Cindric

Points below elimination line: 29

Chances of advancing to next round: 15.49%

Trending: Going cold

Talladega outlook -- Hit or Miss: Like his Team Penske teammate Logano, Cindric is an aggressive racer at drafting tracks. It worked at Atlanta, as it did for the No. 22 team grabbing the checkered flag, but not at Talladega. Cindric did finish fifth in this race last year and should have a lot of confidence working with both of his title-chasing teammates on Sunday.