Bubble Watch: Title favorites need to navigate Watkins Glen’s unknowns this weekend

The Round of 16 continues Sunday at Watkins Glen International (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), with a race that could create even more drama with a new tire compound.

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in the Empire State, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

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Safely above the elimination line

1. Joey Logano (ADV)

2. Ryan Blaney (plus-45)

3. Christopher Bell (plus-40)

4. Tyler Reddick (plus-33)

Not as safe but still with a high-percentage chance of advancing:

5. William Byron (plus-33)

6. Alex Bowman (plus-27)

7. Austin Cindric (plus-27)

8. Chase Elliott (plus-24)

Daniel Suárez

Points above elimination line: 22

Chances of advancing to next round: 90.29%

Trending: Warm

Watkins Glen outlook -- Hit or Miss: Among the Cup field, Suárez is definitely in the top half of best road-course racers. His first series win came at Sonoma and he's scored top fives in three starts at The Glen. However, the other half of his starts at the New York circuit were 17th or worse, including last year (22nd). 

Kyle Larson

Points above elimination line: 15

Chances of advancing to next round: 89.36%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook -- Hot: One of the best road-course racers in the sport, Larson needs a good result after wrecking at the end of Stage 1 along with Chase Briscoe. Larson entered the playoffs as the top seed but now sits just 15 to the good. He's won two of the last three races at Watkins Glen. 

Denny Hamlin

Points above elimination line: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 79.19%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook -- Warm: Better The Glen as a Round of 16 road course than any other as Hamlin's only Next Gen top 10 on a road course came at the New York track. Hamlin picked the wrong strategy at Atlanta by hanging at the rear of the field all race long and now will need a clutch performance Sunday to rebuild a steady gap before the elimination race at Bristol. 

Ty Gibbs

Points above elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 65.62%

Trending: Cold

Watkins Glen outlook -- Warm: A tepid outing at Atlanta still put Gibbs into the top 12, but by just a single digit over 2012 champ Brad Keselowski. However, road courses have become bread and butter for the sophomore driver as he has top fives in four of the last five road-course races, including a fifth-place run at Watkins Glen last year. 

Brad Keselowski

Points below elimination line: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 63.15%

Trending: Going Cold

Watkins Glen outlook -- Ice Cold: Atlanta needed to be a big points day for Keselowski and it was anything but. Now on the wrong side of the elimination line, Keselowski will need a miracle Sunday or capitalize on strategy to maximize on stage points. The long-time veteran is winless in 46 road-course starts and owns just a single top 10 in the last 21 road-course starts. 

Harrison Burton

Points below elimination line: 16

Chances of advancing to next round: 3.26%

Trending: Win or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook -- Cold: Atlanta needed to be a victory for Burton to advance and it doesn't appear that will happen for the third-year driver. In two Watkins Glen starts, Burton has a best finish of 28th. 

Martin Truex Jr.

Points below elimination line: 19

Chances of advancing to next round: 21.69%

Trending: Ice Cold

Watkins Glen outlook -- Warm: Truex is not out of the hunt for a Round of 12 berth despite a double-digit deficit to the elimination line. The Glen will be a welcome sight for the 2017 series champ as he's finished top 10 in six of the last seven races at the road course. Truex will need to make it seven of the last eight on Sunday to be in a decent spot heading to the elimination race at Bristol. 

Chase Briscoe

Points below elimination line: 21

Chances of advancing to next round: 7.81%

Trending: Win or Miss

Watkins Glen outlook -- Cold: Briscoe wrecked with Larson at the end of Stage 1 at Atlanta and now the Southern 500 winner will have to make up 21 points to get on the right side of the bubble. Watkins Glen may be trouble once again though for the No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing driver, with finishes of 25th and 35th in the last two races at the road course, respectively.