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Charlotte Roval preview: Best, worst outlooks for Round of 12 elimination race
By Sean Montgomery | Published: October 8, 2020 8
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
As the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway for a road-course showdown, the pressure is high for drivers to survive another daunting elimination race. With only six tickets left to be punched for the Round of 8, NASCAR.com ranks which remaining contenders have the best and worst outlooks based on earlier Roval performances and current trends.
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SAFE AND SOUND: Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch.
Busch finally mastered his home track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Hamlin edged out a hard-charging field at Talladega Superspeedway, setting them up as the only drivers who have claimed a spot in the Round of 8. Because both are out of the elimination mix for this weekend, let's focus on six of the remaining 10 playoff drivers.
Busch finally mastered his home track at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Hamlin edged out a hard-charging field at Talladega Superspeedway, setting them up as the only drivers who have claimed a spot in the Round of 8. Because both are out of the elimination mix for this weekend, let's focus on six of the remaining 10 playoff drivers.
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BEST: Chase Elliott
Average finish at the Roval: 3.5 (tied for second among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: Winner
Comment: Who is a better road-course racer right now than Elliott? Arguably no one. He has three straight wins on road courses and won four of the last six -- including a show-stopping come-from-behind win during the final stage of last year's Roval race after an unforgettable mishap. He is the driver to beat, and his key moment may come right on time for an outside title favorite.
Average finish at the Roval: 3.5 (tied for second among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: Winner
Comment: Who is a better road-course racer right now than Elliott? Arguably no one. He has three straight wins on road courses and won four of the last six -- including a show-stopping come-from-behind win during the final stage of last year's Roval race after an unforgettable mishap. He is the driver to beat, and his key moment may come right on time for an outside title favorite.
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BEST: Kevin Harvick
Average finish at the Roval: 6.0 (fourth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 3rd
Comment: Harvick has had success at the Roval, notching two top 10s in the two trips there. Sitting a comfortable 68 points above the cutline, the No. 4 team is nearly a lock to advance to the Round of 8 -- and after a third-place result here last year, a win could be just another cherry on top.
Average finish at the Roval: 6.0 (fourth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 3rd
Comment: Harvick has had success at the Roval, notching two top 10s in the two trips there. Sitting a comfortable 68 points above the cutline, the No. 4 team is nearly a lock to advance to the Round of 8 -- and after a third-place result here last year, a win could be just another cherry on top.
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BEST: Martin Truex Jr.
Average finish at the Roval: 10.5 (sixth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 7th
Comment: Perhaps the only driver who has matched Elliott's remarkable road-course pace has been Truex. He has been red hot over the last 11 races with three wins and nine consecutive finishes of seventh or better. Currently sixth in the playoff standings, he just needs a solid day to advance -- usually a very safe bet.
Average finish at the Roval: 10.5 (sixth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 7th
Comment: Perhaps the only driver who has matched Elliott's remarkable road-course pace has been Truex. He has been red hot over the last 11 races with three wins and nine consecutive finishes of seventh or better. Currently sixth in the playoff standings, he just needs a solid day to advance -- usually a very safe bet.
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WORST: Kyle Busch
Average finish at the Roval: 34.5 (last -- 12th -- among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 37th
Comment: The defending Cup Series champion has the talent and ability to turn it on on any given week. Heading into this weekend's pressure-filled race at the Roval, his quest for a third career title may be stalling out. Already below the cutline, the two trips to this track have been borderline disasters for the No. 18 camp -- crashing out of the race in 2018 and parking in the garage due to suspension issues last season. Needing at least a solid points day, will this time be any different?
Average finish at the Roval: 34.5 (last -- 12th -- among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 37th
Comment: The defending Cup Series champion has the talent and ability to turn it on on any given week. Heading into this weekend's pressure-filled race at the Roval, his quest for a third career title may be stalling out. Already below the cutline, the two trips to this track have been borderline disasters for the No. 18 camp -- crashing out of the race in 2018 and parking in the garage due to suspension issues last season. Needing at least a solid points day, will this time be any different?
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
WORST: Austin Dillon
Average finish at the Roval: 31.0 (11th among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 23rd
Comment: Dillon had been one of the playoff surprises, kicking off the Round of 16 with back-to-back top-five finishes that kept him on pace with the second-tier title contenders. Despite regrouping with a 12th-place finish at Talladega last weekend, his Las Vegas woes leave him in a challenging position. Dillon has never finished inside the top 10 at a road course in his Cup Series career -- not ideal for a driver who needs a clutch win or significant points day.
Average finish at the Roval: 31.0 (11th among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 23rd
Comment: Dillon had been one of the playoff surprises, kicking off the Round of 16 with back-to-back top-five finishes that kept him on pace with the second-tier title contenders. Despite regrouping with a 12th-place finish at Talladega last weekend, his Las Vegas woes leave him in a challenging position. Dillon has never finished inside the top 10 at a road course in his Cup Series career -- not ideal for a driver who needs a clutch win or significant points day.
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WORST: Aric Almirola
Average finish at the Roval: 16.5 (ninth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 14th
Comment: Almirola has had a pair of decent runs at the Roval in the past, never finishing outside of the top 20 or acquiring much damage in either race. But after unfortunate troubles last weekend at Talladega left him 48 points below the cutline, it is hard to see him finding the speed he needs in a near must-win situation at a road course -- tallying just two top-10 finishes in 19 career Cup Series starts, this might call an end to his title contention.
Average finish at the Roval: 16.5 (ninth among remaining playoff drivers)
Most recent finish at the Roval: 14th
Comment: Almirola has had a pair of decent runs at the Roval in the past, never finishing outside of the top 20 or acquiring much damage in either race. But after unfortunate troubles last weekend at Talladega left him 48 points below the cutline, it is hard to see him finding the speed he needs in a near must-win situation at a road course -- tallying just two top-10 finishes in 19 career Cup Series starts, this might call an end to his title contention.