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Fantasy Fastlane: Give me Gibbs at Martinsville
By RJ Kraft | Published: October 25, 2019 15
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has five victories at Martinsville Speedway and his win Sunday at Kansas Speedway gave him five for the 2019 season. The veteran made his bones on short tracks, and his 9.6 average finish is the best among playoff drivers. His average of 37.8 points in the past five races here is fourth best among the field.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has five victories at Martinsville Speedway and his win Sunday at Kansas Speedway gave him five for the 2019 season. The veteran made his bones on short tracks, and his 9.6 average finish is the best among playoff drivers. His average of 37.8 points in the past five races here is fourth best among the field.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-4
Fastlane forecast: Since teaming up with crew chief Adam Stevens, Busch has never finished outside the top five in eight races at Martinsville. He has won twice in that span and led 937 of 4,005 laps in that stretch (23.4 percent). In the past five races there, he has averaged 49 points per race -- the most in the series.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-4
Fastlane forecast: Since teaming up with crew chief Adam Stevens, Busch has never finished outside the top five in eight races at Martinsville. He has won twice in that span and led 937 of 4,005 laps in that stretch (23.4 percent). In the past five races there, he has averaged 49 points per race -- the most in the series.
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: In his past five Martinsville races, Elliott has averaged 36.8 points -- fifth best in Sunday's field. That number would be even better if contact from Hamlin in the closing laps of a 2017 race didn't drop him from the lead to 27th. He had the only car that was able to stay with Brad Keselowski for any period in the spring.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: In his past five Martinsville races, Elliott has averaged 36.8 points -- fifth best in Sunday's field. That number would be even better if contact from Hamlin in the closing laps of a 2017 race didn't drop him from the lead to 27th. He had the only car that was able to stay with Brad Keselowski for any period in the spring.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex was 0-for-80 on short tracks, but he is now 2-for-his-last-3 with two wins at Richmond Raceway. He has been gaining at Martinsville with seven top 10s in his last nine starts there and was a corner away from winning last fall. In the past five races here, he has averaged 39 points -- third best in the field.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex was 0-for-80 on short tracks, but he is now 2-for-his-last-3 with two wins at Richmond Raceway. He has been gaining at Martinsville with seven top 10s in his last nine starts there and was a corner away from winning last fall. In the past five races here, he has averaged 39 points -- third best in the field.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22, Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: First things first, Logano is a great pole pick at Martinsville as he has five in his career including one in the spring race this year. He is also the defending race winner and has averaged 35 points per race on short tracks this year. He is an interesting option here, as is his teammate Ryan Blaney.
Team Penske, No. 22, Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: First things first, Logano is a great pole pick at Martinsville as he has five in his career including one in the spring race this year. He is also the defending race winner and has averaged 35 points per race on short tracks this year. He is an interesting option here, as is his teammate Ryan Blaney.
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins and six top fives in his last seven starts at "The Paperclip." His 45.3 points per race in the past three races there is second best. The plus side of his elimination is he is a slam dunk as a non-playoff play.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins and six top fives in his last seven starts at "The Paperclip." His 45.3 points per race in the past three races there is second best. The plus side of his elimination is he is a slam dunk as a non-playoff play.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has a win and four top-seven finishes in his last five Martinsville races, and he has seen strong success here for the bulk of his career -- 16 top 10s in 27 starts. His 39.7 points per race in the past three races is fifth best.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has a win and four top-seven finishes in his last five Martinsville races, and he has seen strong success here for the bulk of his career -- 16 top 10s in 27 starts. His 39.7 points per race in the past three races is fifth best.
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Streeter Lecka | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson's career stats at Martinsville are well-documented -- nine wins, 19 top fives, 24 top 10s and 2,862 laps led. The recent results here show a car closer to a top-15 machine than top 10, and that gives us a little pause on the play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson's career stats at Martinsville are well-documented -- nine wins, 19 top fives, 24 top 10s and 2,862 laps led. The recent results here show a car closer to a top-15 machine than top 10, and that gives us a little pause on the play.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez has back-to-back top 10s at Martinsville with an average of 28.5 points in that stretch. The hidden value is his performances on short tracks all year: an average of 30 points per race and four top 10s at that track type.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez has back-to-back top 10s at Martinsville with an average of 28.5 points in that stretch. The hidden value is his performances on short tracks all year: an average of 30 points per race and four top 10s at that track type.
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Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: This is another track on the circuit where Newman just has a knack for grinding out finishes, with 16 top 10s in 35 career starts. This season at short tracks, Newman has averaged 30 points with three top 10s in five such races.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: This is another track on the circuit where Newman just has a knack for grinding out finishes, with 16 top 10s in 35 career starts. This season at short tracks, Newman has averaged 30 points with three top 10s in five such races.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In 11 starts at Martinsville, Larson has one finish in the top 10. His next best finish? Fourteenth in the fall 2016 race. The Virginia short track -- not any of the superspeedways -- is his worst based on average finish (23.6).
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In 11 starts at Martinsville, Larson has one finish in the top 10. His next best finish? Fourteenth in the fall 2016 race. The Virginia short track -- not any of the superspeedways -- is his worst based on average finish (23.6).
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In five starts at Martinsville, Jones has finished no better than 12th and has three finishes of 26th or worse. His seventh-place finish at Kansas suggests he is good play for next weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: In five starts at Martinsville, Jones has finished no better than 12th and has three finishes of 26th or worse. His seventh-place finish at Kansas suggests he is good play for next weekend at Texas Motor Speedway.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has one top 10 in seven Martinsville starts. He has averaged only 18 points per race in five short-track starts this year, and his penchant to ruffle feathers in the playoffs could bite him on a short track.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has one top 10 in seven Martinsville starts. He has averaged only 18 points per race in five short-track starts this year, and his penchant to ruffle feathers in the playoffs could bite him on a short track.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Hamlin, Busch, Keselowski, Bowyer; Garage: Elliott. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.