Bubble Watch: Will a driver below cutline advance to Championship 4?

It's time to settle the four drivers who will be competing for the 2025 Cup Series championship as the penultimate race of the year takes place Sunday at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). No driver has advanced from beneath the cutline in an elimination race in these playoffs, but the four below have all won at Martinsville. If you're not Chase Briscoe or Denny Hamlin, you probably shouldn't feel safe in your Championship 4 bid. 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race at Martinsville, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Power Rankings entering Martinsville

Safely above the elimination line

1. Chase Briscoe (ADV)

2. Denny Hamlin (ADV)

Christopher Bell

Points above cutline: 37

Chances of advancing to next round: 81.5%

Trending: Hot

Martinsville outlook -- Hit or Miss: Outside of a 29th-place finish in the Southern 500, Bell has finished eighth or better throughout the playoffs. However, it's only led to a fairly similar predicament to last year's Martinsville cutoff race. If there is a new winner, Bell only leads Larson by a single point for the final spot. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing crew can't afford to miss the setup this weekend or else it could result in another 22nd-place fiasco. 

Kyle Larson

Points above cutline: 36

Chances of advancing to next round: 81.8%

Trending: Cooling Off

Martinsville outlook -- Hot: Larson ran out of fuel down the backstretch on the final lap at Talladega, which parachuted him to a 26th-place result. He has a big cushion to the cutline, but the expectation should be that a driver below him wins Sunday. It's quite possible as the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver has finished sixth or better in six of seven Gen 7 races at the short track. 

William Byron

Points below cutline: 36

Chances of advancing to next round: 8.5%

Trending: Cold

Martinsville outlook -- Hit or Miss: The semifinal round could not have gone worse for Byron as he was collateral damage in miscommunication from Ty Dillon and the No. 10 team at damage that resulted in a hard crash, and then was spun in the tri-oval coming to the checkered flag at Talladega. Luck is bound to turn in the No. 24 team's favor and they should be in contention Sunday. Byron owns two wins in the Gen 7 car at Martinsville. 

Joey Logano

Points below cutline: 38

Chances of advancing to next round: 6.1%

Trending: Cooled Off

Martinsville outlook -- Warm: Logano was in perfect position with Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney to go for the win at Talladega. But cars in the bottom lane behind them lost momentum and faded, which sent both the Nos. 12 and 22 toward the back of the pack  for the closing laps and the two drivers finished outside the top 10. Logano needs a win and he's finished inside the top 10 in every Martinsville Cup race dating back to the fall of 2019 and the infamous post-race brawl with Denny Hamlin. 

Ryan Blaney

Points below cutline: 47

Chances of advancing to next round: 12.5%

Trending: Ice Cold

Martinsville outlook -- Hot: One thing's for certain -- you can never count out Blaney in the Martinsville playoff race. Last year, he outdueled Hendrick's Larson and Chase Elliott to win from beneath the cutline, and he did it a year prior to set up his title win in 2023. It's very likely Blaney could do it for a third straight year. 

Chase Elliott 

Points below cutline: 62

Chances of advancing to next round: 9.6%

Trending: Ice Cold

Martinsville outlook -- Hit or Miss: Elliott was a part of early Talladega calamity getting involved in a multicar incident in Stage 1. He finished last with just a single point and the only path to Phoenix is a win. Don't underestimate the No. 9 driver though. He led 129 laps and nearly won the Martinsville playoff race last year. He's finished inside the top five in the last three races at the short track and has led a grand total of 557 laps in the Gen 7 car there, only failing to lead a lap in one race during this span.