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Fantasy Fastlane: Big value in Byron for Texas
By RJ Kraft | Published: November 1, 2019 15
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Super Book.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex is locked into the Championship 4 and still is a threat to notch another victory. He has fared well on the repave -- especially when you remove his spring 2018 crash -- an average of 39.3 points. He also has won two of the last five 1.5-milers and scored at least 38 points in four of the last five.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex is locked into the Championship 4 and still is a threat to notch another victory. He has fared well on the repave -- especially when you remove his spring 2018 crash -- an average of 39.3 points. He also has won two of the last five 1.5-milers and scored at least 38 points in four of the last five.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been the best at Texas since the repave prior to the 2017 season -- two wins, four top fives and an average of 39.4 points per race. He has had strong runs here since 2014 as he carries 10 straight top-10 finishes -- with seven top-four finishes and an average finish of 3.9 in that span into the weekend.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has been the best at Texas since the repave prior to the 2017 season -- two wins, four top fives and an average of 39.4 points per race. He has had strong runs here since 2014 as he carries 10 straight top-10 finishes -- with seven top-four finishes and an average finish of 3.9 in that span into the weekend.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is the most recent winner at Texas as he overcame several pit road miscues to score the win. The Texas body of work has been up and down -- he has three wins here, but three finishes outside the top 20 since the repave. He won the most recent 1.5-mile race at Kansas two weekends ago.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin is the most recent winner at Texas as he overcame several pit road miscues to score the win. The Texas body of work has been up and down -- he has three wins here, but three finishes outside the top 20 since the repave. He won the most recent 1.5-mile race at Kansas two weekends ago.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano only has one win at Texas but prior to the spring race, he had a run of six straight top-seven finishes. That stretch includes races on the repaved track in which his average of 37.4 points per race is second best. He has four races of over 40 points in nine races at 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano only has one win at Texas but prior to the spring race, he had a run of six straight top-seven finishes. That stretch includes races on the repaved track in which his average of 37.4 points per race is second best. He has four races of over 40 points in nine races at 1.5-mile tracks this year.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Prior to a 37th-place finish in the spring, Blaney had three straight top-six finishes at Texas. The repaved track has been a good fit for YRB with four races of over 30 points. This team is on the rise and the two 1.5-mile races in the playoffs have shown speed that wasn’t as present earlier in the year.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Prior to a 37th-place finish in the spring, Blaney had three straight top-six finishes at Texas. The repaved track has been a good fit for YRB with four races of over 30 points. This team is on the rise and the two 1.5-mile races in the playoffs have shown speed that wasn’t as present earlier in the year.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In five races at the repaved track, Busch has never finished outside the top 10 and averaged 37.4 points -- most among the non-playoff field. This season, he's averaged 31.9 points at 1.5-milers and had five races of over 30 points.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In five races at the repaved track, Busch has never finished outside the top 10 and averaged 37.4 points -- most among the non-playoff field. This season, he's averaged 31.9 points at 1.5-milers and had five races of over 30 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has finished fourth in three straight Texas races. The 1.5-mile stats have been strong all year with seven races of at least 30 points. The concern: His dreadful results in the playoff races -- scoring over 30 points just once.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones has finished fourth in three straight Texas races. The 1.5-mile stats have been strong all year with seven races of at least 30 points. The concern: His dreadful results in the playoff races -- scoring over 30 points just once.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has averaged 27.3 points at Texas and his 10.7 average finish is sixth-best on the repave. He is on the upswing with six races of at least 30 points in his last eight -- two of those being Vegas and Kan sas -- 1.5-mile tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has averaged 27.3 points at Texas and his 10.7 average finish is sixth-best on the repave. He is on the upswing with six races of at least 30 points in his last eight -- two of those being Vegas and Kan sas -- 1.5-mile tracks.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of Keselowski's last three races at Texas have produced a total of 12 points. He should be considered because of his overall work on 1.5-mile tracks this season with two wins and six races of at least 34 points (out of nine).
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of Keselowski's last three races at Texas have produced a total of 12 points. He should be considered because of his overall work on 1.5-mile tracks this season with two wins and six races of at least 34 points (out of nine).
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson scored 42 points in the spring race en route to finishing fifth. He has seven wins here in his career. The performance has picked up on 1.5-milers with six races of at least 26 points in the past seven at that track type.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson scored 42 points in the spring race en route to finishing fifth. He has seven wins here in his career. The performance has picked up on 1.5-milers with six races of at least 26 points in the past seven at that track type.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson's last five races at Texas, with the repave show why he is the ultimate boom-or-bust play: 2nd, 37th, 36th, 5th and 39th. He had speed at the last 1.5-mile race (Kansas), but the history here is a bit too troublesome.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Larson's last five races at Texas, with the repave show why he is the ultimate boom-or-bust play: 2nd, 37th, 36th, 5th and 39th. He had speed at the last 1.5-mile race (Kansas), but the history here is a bit too troublesome.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas is one of Newman’s worst tracks by average finish (18.7). In five races since the repave, that average jumps to 20.4 with one top 15. He's worth the consideration at Phoenix next weekend, but not here.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Texas is one of Newman’s worst tracks by average finish (18.7). In five races since the repave, that average jumps to 20.4 with one top 15. He's worth the consideration at Phoenix next weekend, but not here.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last two starts at Texas have produced top-10 finishes. The avoid label here has more to do with the snake bit nature he seems to be having lately and so-so results on the intermediates.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last two starts at Texas have produced top-10 finishes. The avoid label here has more to do with the snake bit nature he seems to be having lately and so-so results on the intermediates.
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Stacy Revere | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, William Byron; Garage: Joey Logano. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.