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Fantasy Fastlane: 2019 Toyota Owners 400
By RJ Kraft | Published: April 11, 2019 17
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays, sleepers and plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Westgate Sports Book.
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: There are lots of reasons to play the 2015 champ. He swept the Richmond races in 2018 and has six Cup wins at the 0.75-mile track. Based on average finish (6.9), this is his second-best track. Build around this driver and focus on the rest of your lineup.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: There are lots of reasons to play the 2015 champ. He swept the Richmond races in 2018 and has six Cup wins at the 0.75-mile track. Based on average finish (6.9), this is his second-best track. Build around this driver and focus on the rest of your lineup.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: By his standards, Harvick has been in a funk with no laps led since Las Vegas. History suggests Richmond is the place for him to turn it around with three Cup victories. He has scored the most points -- with five top fives -- in the past three years here.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: By his standards, Harvick has been in a funk with no laps led since Las Vegas. History suggests Richmond is the place for him to turn it around with three Cup victories. He has scored the most points -- with five top fives -- in the past three years here.
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Both of Logano's wins at Richmond have come in the spring race. This track is his second-best among regular-season tracks based on average finish (11.6). The issue lies in uses -- and how much you weigh past history verses new rules results.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Both of Logano's wins at Richmond have come in the spring race. This track is his second-best among regular-season tracks based on average finish (11.6). The issue lies in uses -- and how much you weigh past history verses new rules results.
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Truex is 0-for-80 on short tracks but he has come oh-so-close to winning at Richmond. He had the second-most stage points at this track last year with two stage wins. In the past five races here, Truex has led 33.7 percent of the laps.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Yes, Truex is 0-for-80 on short tracks but he has come oh-so-close to winning at Richmond. He had the second-most stage points at this track last year with two stage wins. In the past five races here, Truex has led 33.7 percent of the laps.
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Virginia native has three wins at Richmond with the most recent in 2016. He also has six top-six finishes in the past seven races there. His hot start to '19 and that this is his second-best track based on average finish (9.6) make him a must-start.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The Virginia native has three wins at Richmond with the most recent in 2016. He also has six top-six finishes in the past seven races there. His hot start to '19 and that this is his second-best track based on average finish (9.6) make him a must-start.
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has a win, four top fives and seven top 10s in his last 10 Richmond starts. Over the past six races there, he has the second-most points. Uses are the issue but in his favor, this is his best track since 2017 of the remaining regular-season venues.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has a win, four top fives and seven top 10s in his last 10 Richmond starts. Over the past six races there, he has the second-most points. Uses are the issue but in his favor, this is his best track since 2017 of the remaining regular-season venues.
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott earned the third-most points at Richmond last year and averaged 43 points in the two races buoyed by two top fives. An early race incident hampered him at Bristol, but make no mistake, the young star's been one of the best on short tracks.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott earned the third-most points at Richmond last year and averaged 43 points in the two races buoyed by two top fives. An early race incident hampered him at Bristol, but make no mistake, the young star's been one of the best on short tracks.
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Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has three wins at Richmond but none since 2008. The seven-time champion has seven top 10s in his last nine starts there. He's on the upswing with an average of 37.5 points in the past two races of '19 making for an intriguing play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Johnson has three wins at Richmond but none since 2008. The seven-time champion has seven top 10s in his last nine starts there. He's on the upswing with an average of 37.5 points in the past two races of '19 making for an intriguing play.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has two wins at the 0.75-mile track and averaged 35.0 points here last year with two top 10s. The real value is in Bowyer's strong performances at short tracks -- Martinsville and Bristol. He's averaged 40 points in those two races this year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has two wins at the 0.75-mile track and averaged 35.0 points here last year with two top 10s. The real value is in Bowyer's strong performances at short tracks -- Martinsville and Bristol. He's averaged 40 points in those two races this year.
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SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver that earned the most stage points at Richmond in 2018 and averaged 41 points in both races. This was one of his better tracks at Petty. I look for a big bounce back.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver that earned the most stage points at Richmond in 2018 and averaged 41 points in both races. This was one of his better tracks at Petty. I look for a big bounce back.
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SLEEPER PICK: Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: It's weird to consider Larson a sleeper but that's where his slow start has put us. Based on average finish, this is one of his five best tracks and the site of his lone non-2-mile-win.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: It's weird to consider Larson a sleeper but that's where his slow start has put us. Based on average finish, this is one of his five best tracks and the site of his lone non-2-mile-win.
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SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez has found a rhythm in his new home with three straight top 10s at SHR and an average of 35 points per race in that stretch. The good run should continue: He has three top 12s at Richmond.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 60-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez has found a rhythm in his new home with three straight top 10s at SHR and an average of 35 points per race in that stretch. The good run should continue: He has three top 12s at Richmond.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron averaged 27.5 points in the two races at Richmond in 2018 and scored 13 stage points in the spring race. He has been qualifying well of late and averaging 27.5 points in the past two races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron averaged 27.5 points in the two races at Richmond in 2018 and scored 13 stage points in the spring race. He has been qualifying well of late and averaging 27.5 points in the past two races.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: While Blaney has been strong with four top fives in the past five races of 2019, Richmond is his worst track (27.0 avg. finish). He has finished no better than 18th, so owners are best serve to save.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: While Blaney has been strong with four top fives in the past five races of 2019, Richmond is his worst track (27.0 avg. finish). He has finished no better than 18th, so owners are best serve to save.
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STAY AWAY FROM: Paul Menard | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Menard is fresh off his best result of 2019 -- a sixth at Bristol. Richmond is unlikely to see a repeat of that result as he has just one top 10 in 24 starts and seven straight finishes outside the top 20.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 300-1
Fastlane forecast: Menard is fresh off his best result of 2019 -- a sixth at Bristol. Richmond is unlikely to see a repeat of that result as he has just one top 10 in 24 starts and seven straight finishes outside the top 20.
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola; Garage: Daniel Suarez. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Saturday's race at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
with your lineups and questions ahead of Saturday's race at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.