Fantasy Fastlane: Going Chevy heavy in Kansas

Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).




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MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
While last year was an anomaly with Larson having 10 victories – the most for any Cup driver in a single season since 2008 – he’s shown speed in 2022, but he just doesn’t have the same results. Case in point: last week at Darlington, the No. 5 car arguably was the quickest on the track, shooting to a massive lead over the first run. Then, a mechanical failure, which was preceded by a spin. Larson was stout at Kansas in 2021, leading 262 of 534 laps (49%). He will likely be a front-runner again this weekend.

MUST START:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Sitting second in points and being one of just two drivers with multiple wins through the first third of the season, it seems as though Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle have a handle on the Next Gen car. With how Darlington finished and the No. 24 car getting moved for the win, one would think Byron will have some additional motivation at Kansas, a track where he has five straight top 10s.

MUST START:
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Reddick is at his best when he can rip the fence, which is a tool drivers can use at Kansas. Picking up his fifth career runner-up result last weekend, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the No. 8 team celebrating in Victory Lane.

MUST START:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Elliott is known for his road course prowess, however, Kansas hasn’t treated him too poorly. Since winning at the 1.5-mile track in the fall of 2018, the No. 9 crew has six top-10 finishes in the last seven Kansas races, five of which have been top fives.

SLEEPER PICK:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
For a while, Truex was the master of mile-and-a-half race tracks when he rejoined the Toyota family in 2017. That includes sweeping the races at Kansas that year. He hasn’t done too bad since then either, earning nine top-10 results in the last 10 Kansas races. While the Next Gen car has created parity, the No. 19 team has still performed well at its historically strong tracks this season. Whether you consider Truex a sleeper not is up to you, but he’s still looking for his first win in 2022.

SLEEPER PICK:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Another Toyota driver is looking for his first win of the season in Bell. He, too, has shown real speed recently with five top 10s in the last seven races. Kansas ranks as a sentimental venue for the Oklahoma native, earning his first Xfinity win at the track in 2017. In four Cup starts at Kansas, he’s scored two top 10s.

SLEEPER PICK:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 500-1
When thinking of performance on mile-and-a-halves, Front Row Motorsports perhaps isn't the first team that comes to mind. But McDowell is on a recent streak of three top 10s in the last four races, including on tracks that include dirt, a superspeedway and Darlington. The No. 34 team has four straight top-20 results at Kansas. If you want to go out on a limb, McDowell isn’t a bad choice.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
We’ve officially reached the point of the season where anything that can go wrong for Hamlin has gone wrong. At some point, that luck will turn and the No. 11 team will be clicking off top 10 after top 10. Kansas, though, isn’t his best track, despite winning two of the past five races there. Save Hamlin for one of his better venues.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Kurt Busch | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota
Odds: 33-1
Like Hamlin, Busch’s luck has to change at some point this season. He looked to be on the verge of getting a top 10 at Darlington before getting caught in a nine-car pileup late in the race. His six top 10s in the last nine Kansas races might be attractive to some players but having five finishes of 28th or worse in the last seven races this year is concerning.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Between Dover and Darlington, Stenhouse has picked up consecutive top 10s for the first time since 2018. That could make the No. 47 car a sleeper this weekend, because if he gets a top-10 result, it would be the first time in his Cup career with three straight top 10s. But in 18 starts at Kansas, the two-time Xfinity champion has a best finish of 11th (four times) and has three finishes of 24th or worse in four starts with JTG.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr.
Garage: Kevin Harvick