Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Playoff twists and turns for Texas

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has entered its next chapter for 2023, opening the Round of 12 this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. Four drivers have been eliminated from championship eligibility, and a distinguished dozen remain alive in the title hunt.

The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, USA, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) will kick off the next three-race knockout phase. With trends and outlooks provided by Racing Insights, see the scenarios for drivers closest to the elimination line, presented by Xfinity.

Chris Buescher

Points above elimination line: 10

Trending -- Mostly warm

Texas outlook -- Cold: Buescher's home-state track hasn't traditionally shown favor to the No. 17 driver. He's still searching for his first top-10 result there, and his 23.3 average finish puts Texas in his bottom five. However, his recent hot streak -- three wins to close the last five regular-season races, plus two top fives in three playoff events so far -- have Buescher primed to reverse some of that irksome history.

Kyle Busch

Points above elimination line: 8

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Hot until 2022: Last year's Texas race yielded a last-place crash-out for Busch, but that registers as only a blip on what's an impressive track record. The Richard Childress Racing veteran is a four-time Texas winner, with 13 top-10 finishes in his last 18 starts there. He's also led 321 laps in his last eight Texas starts -- most among the remaining playoff-eligible drivers.

Christopher Bell

Points above elimination line: 5

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Hit or miss: Bell has been a dynamic qualifier of late, winning the pole position for all three postseason races so far. He's a former Xfinity winner at Texas and has a pair of third-place runs in his four Cup Series starts there. It's a slim five-point cushion above the elimination line for Bell at the start of the Round of 12, but his knack for clutch performances may tilt the playing field to his favor.

Tyler Reddick

Points above elimination line: 3

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Hot: Reddick enters the Round of 12 opener as the defending race winner at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth track, where he led 70 of 334 laps in his last win with Richard Childress Racing. Now with the 23XI Racing outfit, the 27-year-old driver has opened the playoffs strong, posting a runner-up finish and a win in the first three races. That Kansas victory added five playoff points to his total, enough to place him above the elimination line for the Round of 12 points reset.

Ross Chastain

Points below elimination line: 3

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Cold: Chastain placed 13th in his first Texas race with Trackhouse last year, marking his best result there in his career. His playoff efforts this year have been highlighted by a fifth-place result in the Darlington opener, but that's just one of two top-10 finishes in his last 12 races. He'll need more to climb above the elimination line with Texas, Talladega and the Charlotte road course making for a treacherous three-race round.

Brad Keselowski

Points below elimination line: 3

Trending -- Hot

Texas outlook -- Hot: The trends are aligning for Keselowski, who has single-digit finishes in each of his last four Texas races and in his last four races this season. He's still searching for his first Cup Series win in Fort Worth (27 starts) but won the pole for the tour's most recent event last season.

Ryan Blaney

Points below elimination line: 6

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Hot: Blaney will reach a milestone with his 300th Cup Series start this weekend, and Texas has been host to some of his stronger runs. He's notched top-10 finishes in eight of his last nine appearances there, leading 432 laps in 14 starts overall. Blaney's playoff tally so far includes finishes of ninth, 12th and 22nd. Bettering those numbers at Texas would be a boost toward erasing his early Round of 12 deficit.

Bubba Wallace

Points below elimination line: 14

Trending -- Hit or miss

Texas outlook -- Cold: The Lone Star State's intermediate-sized track has been a trouble spot for Wallace, especially of late with three straight finishes of 25th or worse. The 23XI Racing driver did enough to advance last weekend at Bristol, climbing out from a 19-point gap. His best hopes for similar positives in the Round of 12 arrive after Texas, where he is typically a Talladega standout.