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16 playoff spots, 17 winners? Best midseason candidates to make it happen
By Zack Albert | Monday, May 16, 2022
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The tally of NASCAR Cup Series winners grew by one last weekend at Kansas Speedway as Kurt Busch joined those ranks. That swelled the number of Cup Series victors to 11 through 13 races -- the exact midpoint of the regular season. By the win-and-in method, 11 of the 16 postseason slots are virtually filled, with (math, please) five playoff berths left for the taking –- stoking the ever-tantalizing possibility that more than 16 winners could emerge in the 26-race regular season. Should that crawl toward chaos continue, several contenders would be happy to add their names to the victory roll call. Since 13 races remain, here's a baker's dozen of the top candidates (in order of their points standings rank) to get into the act down the stretch.
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RYAN BLANEY
Cup Series points rank: 2nd
Season so far: The Team Penske driver has been in the ballpark, leading laps in 11 of the 13 races and tying for the series lead with three pole positions. He's led 100-plus laps twice –- at Phoenix and Richmond –- but has a best finish of fourth place this year, a result he's achieved three times.
Favorable track: Daytona. Based on his performance this year on similarly sized tracks, New Hampshire carries some promise for Blaney. He may well clinch before then as a potential threat at most tracks, but Blaney's superspeedway prowess looms large for the regular-season finale.
Cup Series points rank: 2nd
Season so far: The Team Penske driver has been in the ballpark, leading laps in 11 of the 13 races and tying for the series lead with three pole positions. He's led 100-plus laps twice –- at Phoenix and Richmond –- but has a best finish of fourth place this year, a result he's achieved three times.
Favorable track: Daytona. Based on his performance this year on similarly sized tracks, New Hampshire carries some promise for Blaney. He may well clinch before then as a potential threat at most tracks, but Blaney's superspeedway prowess looms large for the regular-season finale.
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MARTIN TRUEX JR.
Cup Series points rank: 6th
Season so far: Like Blaney, it's a smidge on the surprising side that Truex hasn't broken into the win column yet. Two DNFs have hurt his place in the standings, and his mark of just two top-five finishes (fourth at Richmond, fifth at Talladega) is below his usual clip.
Favorable track: Richmond. Let's give a mention to Watkins Glen, where MTJ's road-course cred is well-documented in his recent finishes (in order since 2017): first, second, second and third. But the Virginia short track has become almost a second home for Truex, who has a staggering average finish of 2.4 in the last seven races there.
Cup Series points rank: 6th
Season so far: Like Blaney, it's a smidge on the surprising side that Truex hasn't broken into the win column yet. Two DNFs have hurt his place in the standings, and his mark of just two top-five finishes (fourth at Richmond, fifth at Talladega) is below his usual clip.
Favorable track: Richmond. Let's give a mention to Watkins Glen, where MTJ's road-course cred is well-documented in his recent finishes (in order since 2017): first, second, second and third. But the Virginia short track has become almost a second home for Truex, who has a staggering average finish of 2.4 in the last seven races there.
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CHRISTOPHER BELL
Cup Series points rank: 10th
Season so far: Bell has the most top-10 finishes (7) among the non-winners this season, and his three poles have backed up the notion of speed in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing camp. He's recovered nicely after starting the season with back-to-back DNFs, averaging a fifth-place finish in his last three starts.
Favorable track: New Hampshire. Bell was runner-up at the "Magic Mile" a year ago, but his Xfinity Series portfolio there is even more impressive –- an undefeated 3-for-3 record at the 1.058-mile venue.
Cup Series points rank: 10th
Season so far: Bell has the most top-10 finishes (7) among the non-winners this season, and his three poles have backed up the notion of speed in the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing camp. He's recovered nicely after starting the season with back-to-back DNFs, averaging a fifth-place finish in his last three starts.
Favorable track: New Hampshire. Bell was runner-up at the "Magic Mile" a year ago, but his Xfinity Series portfolio there is even more impressive –- an undefeated 3-for-3 record at the 1.058-mile venue.
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KEVIN HARVICK
Cup Series points rank: 11th
Season so far: The cupboard has been nearly bare for the Stewart-Haas Racing veteran in terms of laps led –- an unlucky 13 total through 13 races. Stellar runs at Richmond and Darlington –- his only top-five outcomes – have provided bright spots.
Favorable track: Michigan. Even though the performance might not be at a characteristic level, Harvick has won four of the last six races in the Irish Hills –- a peerless track record.
Cup Series points rank: 11th
Season so far: The cupboard has been nearly bare for the Stewart-Haas Racing veteran in terms of laps led –- an unlucky 13 total through 13 races. Stellar runs at Richmond and Darlington –- his only top-five outcomes – have provided bright spots.
Favorable track: Michigan. Even though the performance might not be at a characteristic level, Harvick has won four of the last six races in the Irish Hills –- a peerless track record.
