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Fantasy Fastlane: Can Chase Elliott get back to winning ways on road courses?
By Dustin Albino for NASCAR.com | Published: 1 Jul, 2022 12
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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).
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Mike Ehrmann | Getty Images
MUST START:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
This weekend will mark the one-year anniversary of Elliott’s last win on a road course. While it’s surprising that he’s winless in his last five starts on road courses – having won four of the previous five – the No. 9 team has been competitive. At Sonoma, a late-race penalty mired Elliott deep in the field, and he still rebounded to eighth. Last year at Road America, he gave the field a 33-position buffer and still dominated the race. Though believing his team still has “work to do” on road courses, there’s a good chance he returns to Victory Lane this weekend, building momentum off his Nashville triumph.
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
This weekend will mark the one-year anniversary of Elliott’s last win on a road course. While it’s surprising that he’s winless in his last five starts on road courses – having won four of the previous five – the No. 9 team has been competitive. At Sonoma, a late-race penalty mired Elliott deep in the field, and he still rebounded to eighth. Last year at Road America, he gave the field a 33-position buffer and still dominated the race. Though believing his team still has “work to do” on road courses, there’s a good chance he returns to Victory Lane this weekend, building momentum off his Nashville triumph.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START:
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
There’s little doubt that Suárez has had the best car in each of the first two road courses this season. While he picked up his coveted first victory at Sonoma, he believes the No. 99 car was better at COTA, leading flag-to-flag in the opening stage. Suárez should be a favorite this week.
Daniel Suárez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
There’s little doubt that Suárez has had the best car in each of the first two road courses this season. While he picked up his coveted first victory at Sonoma, he believes the No. 99 car was better at COTA, leading flag-to-flag in the opening stage. Suárez should be a favorite this week.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
MUST START:
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Cindric is a highly-touted road-course racer, picking up five checkered flags in the Xfinity Series. The No. 2 crew is one of four teams to have top 10s at both COTA and Sonoma in 2022. He was leading at Road America last year when he experienced a mechanical failure.
Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Cindric is a highly-touted road-course racer, picking up five checkered flags in the Xfinity Series. The No. 2 crew is one of four teams to have top 10s at both COTA and Sonoma in 2022. He was leading at Road America last year when he experienced a mechanical failure.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
MUST START:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 50-1
The last time the Cup Series visited a road course, McDowell, arguably, had the best run of his career. In Sonoma, the No. 34 car was a mainstay in the top five and finished third. His road-racing background lends well to wheeling the Next Gen car when turning left and right.
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 50-1
The last time the Cup Series visited a road course, McDowell, arguably, had the best run of his career. In Sonoma, the No. 34 car was a mainstay in the top five and finished third. His road-racing background lends well to wheeling the Next Gen car when turning left and right.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Like Cindric, his Team Penske teammate Blaney is one of the four drivers to have top 10s in each road course event this season. Quietly, Blaney has always been a competitive road racer, picking up the win in the inaugural race at the Charlotte ROVAL. This season, he’s sitting third in points, but needs to win a race before he can be considered a championship threat.
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Like Cindric, his Team Penske teammate Blaney is one of the four drivers to have top 10s in each road course event this season. Quietly, Blaney has always been a competitive road racer, picking up the win in the inaugural race at the Charlotte ROVAL. This season, he’s sitting third in points, but needs to win a race before he can be considered a championship threat.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Going under the radar, Buescher is a fundamentally sound road racer, picking up his first Xfinity win at Road America in 2014. At Sonoma, the No. 17 car was second-in-class, and battled hard with Suárez for the lead multiple times. Don’t overlook Buescher this weekend, especially if you’re trying to save big-name drivers for later in the regular season.
Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Going under the radar, Buescher is a fundamentally sound road racer, picking up his first Xfinity win at Road America in 2014. At Sonoma, the No. 17 car was second-in-class, and battled hard with Suárez for the lead multiple times. Don’t overlook Buescher this weekend, especially if you’re trying to save big-name drivers for later in the regular season.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
With how his season has gone, you probably didn’t expect Keselowski on this list, right? One of the few bright spots for the No. 6 team this year has been road courses, with an average result of 12th between the two events. Not saying Keselowski is going to win – he’s yet to win on a road course in 32 starts – but wouldn’t rule out a top 10.
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 66-1
With how his season has gone, you probably didn’t expect Keselowski on this list, right? One of the few bright spots for the No. 6 team this year has been road courses, with an average result of 12th between the two events. Not saying Keselowski is going to win – he’s yet to win on a road course in 32 starts – but wouldn’t rule out a top 10.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Much was discussed after Sonoma of how poorly the six Toyotas ran. Truex was arguably the most disappointing, having three previous wins in Wine Country. Last year, the No. 19 team managed a ninth-place finish at Road America, but the team’s noted concerns on road courses in 2022 is a cause for concern.
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Much was discussed after Sonoma of how poorly the six Toyotas ran. Truex was arguably the most disappointing, having three previous wins in Wine Country. Last year, the No. 19 team managed a ninth-place finish at Road America, but the team’s noted concerns on road courses in 2022 is a cause for concern.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Logano is tricky because crew chief Paul Wolfe has proven he’ll leave the No. 22 car out to chase stage wins on road courses, picking up 19 stage points at Sonoma. With Logano’s 17th-place finish, that gave him 39 points for the day, tied for the third most in the race. However, the No. 22 team has recently struggled on road courses in the rundown, having just two top-15 finishes in the last six races, including a 15th-place run last year at Road America.
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Logano is tricky because crew chief Paul Wolfe has proven he’ll leave the No. 22 car out to chase stage wins on road courses, picking up 19 stage points at Sonoma. With Logano’s 17th-place finish, that gave him 39 points for the day, tied for the third most in the race. However, the No. 22 team has recently struggled on road courses in the rundown, having just two top-15 finishes in the last six races, including a 15th-place run last year at Road America.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Proving he can lead laps on road courses in the past, Byron’s prowess shouldn’t be questioned when turning left and right. However, the No. 24 team has gone cold since winning at Martinsville in April, earning just one top 10 in the last nine races. His average finish has dipped to 17.1, the worst since his rookie campaign.
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 22-1
Proving he can lead laps on road courses in the past, Byron’s prowess shouldn’t be questioned when turning left and right. However, the No. 24 team has gone cold since winning at Martinsville in April, earning just one top 10 in the last nine races. His average finish has dipped to 17.1, the worst since his rookie campaign.
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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media
MY LINEUP: Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, AJ Allmendinger
Garage: Ross Chastain
Garage: Ross Chastain