Fantasy Fastlane: 2018 Can-Am 500
By RJ Kraft | Friday, November 9, 2018
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays among playoff and non-playoff drivers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Aric Almirola (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a bold play among the playoff drivers? Almirola is your guy. The SHR driver has two straight top 10s at Phoenix and has been a contender on the past two races held at 1-mile range tracks. He has been consistent in the playoffs and must win to advance.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a bold play among the playoff drivers? Almirola is your guy. The SHR driver has two straight top 10s at Phoenix and has been a contender on the past two races held at 1-mile range tracks. He has been consistent in the playoffs and must win to advance.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Busch's 10th-place finish in the spring gave him six top 10s in his last eight Phoenix starts. He has one win here in 2005, but a great run could get him through. One key stat: He is averaging 40.8 points per race in the four 1-mile range events this year -- third-best in the series.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Busch's 10th-place finish in the spring gave him six top 10s in his last eight Phoenix starts. He has one win here in 2005, but a great run could get him through. One key stat: He is averaging 40.8 points per race in the four 1-mile range events this year -- third-best in the series.
Josh Hedges | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Truex never has won at Phoenix but has posted back-to-back top fives. The defending champ is in position to reach the Championship 4. One lingering concern: two straight weeks of having to start at the back; a troubling trend in the homestretch of the season.
Furniture Row Racing, No. 78 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Truex never has won at Phoenix but has posted back-to-back top fives. The defending champ is in position to reach the Championship 4. One lingering concern: two straight weeks of having to start at the back; a troubling trend in the homestretch of the season.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 6.8 average finish is best among all drivers at Phoenix. His last two races here have seen him post back-to-back top-three finishes and he nearly won this race last fall. He also has earned the second-most points among playoff drivers at 1-mile range tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 6.8 average finish is best among all drivers at Phoenix. His last two races here have seen him post back-to-back top-three finishes and he nearly won this race last fall. He also has earned the second-most points among playoff drivers at 1-mile range tracks.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Busch has just one win at ISM Raceway and that came in his second start there. The recent results at the 1-mile track have been solid for him -- five top-five finishes in his past six races and no finish worse than seventh. He is not locked into Miami, so expect a good run.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Busch has just one win at ISM Raceway and that came in his second start there. The recent results at the 1-mile track have been solid for him -- five top-five finishes in his past six races and no finish worse than seventh. He is not locked into Miami, so expect a good run.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is great at Phoenix and can handle the added pressure post-penalty. See his spring win or his win to advance in 2014. The numbers say it all: Six wins in his last 10 starts there -- he has nine total -- and an average finish of 2.3 in that stretch. Hard to go against that.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is great at Phoenix and can handle the added pressure post-penalty. See his spring win or his win to advance in 2014. The numbers say it all: Six wins in his last 10 starts there -- he has nine total -- and an average finish of 2.3 in that stretch. Hard to go against that.
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has top-10 finishes in five of his last six starts at Phoenix. The lone race he finished outside the top 10 was this very race last year where he led 193 laps before a cut tire led to a crash and an end to his playoffs. The veteran is sure to be a popular pick this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has top-10 finishes in five of his last six starts at Phoenix. The lone race he finished outside the top 10 was this very race last year where he led 193 laps before a cut tire led to a crash and an end to his playoffs. The veteran is sure to be a popular pick this weekend.
Sarah Crabill | Getty Images
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Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Jones has three straight top 10s at Phoenix and his 10.0 average finish is third-best among drivers in Sunday's field. What makes the second-year driver real intriguing is his flurry of strong results -- three fourth-place finishes since being eliminated from the playoffs.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: Jones has three straight top 10s at Phoenix and his 10.0 average finish is third-best among drivers in Sunday's field. What makes the second-year driver real intriguing is his flurry of strong results -- three fourth-place finishes since being eliminated from the playoffs.
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Bowman nearly won this race two years ago filling in for the sidelined Dale Jr. The Arizona native led 194 laps from the pole position before settling for a sixth-place result. In his return to the track this spring, he finished 13th. This is a bit of upside play with some risk.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Bowman nearly won this race two years ago filling in for the sidelined Dale Jr. The Arizona native led 194 laps from the pole position before settling for a sixth-place result. In his return to the track this spring, he finished 13th. This is a bit of upside play with some risk.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Daniel Suarez | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: In three starts at ISM Raceway, Suarez has two top 10s and an average finish of 11.0. In his short Cup career, the 2016 Xfinity Series champ has been at home on 1-mile venues as he has recorded eight top 10s in 10 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Dover combined.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Fastlane forecast: In three starts at ISM Raceway, Suarez has two top 10s and an average finish of 11.0. In his short Cup career, the 2016 Xfinity Series champ has been at home on 1-mile venues as he has recorded eight top 10s in 10 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Dover combined.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a surprise pick to play? The rookie Byron is it. He finished 12th at Phoenix in the spring -- outrunning two teammates -- and has an average finish of 14.8 in the 1-mile range races this season. The risk: He has made an early exit in five of his last 10 races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Fastlane forecast: Looking for a surprise pick to play? The rookie Byron is it. He finished 12th at Phoenix in the spring -- outrunning two teammates -- and has an average finish of 14.8 in the 1-mile range races this season. The risk: He has made an early exit in five of his last 10 races.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Clint Bowyer (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's 18.4 average finish at ISM Raceway is the worst among the playoff field. His last top five at the 1-mile track was in 2008 and his top 10 in the spring ended a streak of nine finishes outside the top 12.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer's 18.4 average finish at ISM Raceway is the worst among the playoff field. His last top five at the 1-mile track was in 2008 and his top 10 in the spring ended a streak of nine finishes outside the top 12.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Logano won this race in 2016 to lock into the Championship 4. In the ensuing three races, he has finished no better than 12th. With his Miami spot locked in for next week's Championship 4 battle, I'd look elsewhere.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Logano won this race in 2016 to lock into the Championship 4. In the ensuing three races, he has finished no better than 12th. With his Miami spot locked in for next week's Championship 4 battle, I'd look elsewhere.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Blaney had back-to-back top 10s in his first two starts at ISM Raceway, but he has finished no better then 16th in the three starts since. Penske has struggled here of late, but maybe the new layout changes that.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Fastlane forecast: Blaney had back-to-back top 10s in his first two starts at ISM Raceway, but he has finished no better then 16th in the three starts since. Penske has struggled here of late, but maybe the new layout changes that.
Robert Laberge | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Erik Jones; Garage: Kyle Busch. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
