Bubble Watch: Shock eliminations could await at Bristol
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Kansas once again shook up the playoff picture last Sunday as multiple drivers suffered on-track woes, including regular-season champion Martin Truex Jr., who now sits outside of the Round of 12.
The iconic Bristol Night Race closes out the Round of 16 on Saturday (6:30 ET, USA, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), which will eliminate four drivers from the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. See the outlook for drivers closest to the elimination line, presented by Xfinity.
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Chris Buescher
Points above elimination line: 13
Trending -- Kansas snapped hot streak
Bristol outlook -- Hot: Buescher's playoff run took its first hit last Sunday as a flat tire plummeted the No. 17 team to a 27th-place finish. However, there should be little to no worries for Buescher as he's the defending winner of the Bristol Night Race and finished eighth in 2020.
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Christopher Bell
Points above elimination line: 13
Trending -- Hit or Miss
Bristol outlook -- Hit or Miss: The No. 20 team is still facing inconsistency early in the playoffs that has plagued them the entire 2023 season. Bell was in contention to win last year's race before a flat tire ruined his chances to score the victory. He still rallied to finish fourth in that race.
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Joey Logano
Points above elimination line: 12
Trending -- Mostly Warm
Bristol outlook -- Cold: This is not the track for Logano to hold his slim 12-point gap over the elimination line as he's failed to finish inside the top 10 in the last five Bristol races. He may need some serious help from his playoff rivals in order to advance Saturday night.
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Kevin Harvick
Points above elimination line: 7
Trending -- Mostly Cold
Bristol outlook -- Hot: Harvick enters Saturday night as the last man into the Round of 12 with a single-digit gap above Martin Truex Jr., the 2023 regular-season champ. Harvick owns three straight top-10 finishes on the short track, including a win in 2020 and runner-up result in 2021.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr.
Points below elimination line: 7
Trending -- Cold
Bristol outlook -- Mostly Cold: The most shocking occurrence so far this postseason has been the back-to-back disasters for the No. 19 team. Truex was matched with William Byron as the top two in points to kick off the postseason. Now, Truex may miss the Round of 12 as he's not been good at Bristol in recent memory. His last top-five finish at Bristol? Spring 2012.
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Bubba Wallace
Points below elimination line: 19
Trending -- Mostly Cold
Bristol outlook -- Cold: The writing appears to be on the wall for the No. 23 team. Kansas was the exact opposite Wallace needed from a track where he's really good. With double-digit points to make up on Saturday night, it's going to take a miracle for Wallace to advance.
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Points below elimination line: 22
Trending -- Cold
Bristol outlook -- Cold: A best result of 20th at Bristol since 2018 doesn't bode well for scoring enough points to advance to the Round of 12. The last two weekends haven't been what Stenhouse needed to put him in a good spot for Saturday night.
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Michael McDowell
Points below elimination line: 40
Trending -- Win or Bust
Bristol outlook -- Cold: McDowell is in must-win territory Saturday night and you can probably bank on that not happening. The No. 34 team has shined this season as Front Row Motorsports continues to blossom into a competitive organization in the Cup Series.