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Bubble Watch, presented by Xfinity: Is Byron in too deep of a hole to advance?
By Pat DeCola | Published: September 14, 2021 9
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William Byron may have the season's longest top-10 streak, but he's no lock to escape the Round of 16 after a rough start to the NASCAR Playoffs. If the Round of 12 started today, these upcoming drivers would be the first four in and the last four out. Fortunately for each of the 16 playoff drivers, they control their own destiny in the hunt for a championship. Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) could shake things up even further. Take a look at who's on the bubble, presented by Xfinity.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski: FIRST FOUR IN
Points above 13th: 13
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Keselowski has had a decent start to the playoffs with finishes of seventh and 13th, but he really has been hit or miss with four top 10s and four finishes of 13th or worse over his last eight races.
Bristol outlook: Warm recently — three career Bristol wins and two top threes in the last three races there, but eight finishes of 16th or worse in the last 10.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch: FIRST FOUR IN
Points above 13th: 8
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — Busch has 12 top 10s and two wins in the last 18 races, but Richmond snapped a two-race stint of finishes 34th or worse.
Bristol outlook: Red hot — Busch is the master at Bristol, with eight wins and four straight finishes of fourth or better.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Aric Almirola: FIRST FOUR IN
Points above 13th: 3
Full standings
Trending: Cold — Almirola has six straight finishes of 14th or worse and just 51 laps led in 28 races this year, despite the one win.
Bristol outlook: Mostly cold — Almirola has four finishes of 29th or worse in the last five Bristol races, but did finish a career-best third there in 2014.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kurt Busch: FIRST FOUR IN
Points above 13th: 0 (final transfer spot, holds tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Hit or miss — a catastrophic Richmond race put Busch's recent hot streak on a screeching halt, but he's still led laps in nine of the last 13 races.
Bristol outlook: Warm — Bristol runs in the Busch family, and Kurt has six wins of his own, including four top 10s in the last five races.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Alex Bowman: FIRST FOUR OUT
Points below 12th: 0 (does not hold tiebreaker)
Full standings
Trending: Cold — a driver that's won three of the last 19 races is cold? Yes, as Bowman has five finishes of 12th or worse in the last six races and sits on the wrong side of the elimination line.
Bristol outlook: Cold — things haven't been much better at Bristol for him, either, with four straight finishes of 15th or worse and zero laps led in 10 starts.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Tyler Reddick: FIRST FOUR OUT
Points below 12th: 5
Full standings
Trending: Cold — Reddick's midseason momentum seems to have all but dissipated, with just two top 10s the last seven races and just 26 total laps led this season.
Bristol outlook: Hit or miss — he'll need to be firing on all cylinders at Bristol and it's definitely possible. Though he's short on experience there, his first Night Race start netted a top five last year.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
William Byron: FIRST FOUR OUT
Points below 12th: 18
Full standings
Trending: Cold — Three straight finishes of 19th or worse and three DNFs in his last five races have completely sunk a Championship 4 dark horse and he'll need a miracle at Bristol to advance.
Bristol outlook: Mostly cold — last May resulted in a career-best eighth-place run at Bristol, but overall he has five finishes of 16th or worse in six starts there.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Michael McDowell: FIRST FOUR OUT
Points below 12th: 38
Full standings
Trending: Ice cold — McDowell has three DNFs in the last five races, 14 straight finishes of 16th or worse and has scored stage points in just six of 57 stages in 2021.
Bristol outlook: Mostly cold — it's all but a certainty that McDowell needs to win to advance, and it isn't likely. Though he notched a career-best 10th at Bristol in this race last year, he had 20 straight finishes of 14th or worse before that.