Bubble Watch: Southern 500 all about survival to start postseason run

The Round of 16 begins Sunday with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) — a crown-jewel race that's been known to be attrition-filled for the Cup Series playoff field.

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in South Carolina with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Fill out your 2025 Playoff Grid | Printable Cup Series Playoffs bracket

Safely above the elimination line:

1. Kyle Larson (plus-26)

2. William Byron (plus-26)

3. Denny Hamlin (plus-23)

4. Ryan Blaney (plus-20)

Not as safe but still with a high-percentage chance of advancing:

5. Christopher Bell (plus-17)

6. Shane van Gisbergen (plus-16)

7. Chase Elliott (plus-7)

8. Chase Briscoe (plus-4)

Bubba Wallace

Points above elimination line: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 70.6%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Darlington outlook -- Warm: Wallace's last 10 races are all over the place, but all that matters is the big checkered flag he earned in the Brickyard 400 to clinch his playoff berth. He's coming off a Richmond loose wheel and Daytona DNF, which doesn't help momentum entering the postseason. However, Wallace has four top 10s in the last six Darlington races and won the pole for last year's Southern 500. 

Austin Cindric

Points above elimination line: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 63.3%

Trending: Cold

Darlington outlook -- Cold: Since his Talladega win, Cindric has just one top 15 in the 16 races since. Sunday is not trending in his favor either as Darlington is one of three tracks where the No. 2 Team Penske driver has made six or more starts with no top 10s. 

Ross Chastain

Points above elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 56.2%

Trending: Cold

Darlington outlook -- Warm: Aside from his thrilling Coca-Cola 600 victory back in May, Chastain has been shockingly quiet in 2025 as the Alva, Florida, native owns just four top 10s in the last 15 races. Although, Darlington is a different story for the 2022 Championship 4 finalist as he's finished seventh or better in three of the last four races at the South Carolina oval. 

Joey Logano

Points above elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 77.4%

Trending: Warming Up

Darlington outlook -- Cold: No regular season ever seems to be flashy for Logano, but it's been a part of the formula that's led to three series titles -- the most of any active Cup driver. However, the No. 22 Penske driver has racked up top 10s in two of the last four races and tied teammate Blaney for the most laps led at Daytona last Saturday (27). At Darlington, Logano won the spring race in 2022 but has just one top 10 in the last five events there. 

Josh Berry

Points below elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 51.2%

Trending: Ice Cold

Darlington outlook -- Hit or Miss: Berry showed flashes of success on bigger ovals, which came as a surprise with a Vegas win and a sixth-place run at Kansas earlier this season. He's entering the playoff on a stretch of back-to-back top 10s and finished third in the 2024 spring race at Darlington. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 78.2%

Trending: Cold

Darlington outlook -- Hot: Compared to his first 26 races last year that led to a Regular Season Championship, Reddick has looked pedestrian in 2025 without a victory. But could Darlington be a cure-all to make the No. 45 Toyota look like a title contender again? Darlington is the track Reddick has led the most laps on of any track (319) and he's finished fourth or better in four of the last seven Next Gen races there.

Austin Dillon

Points below elimination line: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 39.8%

Trending: Win or Cold

Darlington outlook -- Cold: Dillon's results are varied at Darlington, but haven't trended well in the Next Gen car, with just one top 15 in the last six races at the South Carolina track. 

Alex Bowman

Points below elimination line: 5

Chances of advancing to next round: 63.9%

Trending: Warm

Darlington outlook -- Cold: Bowman's summer was pretty solid with finishes of 11th or better in eight of the last 11 events. Unfortunately, Darlington is one of the weaker tracks for the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team as Bowman has finishes of 19th or worse in five of the last seven races at the track "Too Tough To Tame."