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ARIC ALMIROLA
Cup Series points rank: 12th
Season so far: In what's set to be his final Cup Series season, Almirola opened the year as the only driver to finish top 10 in the first three races. He's settled back in the standings since, leading laps in just one race this season –- Atlanta.
Favorable track: Nashville. The SHR campaigner took a quick liking to one of the circuit's newest tracks last year. He won the Busch Light Pole at the 1.333-mile oval last June, then backed that up with a strong fourth-place result.
Cup Series points rank: 12th
Season so far: In what's set to be his final Cup Series season, Almirola opened the year as the only driver to finish top 10 in the first three races. He's settled back in the standings since, leading laps in just one race this season –- Atlanta.
Favorable track: Nashville. The SHR campaigner took a quick liking to one of the circuit's newest tracks last year. He won the Busch Light Pole at the 1.333-mile oval last June, then backed that up with a strong fourth-place result.
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AUSTIN DILLON
Cup Series points rank: 13th
Season so far: Dillon hasn't led a green-flag lap this year, but his stats have trended upward elsewhere. The 32-year-old driver has three top fives in 2022, up from just one a year ago. He's also come oh-so-close to breaking through as a runner-up at both Auto Club and Talladega.
Favorable track: Charlotte. Dillon notched his first Cup Series win in the Coca-Cola 600 five years ago. His two most recent starts on the 1.5-mile track have produced top-10 results.
Cup Series points rank: 13th
Season so far: Dillon hasn't led a green-flag lap this year, but his stats have trended upward elsewhere. The 32-year-old driver has three top fives in 2022, up from just one a year ago. He's also come oh-so-close to breaking through as a runner-up at both Auto Club and Talladega.
Favorable track: Charlotte. Dillon notched his first Cup Series win in the Coca-Cola 600 five years ago. His two most recent starts on the 1.5-mile track have produced top-10 results.
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TYLER REDDICK
Cup Series points rank: tie-14th
Season so far: Three DNFs have hampered the No. 8 team in the consistency department, but like Dillon –- his Richard Childress Racing teammate –- other indicators are on an uptick. Only a last-lap collision kept him from winning Bristol's annual dirt-track race, and he was second again earlier this month at Darlington.
Favorable track: Road America. Homestead-Miami -– arguably Reddick's best track -- isn't in the regular-season rotation, so let's shout out a circuit where the No. 8 Chevy driver can flex some of his road-racing talent. Last year at Elkhart Lake, Reddick started fourth and finished eighth, leading five laps in the process.
Cup Series points rank: tie-14th
Season so far: Three DNFs have hampered the No. 8 team in the consistency department, but like Dillon –- his Richard Childress Racing teammate –- other indicators are on an uptick. Only a last-lap collision kept him from winning Bristol's annual dirt-track race, and he was second again earlier this month at Darlington.
Favorable track: Road America. Homestead-Miami -– arguably Reddick's best track -- isn't in the regular-season rotation, so let's shout out a circuit where the No. 8 Chevy driver can flex some of his road-racing talent. Last year at Elkhart Lake, Reddick started fourth and finished eighth, leading five laps in the process.
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ERIK JONES
Cup Series points rank: 17th
Season so far: Jones' stature in the standings is above a pair of winners this year –- Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin. His first year of the Petty GMS Racing era has been marked by glimmers of hope, most notably at Talladega, where he was leading with roughly a quarter-mile left before getting shuffled on the final lap.
Favorable track: Michigan. Sure, Ford teams have won seven straight at the 2-mile track, but Chevrolet's recent performance spike seems primed to end that streak. Perhaps that comes courtesy of Jones, who started second and finished third at Auto Club, the other 2-miler on the schedule, back in February.
Cup Series points rank: 17th
Season so far: Jones' stature in the standings is above a pair of winners this year –- Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin. His first year of the Petty GMS Racing era has been marked by glimmers of hope, most notably at Talladega, where he was leading with roughly a quarter-mile left before getting shuffled on the final lap.
Favorable track: Michigan. Sure, Ford teams have won seven straight at the 2-mile track, but Chevrolet's recent performance spike seems primed to end that streak. Perhaps that comes courtesy of Jones, who started second and finished third at Auto Club, the other 2-miler on the schedule, back in February.
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DANIEL SUÁREZ
Cup Series points rank: 19th
Season so far: The two wins by teammate Ross Chastain may have stolen some spotlight from the season that Suárez has assembled. But four top-10 results have helped offset a pair of DNFs for Suárez, who may have had his best shot at avoiding the winless label before a spin at Circuit of The Americas earlier this spring.
Favorable track: Michigan. Based on his performance at COTA, road courses are ripe for a potential first Cup Series win. But the sweeping 2-mile track at Michigan was home to his first Xfinity victory, part of his title run in that series in 2016. He was fourth at the similar Auto Club Speedway back in February.
