Bubble Watch: Who will shine in Sunflower State or be left in misery?

Team Penske rose back to the top at New Hampshire as Ryan Blaney took the checkered flag to cement his spot in the Round of 8. On the flip side, Toyota struggled in Loudon, leaving 23XI Racing on the outside looking in, and Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe needing to perform well at Kansas Speedway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).  

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in the Sunflower State, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Drivers on the rise after Loudon

Safely above the elimination line

1. Ryan Blaney (ADV)

2. William Byron (plus-47)

3. Kyle Larson (plus-41)

4. Christopher Bell (plus-29)

Denny Hamlin

Points above cutline: 27

Chances of advancing to next round: 77.9%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Hot: It's almost a guarantee that Hamlin will finish well at Kansas. He is the winningest driver in the Sunflower State (4) and six top fives in the last eight races. Even when his pit crew has one of its worst days, the 59-time Cup winner still can pull through for a top 10. The last few months have been a mixed bag for Hamlin though as he has top 10s in just three of the last eight races. 

Joey Logano

Points above cutline: 24

Chances of advancing to next round: 82.1%

Trending: Hot

Kansas outlook -- Hit or Miss: Look out. Logano put together top fives in three consecutive races for the first time since 2019 and a fourth will likely solidify him in the Round of 8. He's finished 14th or worse in five of the last nine Kansas races, but what has been proven over the last few years is if you give the No. 22 driver an inch, he'll take a mile. 

Chase Elliott 

Points above cutline: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 89%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Warm: One week, Elliott looks like a title contender and the next, on his way out of the playoffs. It was the former last weekend at New Hampshire with a fifth-place run and the No. 9 driver will be in a good spot to perform well at one of his best tracks. His 10.4 average finish at Kansas is his best among active 1.5-mile tracks. 

Chase Briscoe

Points above cutline: 12

Chances of advancing to next round: 66.3%

Trending: Warm

Kansas outlook -- Warming Up: Crew chief James Small said it was the spring Kansas race that got the season going for the No. 19 team. Briscoe finished fourth in that race and enters Sunday's return to the track with four consecutive top 10s. Will it be a full-circle moment for Briscoe with a trip to Victory Lane? 

Ross Chastain

Points below cutline: 12

Chances of advancing to next round: 31.9%

Trending: Warming Up

Kansas outlook -- Win or Miss: Chastain got a much-needed top 10 at New Hampshire last weekend to get the momentum rolling to an event where he is the defending winner. Last year, he spoiled playoff drivers and took the win despite not being eligible for the title. While he was 18th in the spring race, do not count out Chastain to provide the first true shock in this year's playoffs. 

Austin Cindric

Points below cutline: 19

Chances of advancing to next round: 9.4%

Trending: Cold

Kansas outlook -- Ice Cold: On paper, the writing may be on the wall for Cindric's title hopes as Kansas is his worst track on the Cup circuit with an average finish of 23.6 (with 7 or more starts made). 

However, Cindric found something early in last year's playoff race to score stage points in the opening frame before crashing late in Stage 2. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below cutline: 23

Chances of advancing to next round: 42.1%

Trending: Ice Cold

Kansas outlook -- Cold: 23XI overall had a bad day at New Hampshire and if both Reddick and Bubba Wallace want to claw back closer to the cutline, they need to find the speed that created dominion for them at Kansas in 2022 and 2023. Reddick won the playoff race at the 1.5-mile track two years ago, but his best finish since then at Kansas was 17th in the spring. 

Bubba Wallace

Points below cutline: 27

Chances of advancing to next round: 6.4%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Kansas outlook -- Ice Cold: In the same boat as Reddick, the No. 23 team needs to rediscover the pace that made 23XI almost impossible to beat at Kansas. Base hits won't be enough to advance to the Round of 8 now, and with no top 10s in the last four Kansas races, Wallace needs to hit a home run to keep his title hopes alive before the Charlotte Roval.