Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Title hopes, home-track bragging rights up for grabs at Roval

All it took last Sunday at Talladega was one of the biggest wrecks in Cup Series history to rattle the playoff picture heading to an elimination race. See the fallout from 'Dega and where playoff drivers stand entering the Round of 12 finale at the Charlotte Roval Sunday (2 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) with the latest edition of Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity. 

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Roval schedule | Clinching scenarios for Sunday

Safely above the elimination line

1. William Byron (ADV)

2. Christopher Bell (plus-57)

3. Kyle Larson (plus-52)

4. Denny Hamlin (plus-30)

Alex Bowman

Points above elimination line: 26

Chances of advancing to next round: 97.90%

Trending: Warm

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Hot: Bowman was able to get going after being involved in the late-race pileup at Talladega to salvage a 16th-place result. This weekend, he'll be competing at arguably his best track on the circuit. He owns the best average finish of active Cup drivers at the Roval (6.4) and a healthy gap should give him some freedom to snag that elusive first victory on the road course. 

Ryan Blaney

Points above elimination line: 25

Chances of advancing to next round: 94.20%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Going Cold: After wrecking out at the Stage 2 checkered, Blaney needed the big wreck to happen to not be in an all-too-troublesome spot heading into Sunday. It helps that he's the inaugural winner at the Roval but Blaney's yet to score a top 10 at the road course in the Next Gen car. 

Tyler Reddick

Points above elimination line: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 83.27%

Trending: Ice Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Hot: Similar to Martin Truex Jr. last year, the regular-season champ continues to make his postseason campaign as tough as possible. Reddick has finished 20th or worse in the last four events and a thin 14-point cushion to the elimination line means the No. 45 team needs to have a mistake-free Sunday. Luckily for them, Reddick has three consecutive top 10s at the Roval. 

Chase Elliott 

Points above elimination line: 13

Chances of advancing to next round: 80.28%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: The only multi-time winner at the Roval, look for Elliott to go for win No. 3 at a track he's dominated at in its six-race history. The two times Elliott finished outside the top 10 (2021, 2022), he was spun by his fellow competitors. 

Joey Logano

Points below elimination line: 13

Chances of advancing to next round: 28.07%

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Warm: Despite wrecking late at Talladega, you just can't count Logano out in an even year. He's also strong at the Roval with top 10s in all but one of its six events. Expect Logano to put the pressure on and take some big swings Sunday to shake up strategies among the current top eight not already locked in. 

Daniel Suárez

Points below elimination line: 20

Chances of advancing to next round: 9.93%

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Ice Cold: A big opening-stage mistake from Suárez at Talladega ruined his day and the superspeedway rubbed some salt in the wound when the No. 99 was collected in the "Big One." A good starting spot Sunday could help but it hasn't worked in the last two Roval events for Suárez, who started third in both 2022 and 2023 and finished outside the top 30 in both. 

Austin Cindric

Points below elimination line: 29

Chances of advancing to next round: 5.74%

Trending: Ice Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- Cold: The Round of 12 will be remembered as a "what could've been" for Cindric if he cannot shock the field with a win Sunday at the Roval. He had a top-10 car at Kansas but was spun in Stage 2, then was leading in the closing laps at Talladega before a hard push from Logano and Keselowski led to the No. 2 spinning and wrecking with most of the field. With two finishes outside the top 20 at the Roval, Cindric will need a "Hail Mary" performance to advance. 

Chase Briscoe

Points below elimination line: 32

Chances of advancing to next round: 4.18%

Trending: Cold

Charlotte Roval outlook -- We've already seen Briscoe hit a walk-off at Darlington to reach the playoffs and he'll need to do the same Sunday at the Roval. He finished ninth in the 2022 race to advance to the Round of 8 but will need to one-up that performance to return to the semi-final round.