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Fantasy Fastlane: Is Kansas Harvick’s hunting ground?
By RJ Kraft | Friday, October 18, 2019
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Superbook.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: In the past five races at Kansas, Truex has the second-most points with two wins in that span. He won the most recent race at a 1.5-mile track -- the playoff opener at Las Vegas. The 2017 champ has five races of 38 points or more at 1.5-mile tracks and has been red hot at non-superspeedways this postseason.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: In the past five races at Kansas, Truex has the second-most points with two wins in that span. He won the most recent race at a 1.5-mile track -- the playoff opener at Las Vegas. The 2017 champ has five races of 38 points or more at 1.5-mile tracks and has been red hot at non-superspeedways this postseason.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has the most points over the past five Kansas races -- an average of 46 points per race. This has been one of his best tracks with crew chief Rodney Childers -- two wins, six top fives and laps led in all but one of their 11 starts here. He also has six races of at least 37 points on 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has the most points over the past five Kansas races -- an average of 46 points per race. This has been one of his best tracks with crew chief Rodney Childers -- two wins, six top fives and laps led in all but one of their 11 starts here. He also has six races of at least 37 points on 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Jeff Zelevansky | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: It's been a tale of two Kansas' for Busch. In his first 14 starts here, he had just two top 10s. In his last nine starts, he has a win and six top fives. In the past five Kansas races, he has the third-most points behind Truex and Harvick. The cause for concern is his postseason inconsistency so far.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: It's been a tale of two Kansas' for Busch. In his first 14 starts here, he had just two top 10s. In his last nine starts, he has a win and six top fives. In the past five Kansas races, he has the third-most points behind Truex and Harvick. The cause for concern is his postseason inconsistency so far.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the most recent Kansas winner and has two wins in his Cup career here. He has the fourth-most points at Kansas in the past five races at the track. The intrigue for me with this play is the level of quiet consistency he has opened the postseason with an average of 36.4 points per race.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the most recent Kansas winner and has two wins in his Cup career here. He has the fourth-most points at Kansas in the past five races at the track. The intrigue for me with this play is the level of quiet consistency he has opened the postseason with an average of 36.4 points per race.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the defending Kansas race winner and has three top-four finishes in his past four races there. On the season, he has six races with at least 32 points on 1.5-mile tracks and an average of 36.1 points per race at that track type. He's in win-or-go home mode and the speed has been there of late.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the defending Kansas race winner and has three top-four finishes in his past four races there. On the season, he has six races with at least 32 points on 1.5-mile tracks and an average of 36.1 points per race at that track type. He's in win-or-go home mode and the speed has been there of late.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins -- both in playoff races -- at Kansas. He won the pole in last year's playoff race and led 100 laps. The value with playing the reigning champ comes in two forms -- his position in the standings makes him likely to be hunting stage points (plus-18 to the cutline) and his strength on 1.5-mile tracks all year (average of 38.1 points per race).
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins -- both in playoff races -- at Kansas. He won the pole in last year's playoff race and led 100 laps. The value with playing the reigning champ comes in two forms -- his position in the standings makes him likely to be hunting stage points (plus-18 to the cutline) and his strength on 1.5-mile tracks all year (average of 38.1 points per race).
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman comes into this race as the first driver below the Round of 8 cutline. Kansas has been a strong track for him with Hendrick -- he was the runner up in the spring and has three top 10s in his past four races there. He also has scored over 40 points in three of the past five races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman comes into this race as the first driver below the Round of 8 cutline. Kansas has been a strong track for him with Hendrick -- he was the runner up in the spring and has three top 10s in his past four races there. He also has scored over 40 points in three of the past five races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's recent Kansas results are promising for fantasy players. In his last nine starts there, Busch has six top-eight finishes and the fourth-most points. Plus, he's scored at least 28 points in six 1.5-mile track races this year.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's recent Kansas results are promising for fantasy players. In his last nine starts there, Busch has six top-eight finishes and the fourth-most points. Plus, he's scored at least 28 points in six 1.5-mile track races this year.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones is a play to make if you need to make up ground. The bad: He has single-digit points in five of the past six races. The good: He has an average of 38.7 points -- most among non-playoff plays in the past three Kansas races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones is a play to make if you need to make up ground. The bad: He has single-digit points in five of the past six races. The good: He has an average of 38.7 points -- most among non-playoff plays in the past three Kansas races.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In the past four races at Kansas, Almirola has finished no worse than 12th with three top 10s and an average of 30.8 points per race. He has scored at least 30 points in five of eight races on 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In the past four races at Kansas, Almirola has finished no worse than 12th with three top 10s and an average of 30.8 points per race. He has scored at least 30 points in five of eight races on 1.5-mile tracks this year.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has three wins at Kansas but only three top 10s in his last eight races there. Prior to a Talladega wreck, "Seven-Time" had an average of 30.3 in the previous four races and has shown an uptick in speed at intermediates.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has three wins at Kansas but only three top 10s in his last eight races there. Prior to a Talladega wreck, "Seven-Time" had an average of 30.3 in the previous four races and has shown an uptick in speed at intermediates.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has one win and six top fives in 22 Kansas starts. The 15.7 average finish is his worst among the remaining tracks. He’s pretty much locked into the next round, where he will be a staple in my lineup, but he won't be in it this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has one win and six top fives in 22 Kansas starts. The 15.7 average finish is his worst among the remaining tracks. He’s pretty much locked into the next round, where he will be a staple in my lineup, but he won't be in it this weekend.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus have played the stage point game brilliantly, but now the young driver is basically in a win-or-go-home scenario. It's hard to see a victory at Kansas when his best finish there is 20th.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus have played the stage point game brilliantly, but now the young driver is basically in a win-or-go-home scenario. It's hard to see a victory at Kansas when his best finish there is 20th.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez notched a top 10 in his first Kansas start and since then he has not finished better than 14th in the past four races there. Frankly, there are better plays to make at this track and for any intermediate left on the schedule.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez notched a top 10 in his first Kansas start and since then he has not finished better than 14th in the past four races there. Frankly, there are better plays to make at this track and for any intermediate left on the schedule.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola; Garage: Martin Truex Jr. Check back for our “Fantasy Update” piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
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