Fantasy Fastlane: Which title contenders do you play at Miami?

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Playoff drivers will not be scored for stage points – same as it is for those drivers in the championship race. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book.


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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 3-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick's 6.6 average finish at Miami is the best among the Championship 4. In his last five starts at the track, he has one win and an average finish of 2.6. Throw in his strong record on intermediates, the us against the world/JGR card he's sure to play and he's atop my playoff board.

Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-4

Fastlane forecast: Truex's last two starts at Miami have seen him win the race and championship in 2017 and finish as the runner up in 2018. His total stats at the track are solid (10.8 average finish) and outside of 26th-place finish at Talladega, he has been the most consistent driver of the playoffs.

Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 3-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's two wins at Miami are the most among the Championship 4 drivers. He did answer the call on Sunday at Phoenix with a blistering final stage to make it here. The 2013 win was his most recent top five at this track but he has six such finishes in nine playoff races in 2019.

Kyle Busch (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 11-4

Fastlane forecast: Busch's overall stats at Miami are pretty pedestrian – 17.4 average finish and four top fives in 14 starts. But in four starts there as a Championship 4 driver: One win and an average finish of 3.3. The up-and-down nature of his postseason is the concerning factor.

Kyle Larson | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: When you think of Larson, you think of the Ganassi driver ripping the high line at Miami. Amazingly, he has never won a Cup race at this track but he’s come damn close with three top fives in his last four races there. Strong runs at Atlanta and Darlington provide added proof to using him here.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: In three starts at Miami, Elliott has never finished worse than 11th and has an average finish of 7.7. He also has the third-most points among non-playoff drivers. He's been hit or miss on intermediates this season and there is this black cat in the room – four finishes of 32nd-or-worse in his past six races.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: The reigning champ will not be defending his title, but his solid Miami record suggests he could defend his race win there from last year. He has four straight top-six finishes and the second-most points among non-playoff plays here. The pause for concern: Subpar results at rougher surfaces this year.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: Since advancing out of the Round of 16, it's been an up-and-down stretch for the 2012 champ. Miami offers a chance to end the season on a high note. He has yet to win there but has five top-seven finishes in his last six starts there. He's notched a win (Atlanta) and a top five (Darlington) at rougher surfaces this year.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 60-1

Fastlane forecast: His Miami numbers have been pedestrian with just two top 10s in his last six starts. However, he does have a victory at the 1.5-mile track in 18 starts. The hidden value here is his performance on 1.5-milers this season with eight races of at least 28 points and an average of 47 points in the races at Atlanta and Darlington.

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 500-1

Fastlane forecast: Surprised to see this name here? Dillon has not finished worse than 14th in his last four Miami starts. The RCR driver has also seen an uptick on his recent 1.5-mile performances and a track with a similar rougher surface – Darlington – has also been one of his better tracks in recent years.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 60-1

Fastlane forecast: In four starts at Miami, Blaney has never finished better than 17th and has an average finish of 22.2. YRB has tended to struggle on other tracks with rougher surfaces in his young career – namely Atlanta and Darlington.

STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Rougher track surfaces have not been kind to Byron thus far. But the real reason for his spot here is the back-to-back 17th-place finishes at Texas and Phoenix – tracks we expected a bit more from him at.

STAY AWAY FROM: Daniel Suarez | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford

Odds: 200-1

Fastlane forecast: It's been an up-and-down season at SHR for Suarez. In two starts at Miami, he has never finished better than 30th. He has struggled down the stretch this year with four finishes of 31st-or-worse in his last seven races.

My lineup heading into the weekend with the caveat of I am unsure what strategy I will be taking with my garage driver as of this writing: Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Joey Logano; Garage: Denny Hamlin (if a playoff driver) or Chase Elliott (if a non-playoff driver). Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's championship race at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.