Bubble Watch: Where drivers closest to cutline stand before Michigan

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Points below cutline: 280 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet once had a streak of four straight top 10s spanning from Dover to Charlotte but hasn't finished inside the top 10 since. Stenhouse has finished inside the top 20 over the last two races, though, with a 13th-place run at Indianapolis.

Michigan outlook -- Hit or Miss: Stenhouse finished 12th at Michigan last year but has just one top-10 run on the 2-mile oval (2017) and has yet to lead a lap.

Cole Custer

Points below cutline: 287 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: The Stewart-Haas Racing driver has yet to find his stride in his third Cup season, but any quality results are good. He has picked up two top 10s in the last four races. Two finishes of 17th or worse have also been a part of that stretch.

Michigan outlook -- Cold: His best run was 23rd at Michigan, which came last season. Like Michael McDowell, don't expect the No. 41 Ford to race toward the front Sunday.

Michael McDowell

Points below cutline: 295 | Full standings

Trending -- Warm: Penalty aside, McDowell has had himself quite the season. He has two straight finishes of eighth or better and has eight top 10s across the last 14 races.

Michigan outlook -- Cold: McDowell's top-10 trend likely halts at Michigan as he has a career-best finish of 20th (Aug. 2021). He's also never scored any stage points on the 2-mile oval.

Chris Buescher

Points below cutline: 256 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: Buescher has scored six top 10s this season but that comes with 15 finishes of 15th or worse. Despite his car catching on fire, he managed a top 10 to snap a three-race skid of 17th or worse results.

Michigan outlook -- Cold: Buescher has a career-best finish of sixth on the 2-mile oval but has finished 14th or worse in his last seven starts at the track.

Justin Haley

Points below cutline: 246 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: Haley consistently rides somewhere close to or inside the top 20. However, he only has one top 10 in the last 10 races (Atlanta) and finished 19th at Indianapolis.

Michigan outlook -- Cold: There's not much to go off for Haley at Michigan as he has just one start with Spire Motorsports at the track, which was a 25th-place result last season.

Austin Dillon

Points below cutline: 216 | Full standings

Trending -- Mostly Cold: Dillon has nine finishes of 11th or worse over the last 10 races, which includes three DNFs. He has just seven top-10 results this season.

Michigan outlook -- Mostly Cold: Dillon ran inside the top 10 at the end of Stage 2 in last year's race but crashed hard after the stage finish. He has a career-best finish of fourth at the track, which has happened twice (Aug. 2015, Aug. 2018), but has four finishes of 13th or worse in his last five Michigan starts.

Bubba Wallace

Points below cutline: 213 | Full standings

Trending -- Hot: Following a streak of six straight finishes of 12th or worse, Wallace has finished eighth or better in his last three starts, which is the first time the driver of the No. 23 Toyota has scored three straight top 10s.

Michigan outlook -- Mostly Cold: Wallace has two straight finishes of 19th or worse on the 2-mile oval and has never scored any stage points at the track.

Erik Jones

Points below cutline: 175 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: Over the last four races, Jones has two finishes of eighth or better but two finishes of 15th or worse.

Michigan outlook -- Cold: Jones has a career-best finish of third on the 2-mile oval but is on a stretch of seven straight finishes of 11th or worse.

Aric Almirola

Points below cutline: 156 | Full standings

Trending -- Cold: Almirola heads to Michigan with six finishes of 13th or worse in his last seven starts. This includes 12 finishes outside the top 10 in his last 14 races.

Michigan outlook -- Mostly Cold: Almirola has four finishes of 16th or worse in his last five starts on the 2-mile oval. He's only led 13 laps in 18 career starts at the track.

Kevin Harvick

Points below cutline: 96 | Full standings

Trending -- Cooling Off: Harvick owns four top 10s in his last seven races but enters Michigan with two straight results of 27th or worse.

Michigan outlook -- Hot: Harvick has five career Michigan victories, which includes winning four of the last six races on the 2-mile oval. He also owns 12 top fives in his last 17 Michigan starts. He's the track's active leader in wins (5), top fives (15), top 10s (21), laps led (699) and stage wins (6).

Martin Truex Jr.

Points above cutline: 96 | Full standings

Trending -- Hit or Miss: Truex owns just two finishes of seventh or better in his last seven races and five finishes of 11th or worse. He's coming off a 21st-place run at Indianapolis.

Michigan outlook -- Hot: The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has five straight top 10s at Michigan, which includes four top-four results in his last five starts on the two-mile oval.

Ryan Blaney

Points above cutline: 121 | Full standings

Trending -- Cold: Blaney enters Michigan with three straight finishes of 18th or worse and has just one top-five finish in his last five races.

Michigan outlook -- Hot: Blaney is the defending race winner at Michigan and owns five top-10 results on the 2-mile oval in his last seven starts.

With only two open spots, the playoff pressure ramps up as we enter the final stretch of four regular-season races. See where drivers sit before Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway (3 p.m. ET on USA Network, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), with stats and ratings provided by Racing Insights.