Cup Series points rank: 19th
Season so far: The two wins by teammate Ross Chastain may have stolen some spotlight from the season that Suárez has assembled. But four top-10 results have helped offset a pair of DNFs for Suárez, who may have had his best shot at avoiding the winless label before a spin at Circuit of The Americas earlier this spring.
Favorable track: Michigan. Based on his performance at COTA, road courses are ripe for a potential first Cup Series win. But the sweeping 2-mile track at Michigan was home to his first Xfinity victory, part of his title run in that series in 2016. He was fourth at the similar Auto Club Speedway back in February.
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CHRIS BUESCHER
Cup Series points rank: 21st
Season so far: A career-first pole position with an eighth-place run to back it stands as the points-paying highlight for Buescher, who also prevailed in a non-points Daytona qualifying race to kick off the year. Since then, top 10s –- and even top 15s –- have been tough to obtain.
Favorable track: Atlanta. The best finish of the year to date for Buescher has been a seventh that was a matter of survival at the newly reconfigured Georgia track. If superspeedway-style racing is indeed a strength for the new-look RFK Racing team, the No. 17 Ford team stands to benefit here.
Cup Series points rank: 21st
Season so far: A career-first pole position with an eighth-place run to back it stands as the points-paying highlight for Buescher, who also prevailed in a non-points Daytona qualifying race to kick off the year. Since then, top 10s –- and even top 15s –- have been tough to obtain.
Favorable track: Atlanta. The best finish of the year to date for Buescher has been a seventh that was a matter of survival at the newly reconfigured Georgia track. If superspeedway-style racing is indeed a strength for the new-look RFK Racing team, the No. 17 Ford team stands to benefit here.
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BUBBA WALLACE
Cup Series points rank: 22nd
Season so far: Wallace hasn't matched another top-five result since his runner-up finish in the Daytona 500, but he's been in the mix more often than not at superspeedways.
Favorable track: Daytona. Road-course races historically have been a challenge for the fifth-year Cup Series driver, but larger ovals where the aerodynamic draft is king have been a sweet spot. Wallace ran well at Atlanta also, but returning to the 2.5-mile Daytona track for the regular-season finale provides an 11th-hour opportunity.
Cup Series points rank: 22nd
Season so far: Wallace hasn't matched another top-five result since his runner-up finish in the Daytona 500, but he's been in the mix more often than not at superspeedways.
Favorable track: Daytona. Road-course races historically have been a challenge for the fifth-year Cup Series driver, but larger ovals where the aerodynamic draft is king have been a sweet spot. Wallace ran well at Atlanta also, but returning to the 2.5-mile Daytona track for the regular-season finale provides an 11th-hour opportunity.
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RICKY STENHOUSE JR.
Cup Series points rank: 25th
Season so far: Four early exits through 13 races have put Stenhouse in a precarious points slot, but the JTG Daugherty Racing driver has shown signs of righting that sluggish start. Since finishing second at Dover, Stenhouse has registered consecutive eighth-place results (Darlington, Kansas).
Favorable track: Nashville. Stenhouse was sixth there a year ago, and for whatever reason, it's the concrete tracks (Bristol, Dover included) that have created the most promise in recent seasons.
Cup Series points rank: 25th
Season so far: Four early exits through 13 races have put Stenhouse in a precarious points slot, but the JTG Daugherty Racing driver has shown signs of righting that sluggish start. Since finishing second at Dover, Stenhouse has registered consecutive eighth-place results (Darlington, Kansas).
Favorable track: Nashville. Stenhouse was sixth there a year ago, and for whatever reason, it's the concrete tracks (Bristol, Dover included) that have created the most promise in recent seasons.
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BRAD KESELOWSKI
Cup Series points rank: 31st
Season so far: A 100-point penalty for a technical violation has the first-year owner-driver stuck in a considerable deficit. A season-best ninth in the Daytona 500 and a qualifying-race victory stand out for the No. 6 team, which has shown a tendency for finishing in the teens at most events.
Favorable track: Daytona. The year-to-date has been statistically subpar, but Keselowski's mastery of superspeedway racing may come in handy in the clutch. He's scored at least one win in the last 11 seasons, so counting him out now would be premature.
Cup Series points rank: 31st
Season so far: A 100-point penalty for a technical violation has the first-year owner-driver stuck in a considerable deficit. A season-best ninth in the Daytona 500 and a qualifying-race victory stand out for the No. 6 team, which has shown a tendency for finishing in the teens at most events.
Favorable track: Daytona. The year-to-date has been statistically subpar, but Keselowski's mastery of superspeedway racing may come in handy in the clutch. He's scored at least one win in the last 11 seasons, so counting him out now would be premature.
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